Ishgard' s archbisschop

[Saikou]

We don't know how long a Primal would have to remain manifested to have a notable effect on global aether, let alone what that effect would look like. It is entirely possible that the "Coerthas Winter" exists entirely BECAUSE of a very localized depletion of aether resulting in a major disturbance of that region's weather. Again, we do not know the effects.

[Catapult]

On the Garleans, Gaius' modus operandi is Divide and Conquer.

If Ishgard wants to be isolationist, that works to his advantage. And so he applies Napoleon's rule: Never interrupt your opponent while they are making a mistake.

[Alberel]

There was an interview at E3 with Ferne and a question was asked regarding Shiva's beast tribe:

GE: We know that, with Shiva, there is going to be a new Beast Tribe. What is the process for creating an entire new race for Hydaelyn?

MCKF: First off, you’re assuming a lot with that first sentence there. I can’t go into it in detail, but you’ll start to find out about it in 2.3 with the story we start to tell about Shiva.

Whilst in a literal sense Ferne has merely shot down the existence of a new tribe, to me this reads more like Shiva doesn't actually have a tribe the way the other primals do. Primals require faith and zealous worship in order to perpetuate their existence and gain power though (barring the elder primals but we've seen nothing so far to indicate Shiva is an elder primal) so if she does not have a tribe what would she have?

Well what's the most zealous group of worshipers in the game right now that aren't a beast tribe? The Ishgardians.

"But the Ishgardians do not worship Shiva!" I hear you say. No, they worship Halone.

"There's also nothing to indicate that the Ishgardian populace is tempered!" Well... actually there is. The Ishgardians show a devout zeal in worship of Halone to the point that their entire civilisation is built upon a theocratic government. They are the very definition of 'religious extremists' going so far as to shun any that do not share their views and torture those they believe to have strayed or been 'corrupted'. If anything they show the clearest signs of being tempered out of any of the races in the game. People just overlook it because Halone isn't a primal.

Now if Shiva were summoned somewhere/somehow and posed as Halone in Elezen form (because of course the Ishgardian deity couldn't possibly be one of the other lesser races) what do you think Ishgard would do? Well Shiva actually fits all the same descriptions as Halone, even down to sharing the same element so... they'd worship her. Do the worshipers of a primal need to know the primal's identity in order to provide it the aether necessary to perpetuate its summoning? We don't know but given the way we've seen summoning to work (aetherial constructs seem to take a form based on belief/expectation/imagination) I'd say no.

Each of the primals has a different personality but one we're distinctly missing is a subtle manipulator. I think that will be Shiva. Is the Holy See tempered? Most likely. I believe he's tempered by Shiva who he believes to be Halone. Of course at that point the theory begs the question: "Why would Shiva want an endless war against Dravania?" I'm not too sure on that one. But given that the expansion is associated with 'Sky' and we've been told that Shiva's story is the one to lead into the expansion Shiva vs Dravania makes a LOT of sense in terms of the leadup to whatever comes next.

[Anonymoose]

Many of these theories aren't accounting for how long Ishgard has been a Holy See. If they were the People's Republic of Ishgard up until the Astral Era start destabilizing (which is when primals can be summoned), the idea that they're all tempered would have more supporting evidence. They've been fanatically religious for a long time. If people want to make claims that Shiva's been in control of Ishgard, it's much stronger evidence that 1562 is when Primals first started showing up and 1563 is when Ishgard suddenly withdrew from the Eorzean Alliance and isolated themselves entirely to focus on their holy war against the Dravanians.

[A_Magical_Unicorn_Rider]

Maybe Shiva just thinks of dragons as a lesser race? After all, Hitler was provoked by Himler into thinking/idealizing the same thing with another race…

[Kearney]

Maybe, Shiva is playing both sides?

Consider it like this: Ishgardians attack Dragon Horde, Dragon Horde kill Ishgardians and vice versa. Shiva gets worshiped by both sides under her so many alleged alias' (which we think she has tricked the Ishgardians into believing her to be Hallone incarnate) ;P

[Darksword]

If Shiva is running Ishgard, she has reason to hate the dragons: They were the ones responsible for guarding the seal that kept her trapped in Silvertear Lake for eons.

As far as the Dravanians not necessarily being evil, there is a GC Leve in Mor Dhona where you kill a heretic for Ishgard. Over the course of the fight he talks, basically telling you that you're a puppet and being manipulated, and that you are the real bad guy.

[Saikou]

Moose, is that true? If so, can you point me to an official source? I believe you, but still... curiosity, you know. For arguments that Ishgard is tempered that fit with this. Shiva is not a Silvertear Primal. Othard held out against Garlemald for a significant period of time because they were able to summon their own Primals. We have no evidence for this, but it's a highly unlikely possibility that Shiva has been with the Holy See since it's been a Holy See. For those of us who played FFXI, remember Gunther Schultz? He played the part of one of his descendants because he had become immortal. Our lady of silver cosmetics could be much the same. Highly unlikely. But it's been done before. Even if the consequences of Schultz's plotline were much more limited.

[Anonymoose]

If so, can you point me to an official source?

1563
The Imperial Garlean Army withdraws to Ala Mhigo and begins construction of a defensive wall.
The Age of Calm begins. Ishgard suddenly withdraws from the Eorzean Alliance.

My comment about how this could be support for the Temper theory is just off the cuff. Personally, I think Ishgard saw that the Garleans were no longer an immediate threat and decided to refocus on the dragons, who are and have always been an immediate threat. As for their religiosity, I've yet to see anything that suggests they're not just falling back hard on religion because that's what people tend to do when they live in contested areas on War's doorstep for over a thousand years. Who knows, maybe we'll see something that'll make me eat my hat in 2.3, eh?

Just now I made mention of Eorzea's future. But first I must speak of the past, for that which is to come was ever the product of that which has been. Ten years ago, an event took place which shook the very foundation of Eorzea: a tribe of beasts summoned forth a primal. So began the spread of summoning till there was not a tribe in this world to whom the practice remained unknown.

I've always taken this to mean that from the time the Sixth Astral Era was established, no primal was summoned in Eorzea until the Fall of the Keeper. Primals were definitely summoned before this in Othard, and that is literally all we know about it. We don't know what primals they were, whether it was beast tribes or regular people that summoned them, if the Ascians were involved - nada.

[Catapult]

I'm certainly in agreement that Ishgard's isolationism since not long after the fall of the Keeper is significant and do like the idea of it being linked to Shiva's influence.
The appearance of Midgardsormr would have likely been viewed as a major event, which could have led to some significant prayer to their guardian deity, the warrior maiden of ice.

(And Moose, please don't eat your hat, because darksteel isn't good for you.)