Do you think the devs intended multi-flare blm?

[Raenryong]

The pictures aren't that helpful, unfortunately :x all it illustrates is burst damage, which is obviously not the same as DPS. I know you're obviously opposed to parsers so won't get those though

Crit% is irrelevant if we're just comparing base rotations, unless one skill has higher native crit as it is a constant. Crit damage increases your average output by a factor of [1 + ((Critrate%/100) * (Critdamage%/100))] - where Critdamage%/100 is a constant due to how they are handled in this game. As it is a constant multiplier unless Critrate% changes, it can be neglected when doing comparisons.

You are right in saying that you can make more accurate (but specific) models if you impose a certain amount of moves - in which case your rotation would be superior (since you want AF3 prior to Flares). The rotation I listed is superior in general situations, however.

Starting with Fire2 is no problem since you can Quelling Strikes it and you only need to hit 4 mobs with the first Fire2 to make it exceed the other rotation.

"Equation math" is very powerful as long as you take account of conditions and scenarios properly. A mathematical model is only as powerful as how specific/sophisticated it is. A powerful one is much better than a parse - parses are merely used to collect data (ie - does the (controlled) reality reflect the predictions of this model? If not, refine the model).