Yeah, you're doing exactly what I thought. You're not "pre-emptively pressing the Fire III button." You're spamming the Fire III button for over half a GCD period (your firestarter procs come up at about the same time mine do) until the Firestarter proc occurs, which is not only a delay between your Fire and Fire III, but also means that since you do this everytime, you're causing yourself to lose at least that much time every rotation because you wait for there not to be a firestarter proc before you switch over to Bliz III.
also, to adjust my earlier assessment with appropriate time lost in the delay, that's about 1.25-1.5 seconds per proc. With the previously mentioned 20 procs over X amount of time, that's 25-30 seconds of time lost, which is around 10-12 GCDs (going on a 2.5 GCD, more GCDs if you have any significant amount of spell speed). 10-12 Fire I's at 600-700 each (low estimate, I think) gives you 6000-8400 damage, compared to the 5000, I think it was, that you were saying you get from your method? If we estimate an average of 30% of those being Firestarted Fire IIIs (estimating below the supposed 40% proc rate because not every GCD gained will be Fire I necessarily), that's 3-4 Fire IIIs at 1k+ damage each, which adds another 900-1600 damage onto that 6000-8400. On some X time periods, it might come out a bit below that damage estimate because of Bliz IIIs being used in some of the "extra GCDs," but then there can also be Thundercloud procs filling in some of those extra GCDs, too, and the occasional Swiftcast>Flare>Convert as well.


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