As Yoshi said, its entirely RNG dependent.
Here's my story.
Took me about a week, maybe 2-3 hours each day, to get my first 5 atma. Dont remember this part that well, because I could not play for the next 2 weeks due to finals.
Got back into it and back to farming atma. Lets see what readily comes to mind...
Upper La Nosc, 7.5 hours straight.
Southern Thanalan, 2 days... probably 12 hours or more.
Central Thanalan... 1 fate... beat 1 fate and got the drop >.>
Eastern Thanalan, 10-20 fates.
Western La Nosc... I think its Western, the Aleport area... 7 hours again for the last one.
So, yeah... its entirely RNG dependent. For what its worth, during the 2 days of farming for Atma of the Scorpion, I did try the "JP" method of following the server time clock for a few hours... nada.
Personally, though getting 2 of my atma after 1 and 10-20 fates is nice, it is overwhelming counterbalanced by my spending nearly 3 days worth of time to get 3 other atma.
If it is possible, I would rather get rid of the rng component and simplify the system in the following manner:
Jalzahn brings some of his equipment with him, and gives you a set of 30-40-50 vials, devs pick one... These vials will draw out and collect the essence of slain enemies from fates. Beat a fate, fill a vial, and each vial WILL be indexed with the appropriate zone name, so you need to do all 12 zones.
Once all of the vials are filled, you can bring them back to Jalzahn, who will mix them into a semi-stable crystallizing structure... but it is incomplete. You must now RETURN to the area where you filled the vials, and complete one more fate in the area to enable the semi-stable crystallizing structure to uh... fully crystallize... and become to atma for the zone.
Of course, feel free to keep the drop rate of the atma themselves where it is. This way someone "could" get lucky and get their atma quickly, while someone who doesnt get lucky can do 51 fates, and get it.
51*12, 612 fates is still quite a grind... but it will be a grind with a sense of progression, not simply praying to the unforgiving RNG gods.


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