Quote Originally Posted by Allyrion View Post
That's just not how probability works. The exact same? Really?
Of course there's luck involved and I'd prefer a progress I can track as well. But that doesn't excuse making false statements/severe hyperbole.
Actually, it sort of is.

These are independent events. The probability of drop is unchanged by the number of FATEs someone has done. While we do EXPECT to see that a drop will occur over a sufficiently large sample--in statistics we could only predict this with about 95% accuracy. This means that inevitably someone will fall into those cracks. The chance to get the item is the same no matter if its your 1st or 3000th FATE, and while there is a reasonable expectation that you'd get the drop well before reaching 3,000--there is no such guarantee.

I'm willing to bet you that someone, somewhere, is going to do at least 5 times as many FATEs as you will have to in order to get their weapon. I spent 16 hours on my first drop.