First xp is based totally on quality. It's always difficulty + quality gained (end quality - starting quality).
SP is not only RNG. It's based indeed by your crafting.
Example: Finish an item with a blow is reducing the sp gained by estimated 100. Is the blow 1 step before, it could bring you 100 more sp.
I havn't done a total calculation, but it's more or less like this.
Some abbreviations:
SSO = successful synth without loosing quality
SSW = successful synth with loosing quality
FSO = Failed synth without elemental blow, (lost more quality than making progress)
FSB = Failed synth with elemental blow ( no progress gained, lots of quality lost)
WO= white orb
YO = yellow orb
RO = red Orb
+U = Orb is unstable, element out of control.
+S = with sparks
There is a base SP value by rank difficulty + (all your synthing progress in total/number of steps)
If you can finish the item, the formula above will be multiplicated by 2,5.
If you fail your job, the multiplicator is 1.
The synthing progress:
WO and SSO = gives onetime SP (quality+progress gained at this step - durability lost)
YO and SSO = gives 1,5 times SP (quality+progress gained at this step - durability lost)
RO and SSO = gives 2,0 times SP (quality+progress gained at this step - durability lost)
For +U the multiplier is 0,5 more.
For + S i have no idea.
For SSW, the same calculation is correct: quality has a negative value.
FSO and FSB: Not totally sure . I think the calculation is the same. As i said i have only calculated some synths and havnt parsed 1000.
Touch Up: Isn't calculated. SP is set after reaching 100%
Hasty hands: Half SP (probabably calculated at using normal synth untill finishing item)
There could be an RNG difficulty impact (multiplier) on SP. Sometimes when all others around you fail, you get more SP, implicating high or difficult RNG at this time.
But after investigating my synthing progress, the formula seems to be correct.
Because of the RNG, you got more unstable or red orbs, indicating you get a higher multiplier.

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