Forbidden Melding Rates

[Eld_Deran]

I fully understand forbidden melding is a big risk, but considering the percentages being shown for success rates something is very wrong.

I just failed 20 melds in a row for a 22% chance of success. That means it is less than 1 in 20, which means less than 5%. How does SE calculate a 22% success rate?!

At 22% about 4 out of my 20 attempts should have succeeded.

[dspguy]

Small sample size.

You could flip a coin 20 times and get heads 15 times and it wouldn't be abnormal or a roll a die 20 times and get a six to show up 10 times and it wouldn't be abnormal.

Anecdotal: I made a gryphonskin ring a while ago. I had a 22ish% chance to meld vitality II on there. I went 1/20. It was pretty bad luck. Very bad luck.

Next day I made a Gryphonskin wristband. I successfully melded the 40% chance, 22% chance 18% and 11% (or whatever the numbers were). But I went 4/4 on overmelds. That was also against the odds.

I don't doubt the RNG. But just like any RNG, it can land on "bad" seemingly often in a small sample size.

[Eld_Deran]

It seems the random number generator does not properly spread out the numbers, it seems to group them in a bunch. I have experienced this in crafting a lot.

[Naylia]

Nobody seems to complain that RNG is broken when they meld a 19% on the first try

[Wadoka]

Yeah, it only looks bad if you haven't learned about statistics. That 22% chance is really only exactly 22% as your number of attempts goes to infinity

Rolling a d20, no matter how many times you roll it, each successive roll only has a 1/20 chance of producing a specific number. It's the old "coin flip" example writ larger.

[Eld_Deran]

This is a game, it is not reality. At least they can spread it out more even instead of having to do a 1000 melds before the sample size become big enough that the percentages start to align. In reality we have no control over randomness, but in game SE has full control over this.

[Axlle10]

22% success rate MEANS 22% on THAT MELD ONLY. meaning there is no cumulative statistic that goes into it. it is a flat rate 22% success. 100 could fail before you get 1. also you could get it first try. Its all RNG and you will only hate it way more in the future XD

[WillTheNinja]

You're the victim of a very common mis-perception in probability, the so called 'memoryless' random independent event.

In other words, every time the rng kicks in there is a set probability (lets say 22%), and if it comes up false (so, it was a 'failure'), and you try again, there is still ONLY a 22% chance of success.

Now, it may seem unfair that you got 20 melds that didn't workout in a row, but really, you could get an infinite number of failures in a row, because the probability is memory less, and doesn't care what came before it when it's a random independent event such as this. (Ok, not really infinite since you could make the probability for successive failures would approach 0, you'd get it eventually assuming a continuous infinite time scale, but you get the idea).

That all being said, there is a certain probability that can be applied to determine the odds of rolling 20 fails in a row given a probability of 22% for each event, and it would be relatively low.

[Eld_Deran]

Sigh.

It's still annoying!

:P

[OSUBuckeye4]

You're the victim of a very common mis-perception in probability, the so called 'memoryless' random independent event.

Exactly.

I like to think of it like a roulette wheel.

The previous spins have no bearing on the next spin.


Casinos try to trick/manipulate people into attempting to see some type of pattern by displaying the results of the last 20-100 spins... but, that's not the case at all.

Just because the number 3 hasn't hit in 90 spins, it doesn't mean that it's "due" to hit 3. Nor does it mean that 3 is a "cold" number and you should not wager on it.

Just because the number 7 has hit 5 times in the last 20 spins, it doesn't mean that it's any more or less likely to hit on the next spin. It's not a "hot" number, it's just a number on the wheel.

You have the same probabily of hitting a winning wager on 3 as you do of hitting a winning wager on 7. Previous spins don't factor into the next spin in any way.