CT and Coil drop rates

[Magnesium02]

However, I was wondering what the drop chances for each piece of loot in a given loot pool is.

Crystal Tower Loot Spreadsheet
Coil Loot Spreadsheet

As far as Crystal Tower goes. Chests 1 & 2 contain Hands, Feet and Waist and Chests 3 & 4 contain Legs, Body and Head. The loot is distributed evenly, so one chest will have 2 pieces of 3 sets and 1 of the other 3, then the second chest will have 1 piece of the first 3 sets and 2 of the second 3. All pieces have a 11.11% (1/9) chance of dropping.

As for Coil of Bahamut, the loot is not evenly distributed, as some turns have more of one type of gear then the other. In addition each chest has its own set loot pool, so within the turn the individual chests might favour one type over the other. As you can see below, Turn 1 favours DRG (and Tank if you consider the shield), Turn 2 favours Tank and Caster, Turn 4 favours MNK and Healer, Turn 5 favours BRD. I didn't infuse the weapons chest as that is Job only, not job group type, but they are 11.11% flat chance each

[Marishi-Ten]

snip

Right, I've seen the actual drop table index and I'm not questioning that they are part of the table.

What I call into question is the rate in which they drop. Random Generation isn't really random. There is a logic the server is using to calculate the drops. This algorithm is what I'm questioning is (from what I heard) there are some FC's that haven't seen a, let's say Allagan Tunic of Healing or Aiming. Ever. Some of the FC's that I've heard about have been running coil since the first or second week of release. They are nearing a statistic anomaly.

I'd be interested in seeing some sample coding from Square on this so we as a community can confirm the coding is NTF. It won't happen I know and no community member or dev will respond to this thread, but at least it's out on the forums in the public.

[diulalasing]

I am kind of against token system

It is exciting to open a box to find trash you don't need, because it makes you want to come back next week

If some sort of token introduced, i think after a few weeks, most people will have all their BiS from coil, and go XX it, whats the point of the game, and just quit

[lolirocco]

I am kind of against token system

It is exciting to open a box to find trash you don't need, because it makes you want to come back next week

If some sort of token introduced, i think after a few weeks, most people will have all their BiS from coil, and go XX it, whats the point of the game, and just quit

YOU ARE ONE OF THEM! WOLF IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING

[Empressia]

Lemme see, i've seen ct drop 4 brds or 4 caster gears in one single damned run, but never seen the same with coil 1-5

[DefendPopPunk]

Not sure how common this is for some of you, but last night I was in a run where all 4 drops were monk pieces. RNG is what it is, but I'm all for changes if it could help reduce such a thing occurring with any sort of frequency in the future.

[melisande]

Did 1 - 4 last two weeks, only gear that dropped were BRD/DRG/MNK accessories, not even gear. Really starting to get frustrating.

[Malygne]

While anecdotes may support an argument, small sample sizes are not really mathematically useful. I'd like to try to focus this thread back to that sort of discussion. A sample size of < 50 drops is really not going to be revealing since statistically speaking, it is perfectly reasonable to have wide variation in such a small sample. However, if we see some trend still showing up in 500 drops, then this would be entering the realm of statistical anomaly (or the droprates indeed are not as we expect).

There seems to be an assumption that droprates are uniform but this is exactly my question. Does anyone have evidence (not small anecdotes) to support this?

[Takophiliac]

This thread is a couple weeks old, but i'll add another anecdote to the mix.

Last week i ran LotA 50 times trying to get 1 pair of monk pants. I ran 47 runs on monk, and 3 runs as warrior. All of my runs counted in the 50 included the behemoth king chest which drops the pants.

In the entire week, that chest had monk pants in it only once, and of course, it was when i was running warrior.

[Takophiliac]

Editorially, i'd like to say something possibly blasphemous. I believe that, historically, square games have had either an up-front or hidden luck stat. I'm not saying that there is a luck stat itself in FF x|v, however it is reasonably simple to code something like:
(hash(list of character names in pt) + hash(list of jobs in pt))/party size = Luck

That result could then be used to influence drop tables. I think Time of day or in game date may affect it as well. (again, only anecdotally)
I only say something so far fetched because in my 50 runs, Some of them were with FC people. A number of them were with the same FC people. In that condition, the loot seems to be the same or nearly identical for all 4 chests several runs in a row. Changing the people seems to change the loot table sometimes. One week we ran several runs early on, and then round about Thursday the whole loot table seemed to have changed.