Before analyzing the Market please read.

[Xystic]

Before community members continue to try and analyze the market, whether it is good or bad, they need to understand a few things.

The only way we can tell if the market is doing poorly or good is if we have sufficient information proving it. The key information we need to do that is the gil in circulation numbers.

Gil in Circulation - Is the total amount of gil being spent everyday. Not the overall amount of gil a server has.

Anyone who wants to claim the market is doing bad or good must have these numbers to present because the following conditions can actually be occurring now:

-If the prices of all goods drop and the gil in circulation remains the same, that indicates that the gil has been spread evenly in the market and not a majority on the 20 hottest items pre 2.1.

-If the prices of all goods drop and the gil in circulation continues to increase, that means not only is the gil in circulation spread out, consumption of these items have also increased or gil generation is now taking effect.

-If the prices of all goods drop and the gil in circulation drops, that indicates that the market is struggling. From what source, we don't know.

Because we don't have the gil in circulation numbers, we can't say the economy is 1 of the 3 above.

We are only concerned with gil in circulation numbers because when it comes to making money off the market boards, the only gil you get, is the gil in circulation.

-Even if a server has x100 amount the normal amount of gil, for this example lets say 100 billion , if the gil in circulation has come to 0 gil spent everyday. It means the economy is dead. In this case you have no chance at making any gil.

-Even if a server only has x2 amount the normal amount of gil, 2 billion, but 200 million gil is spent daily in the markets, the economy is alive, meaning in a day you have a chance at that 200 million.

So before I have to repeatedly correct hundreds of posts everyday. Please understand, at the current time, we have no information to prove which way the economy is swinging. The only people who have these numbers are SE.

However, the only thing we know, is that yoshida forecasted 80% of FC's to be able to buy atleast a small FC-lot within the next 3 months, meaning he's going to have to keep gil in circulation numbers up for this in order to happen.

[OSUBuckeye4]

Gil in circulation is up, gil being spent in the market (on everything but housing) is down.

How do I know this? Beacuse I play the game.

I don't need access to SE's source coding to see this. It's very clear.

I play the game and every day I log out with more money than I started with. I know most people in my FC are in the same boat because I talk to them.

The fact is, in 2.1, daily quests/treasure maps quests give out more gil than it costs to repair equipment/transport. Even running low level dungeons is profitable now that trash mobs are dropping 6-8 gil per kill. Couple this with the fact that there is absolutely no NEED to ever buy anything because all of the best items in the game can either be created by a player from raw materials, or obtained through dungeon raiding... and you have a problem.




The issue isn't that people can't make gil. The issue is that there is no reason to spend gil.

Everyone can make gil. Making gil is easy... run your dailies and go treasure hunting. Sell whatever drops you get from mobs while doing these to NPC vendors. Do your daily dungeon roulette and get gil off trash mobs and get your quest reward at the end. Do your daily leve roulette and get gil there. Do your daily leve allotment and get gil there.

There are TONS of ways to make gil. Sure, it's not hundreds of thousands or millions of gil at a time... but you're going to end in the black (profit) every day.

What to do when you have that gil? That is the problem.

[Xystic]

Gil in circulation is up, gil being spent in the market (on everything but housing) is down.

How do I know this? Beacuse I play the game.

Because you play the game does not mean your numbers alone represent the overall gil in circulation. That is not a logical fact to use as your argument. Cause if what you say is true, the players who are also struggling in the market have a valid argument as well. Because they aren't logging out with more gil everyday and nor are their friends, they can conclude gil in circulation must be down.

Meaning, how can two people be true?

We also have to consider the fact that gil in circulation will be different from server to server as well. It may actually be down on some servers and up on others.

I don't need access to SE's source coding to see this. It's very clear.

It isn't. This is why you can scroll around and find several threads saying the economy is crashing. If it was indeed as clear as daylight, we wouldn't have two different populations in the community.

I play the game and every day I log out with more money than I started with. I know most people in my FC are in the same boat because I talk to them.

You and your population of players does not represent the overall gil spent in the market. Also it may not represent every other server.

The fact is, in 2.1, daily quests/treasure maps quests give out more gil than it costs to repair equipment/transport. Even running low level dungeons is profitable now that trash mobs are dropping 6-8 gil per kill. Couple this with the fact that there is absolutely no NEED to ever buy anything because all of the best items in the game can either be created by a player from raw materials, or obtained through dungeon raiding... and you have a problem.

You complaining cause you have excess gil because you aren't currently interested in anything on the market. It does not allow you to conclude that their is a problem. You contradict yourself here. First, increase in gil in circulation represents that people are interested in buying things on the market. If what you claim is true that gil in circulation is going up from earlier, that means people are interested in things currently on the market. Meaning your second argument that there is no need to ever buying anything can't be argued.

1. You argue gil in circulation is going up

2. No one needs to buy anything, meaning gil in circulation should be going down.

See the massive contradiction?

The issue isn't that people can't make gil. The issue is that there is no reason to spend gil.

Here is your next contradiction.

1. You claim gil in circulation is going up

2. No one has a need to buy anything - meaning gil in circulation is going down because if you don't buy things, there aren't gil in circulation

3. Whats the point of gil, nothing to buy - meaning gil in circulation is going down.

The thing is, 1. cannot be happening if you are claiming 2 and 3 as well. Meaning your post is a huge contradiction in itself. Meaning this reply has little to no weight when your arguments go against each other.

Gil in circulation is up, gil being spent in the market (on everything but housing) is down.

This is one confusing starting statement.

Gil in circulation is up but gil being spent in the market is down? Or do you mean, housing is only down?

[OSUBuckeye4]

Wow, I need to drink my morning coffee BEFORE posting.

Sorry, by "gil in circulation", I meant the overall pool of gil.

The overall pool of gil is increasing every day due to the reasons I typed above (dailies, roulettes, leves, trash mobs dropping 7-8 gil per kill in dungeons, treasure maps).



As far as gil in circulation... I can only assume it's going down, because as the overall pool of gil is increasing the prices on just about everything are dropping. (Source? Playing the game. If you want to argue it's just my server... well, I can't argue with you on that. Looking through the forums though, people from almost every server are reporting the same thing)

Some of this can be explained by saying that early lvl 50 crafters were operating with EXTREME profit margins. I will buy into that. Another part of this can be explained by saying that FC's are having fire sales to raise capital for housing. I can buy into that a bit as well.


We're past the initial rush of FC housing though and it's pretty apparent that the tide has turned when it comes to the marketplace. Yesterday I bought a lvl 43 HQ sword for 398 gil... there were 6-7 other swords on the market for under 1000. That is insanely cheap.

You're going to come back and say, "see, but you bought the sword... so the market works!". The only reason I bought the sword was because it was 398 gil. If it was 3,000 gil... I would have passed and just re-ran a dungeon and hoped for a free drop of an item that is better than the sword anyways. Plus, I would have walked away from the dungeon with some extra gil in my pocket, due to the trash mob gil drops and the reward for completing the dungeon. (even after repairs)

I'd actually agree with you on 398 being the market price if it wasn't for the fact that SE offered the same item (well, the non-HQ version) to me in a quest, but then gave me the alternative of taking 6 Allagan silver pieces (3000 gil).


It's not just one item that is cheap either. Every time I'm offered Allagan pieces or quest armor, I check the market board to see how much that quest armor is going for. It is universally selling for between 10-35% of the Allagan reward.

That is either horrible game design by SE (it's like a boss offering employees $1000, or the option to take a $150 coffee maker, everyone is going to take the cash... if you want the coffee maker you can go buy it and have $850 left to spend on other things)... or, the market is broken.


I'll try to sum it up:

It would make sense if people were making more money and things cost more.

It would also make sense if gil faucets were closed (say, trash mobs no longer dropped gil in dungeons... or, leve rewards were exp/seals only), and things started to cost less.


It doesn't make a lot of sense that "normal people" (people running quests/dailies) are making more money than ever, and almost everything is cheaper than it was prior to a lot of these gil faucets opening.



All of that being said, unlike a lot of people, I don't think we're at a code red point. Right now, there is still money to be made in the market for newer players. And also, newer players have it good to a certian degree... we can get HQ lvl 43 swords for 398 gil.

I just see the writing on the wall, and I hope that SE sees it as well and finds ways to deal with it in subsequent patches. (hint hint: personal housing)

If left unchecked, it's going to turn into a huge problem. Regular players making 25k gil per day profit, and spending none of it (nothing to reasonably spend it on), is not a good path to go down. It's going to discourage new players from entering the world and it's going to send the crafters looking for a new game to play.

OSU, did your FC get a house? if not yet then.. there is where you spend your saved up gil

We will buy housing (we have the gil for it) when housing provides a benefit other than vanity. Right now, that isn't the case.

EDIT: We will also look into purchasing housing when the depreciation stops, even if there is no addtional benefit added by SE.

Right now, there is no point in buying a house because:

A) It does nothing but occupy space
B) The devs have publically stated that they are committed to offering the same product at a reduced price every 6 hours. What is the point of buying right now again? To say that we own the best plot? Why? It's like saying you own the best paperweight in the world. Big deal. We go after useful things... like attaining rank 8 for our FC so that we can spend seals on buffs to lower transportation cost. We've done that.


So yea, for now... horde that gil. SE better realize that is what is going on though, and they better do something about it. If they don't, there won't be an economy when 3.0 rolls around and they will have to resort to nerfing everyones bankroll again.

[Xystic]

Snip

I'm not going to counter argue all your points.

This thread indicates that the only way you can prove the market is going one way or the other is specifically the gil in circulation numbers. This gives us a much better overall view of the market. Personal numbers and even a few handfuls are small compared to the gil in circulation numbers.

A lot your arguments are based off your own independent thoughts of what you see is happening. You've even included the fact which, you used the forums as a source of your information. The forums is a great source of information like wikipedia but should not be used as a legitimate source just like wikipedia.

Once again, a lot of your arguments contradict each other just like the previous post and some of them are also logically flawed.

Unless you can provide these numbers, we can't soundly argue good or bad.

[OSUBuckeye4]

I'm not going to counter argue all your points.

This thread indicates that the only way you can prove the market is going one way or the other is specifically the gil in circulation numbers. This gives us a much better overall view of the market. Personal numbers and even a few handfuls are small compared to the gil in circulation numbers.

A lot your arguments are based off your own independent thoughts of what you see is happening. You've even included the fact which, you used the forums as a source of your information. The forums is a great source of information like wikipedia but should not be used as a legitimate source just like wikipedia.

Once again, a lot of your arguments contradict each other just like the previous post and some of them are also logically flawed.

Unless you can provide these numbers, we can't soundly argue good or bad.

So essentialy your answer is... "Until you can hack into SE's systems and obtain data that they have refused to release.... I'm not going to respond to anything you said. Know that I disagree with a lot of it though, I just won't get into it".

Allright then, have a good day.

I'll leave you with one thing to think about before I leave.

This section of the forum has blown up with people pointing out warning signs/red flags. SE has come in a few times and responded, they've even gone so far as to set up a subforum about the most complained about thing (housing).

They read these posts, they see what is going on. Yet... they choose not to release any of the data that you say we need to see in order to judge the economy. The closest we ever got to seeing the "big picture" was when Yoshi tried to explain the rationale behind housing prices ("x" number of players had ABSURD amounts of gil, and some of it needed to be purged from the economy)... he refused to provide concrete numbers though.

Hmmm... why do you think that is the case?

[dspguy]

The fact is, in 2.1, daily quests/treasure maps quests give out more gil than it costs to repair equipment/transport. Even running low level dungeons is profitable now that trash mobs are dropping 6-8 gil per kill. Couple this with the fact that there is absolutely no NEED to ever buy anything because all of the best items in the game can either be created by a player from raw materials, or obtained through dungeon raiding... and you have a problem.

Gil being "printed" does not make the economy stronger. Maybe indirectly it frees up some gil-strapped players who are penny pinching on teleports and whatnot to splurge a bit: buy an HQ item. Buy some materia, some food.

Those 3 examples show money moving between players. That is healthy. Just printing gil is not.

Honestly, I think the problem is that there isn't much to spend gil on these days. I may not be the average player, but the vast majority of my expenses on any given day goes towards gil sinks: repair bills, teleport fees, FC housing savings. Occasionally I buy a few things off the marketboard so I craft my own gear. When I hit 50 on a job, I may buy a lot of philo mats and materia, but I don't level often, so that doesn't happen often.

In my opinion, right now, everyone's gil coffers are only growing with little to nothing to spend it all on.

[Wulfies]

Hi Xystic - I am going to have to disagree with some of your post. You are using "Gil in Cirulation" as just the amount that is spent on the MBs. You are not taking into account the money earned through quests and the likes (which I will grant you are small a this time) and money spent on porting/repairs/MB Fees. I believe you are trying to bleed-in "buying power" of the gil along with the "raw transactional gil" changing hands.

To use your example, lets say that 100mm is changing hands each day, we do not know if that is 2 transaction for 50mm or if its 1,000 transactions at 100k. Market implications are significantly different depending on transactional volume. You are right, we as players, do not readily have this information available in an instant, but it is avail through transactional history, its just a pain to gather that type of data in a meaningful fashion. I am sure once they unlock the XML coding we will have people that will try to pull real-time data from the different boards to websites and the likes.

As I have stated above SE has implemented what I call "gil sinks" to effectively pull gil out of the market permanently. I have posted this in several posts, so here they are:


1) if you came over from 1.0 you lost 90% of the gil stored (my tens of millions of gil went to just millions of gil)
2) selling drops from a lvl 50 mob/gathering spot will only get you 10-12 gil at the max. Same with the high end crafting gear (i have yet to see anything crafter made that sells for over 800 gil)
3) Repair costs (till they "fixed/reduced" the rates) were just a way to suck money out of the economy.
4) Teleports! good god the amount of gil it takes to go from Uldah to Gridana or Uldah to Limsa let alone anywhere to Mor Dhona or Coerthas. (but now they have implemented "Reduced Rates" FC "buffs" to try and dull the pain)
5) Housing - Pricing for this is outlandishly expensive to have at least for the moment and that in 3 months 80% of the FCs will have a "small" house. At least we can be thankful that this isn't as bad as I thought it would be (buying the plot, building tha house, and then paying a monthly "rental fees" to keep the house cause that would be just crazy talk)
6) The 5% sales tax put at the end of the transaction to the seller for the "privilege" to sell their wares on the market.
7) the 5% on what I* call "shipping & handling" tax to the buyer because they are buying an item that is being sold in a different city.


Now given the fact that SE is making such a concerted effort to bleed money out of the market we can only assume that we will have market deflation and your "buying-power" of gil will increase. If there is market deflation you will see the "Gil in Circulation" drop but that does not necessarily mean that "the market is struggling"

[Yoohre_WildRiver]

OSU, did your FC get a house? if not yet then.. there is where you spend your saved up gil

[Evane]

I wish they'd overhaul the market interface. Hiding the prices of the items on sale but leaving the history as it is now. Maybe add an average price field or something.