Honestly, I think a lot of it has to do with, what role you cue as, what level that role is, and how you cue.
Example:
I ALWAYS cue as Lvl 50 WHM/join party in progress when I do the Low Dungeon Roulette. (I do this because 'hey, I'm here to help anyway, might as well join people who got left/stuck/dc'd)
Anyway...since technically, the only native healer role pre level 30 is CNJ, (ACN doesn't unlock SCH until 30) that means healers are sorely needed in the pre level 30 dungeons.
So if you cue as a Healer (SCH/WHM/CNJ) at any level, you are most likely going to see the storyline specific level 15-29ish instances.
Due to this...I have had Satasha all but 3 times. The other 3 times, I have gotten Tam-tara, Ifrit, and Helatai.
Now tanks, while they will still see their fair share of newbie dungeons, they will also find times where they will cue regularly into the level 30-50 instances...this is because by level 30, tanks replace healer as the 'in short supply' role.
DPS...you have the longest wait, but you also have the best chance of seeing some variety. Although that said, I'm willing to bet that if you cue 'join party in progress' you are far less likely to see battles like Story Ifrit, and more likely to see Brayfox, Stronghold etc. Ranged roles might also be cuing more often in low level dungeons now that PGL/LNC are more popular to play (being leveled by more ppl) and people leveling BRD/BLM/ACN are slightly less represented low level, and over-represented mid-high level (as these were some of last patch's 'flavor of the month'). I say this because YP already explained that the DF system tries to pair 1 ranged and 1 melee in every party....so if PGL/MNK are being leveled more often in low level instances, you as a BRD cuing up, are more likely to see a low level instance as well...but PGL's have better luck seeing the 30+ dungeons. (My husband a Monk gets Ifrit/Quarn/Copperbell and such a lot...and rarely if ever gets the 'starter 3')


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