Damage Formula Thread

[Kenji1134]

You mean this guy?

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...ab#post1523825

Namely post #48, its a slightly more realistic model for viable Firestarter usage.
So back then I had an higher average of 109ish PPS. If I have time, I may rewrite that code with the new UI3 changes, or just use Excel.

The way I see it, there are a finite number of Fire Cycle Rotations, depending on Firestarter procs and if we assume that we are always casting something... OR we wait 0.5s for a possible proc on the last Fire, or manage to break B3 to use the proc when it appears.

So something like... (1 = F1, 3 = F3, 1! = F1 that got a proc)
1. 1! 1 3 1! 1 3 1! 3 - Wait
2. 1! 1 3 1! 1 3 1 - Keep Casting
3. 1! 1 3 1 1! 1 3 - Keep Casting
4. 1 1! 1 3 1! 1 3 - Casting
5. 1 1 1! 1 3 1! 3 - Wait
6. 1 1 1! 1 3 1 - Casting
7. 1 1 1 1! 1 3 - Casting
8. 1 1 1 1 1! 3 - Wait
9. 1 1 1 1 1! - Casting
10. 1 1 1 1 1 - Casting and awful luck

I think thats about all of the possible general scenarios. Then we have the issue of percents.
Keep in mind its been years since I did statistical probability, and I was never terribly fond of it.

K, did some of my excel probability modeling, basically making a 5x10k array of random data 1-100, then another array to convert it into procs if the value is >=60 to make a 40% chance.

So Case 1 has a ~6.4% chance, based on .4^3, and the model.
Case 2, which shares a probability with case 1, has a 9.6% chance.
Cases 3 to 5 all have a 16% chance.
Cases 6 to 8 all have a 40% chance.
And Cases 9-10 effectively have have a 7.8% chance (0.6^5 failures).

Now the fun part, combining like case probabilities to make everything add up to 100... This was the part of statistics I kinda sucked at... Q.Q

So that should cover the fire cycle. The ice/regen cycle has maybe 4 variants.
1. B3-T3-F3 with waits inbetween
2. B3-T2-F3 with waits
3. B3-Sc-T2-F3 with less waits
4. B3-B1-T2-F3 with less waits

It is up to the player to select which version of the regen cycle they want to use. Each one has a slightly different potency and total time.
Once we have selected a regen cycle we like, then we just add the total potency of EACH case of the fire cycle plus the regen cycle, add the times, see how much of our chosen Thunder dot went off, and we have total pot over total time = PPS.
PPS * Damage/Potency = DPS. Done.