Duty Roulette - low level - same dungeons???

[Mhaeric]

I should point out that the probabilities in his post are just estimates of the actual probabilities of getting a given dungeon, and only if all 4 members accessed it through Duty Roulette. The most obvious reason they're not accurate is that they're based on the assumption that DF queues have an even spread of levels from 15-50. The actual spread is more likely high at level 15 with a gradual dropping off to low numbers at 49 with small spikes at levels with a multiple of 10 and a sudden huge spike at 50, similar to this graph of server population from the official census done in September. I assume that non-legacy worlds currently have populations more similar to the legacy worlds in that chart, since there has been several months to catch up now.


I'm not industrious enough to do the same probability calculations he did with this data myself, so perhaps he could re-calculate with an assumed population distribution that's a better estimate based on populations that actually exists in game?

All that said, it's still a very good illustration of why random dungeon lots are distributed the way they are and high level dungeons are seemingly impossible to get. And in reality the numbers are even more skewed towards lower level dungeons because of other considerations.

The one major thing it doesn't take into account is the fact that people entering through Roulette are also paired up with people entering through Finder, and given the actual population distribution coupled with the different motivations to queue for people of different levels (low levels queue because they need a specific dungeon, higher levels queue because they want the bonus xp) the percentage of people queuing for specific lower level dungeons will be much higher than people queuing for specific higher level dungeons. Also, lower level players will be more likely to queue for specific dungeons, while higher level characters will be more likely to queue for random dungeons. This will even further skew the numbers toward lower level dungeons beyond what is illustrated in this thread.