Penalty for repetition?

[VenusDoom]

Has anyone else had this issue?; You start your daily crafting grind, and your first 1~3 synths go just fine, ending with plenty of durability, few or no failed actions/unstables, and lots of progress increase for successful actions. Then when you get to synth three or four of the exact same item without changing anything, it all goes down hill. You experience critical fails action after action regardless of white orbs or abilities, your synths go unstable 2-3 times per craft, your progress goes to crap... until finally you fail the same synth horribly. The it seems to reset and give you an easy one or two, like when you first started.

I'm inclined to believe there is some sort of hidden penalty for doing the same synth over and over, or maybe use of the Recipes button screws you over somehow. This trend in synths happens to me daily, regardless of the craft, recipe, any swaps to gear i make, etc. Anyone else feel the same?

[Peregrine]

It's probably memory bias, but it does sometimes feel like there's a freshness factor that goes into determining your success rates. Like any voodoo claim, would take statistics to prove though.

[twinkles]

Most likely some sort of recall bias, although i swear often actually the other way around (usually when i'm close to dinging this happens). I record a lot of data sets when i'm crafting and can assure you Venus it's just selective memory. It's much easier to recall the three botches in a row, then the three that finished perfectly.

[Catapult]

I also normally find by 3rd to 10th synths go well, almost as if the first few are simply warm-ups. But that'll also be my own memory bias.

RNG for the kill!

[Mikita]

I do notice this as well. It seems like some synths are just jinxed from the outset. Sometimes it seems to come in pairs as well -- miserably failing two in a row, then going back to normal.

Recall bias probably plays a factor.

And I still suspect that the hour and its related element play a factor. We have no way of seeing what element is prominent, but if I seem to get into a fail rut, I will try to drag out the synth as long as possible and wait for the hour to change.

No proof, of course, but this does seem to help for me.

[Catapult]

As I understand it, there is a cycle that can be worked out. Ice>Water>Wind>Lightning>Fire>Earth on a six hour rotation starting at midnight would make sense.

Careful: When it comes to the cycle of elements, ZAM contradicts the in-game lore. You can't trust them or their desktop gadget.