Square Enix's RNG

[Nukocafe]

I've done Garuda Hard mode about 25 times and I've yet to see a bard bow or a scholar book drop.
I've since gotten my Scholar's relic so now I do it to get weapons for my sub characters but still kinda sad lol..

[Moirear]

This reminds me that there are still too many people that don't understand percentages or probability.

Less than 100% chance is not 100% chance, no matter how close it is to 100%.

50% does not mean that a specific person will succeed 50% of the time, it means that there's always a flat 50% chance of success or failure. You could fail 90% of the time even though you had a 50% chance of success every time, because it's not cumulative, but flat probability for each check.

Most RNG systems are not perfectly random in the strictest sense, but can seem close enough. This game uses one of them.

[Youmu]

Keep this thread going. When I wake up i want to read about people bitching about RNG. I love RNG. My favorite way to get loot. I wonder if i'll get my Allagan weapon before 2.2? Just love being rewarded for clearing hard content. Wait. I haven't.

Just be glad something drops. And it wasn't dark matter.

If anything, he can be glad that his item exists. The item I need, ancient shield, doesn't.

[Castillan]

This reminds me that there are still too many people that don't understand percentages or probability.

I understand probability quite well. Did statistics in University. When I frequently see sequences that have less than a 1 in 100,000 chance occurring, every 500 chances or so, and others complain of the same thing, we're either all incredibly unlucky, or the system is prone to excessively long sequences of extreme values.

Frankly though, I'd be happier if they just did away with the RNG entirely, and introduced some form of Fatigue factor, that increases with every action, and once full, the next action is going to fail. Various abilities increase fatigue more, while various traits decrease the rate of fatigue growth.


Do the same thing as well, but for HQ gatherings. When you gather, your HQ meter fills, and then once full, you get an HQ hit, and it resets with any full surplus carried over.

Such a system would remove the immense frustration that many feel with an RNG. I hate RNG's in MMO's period (excluding combat). If I'm a skilled artisan or botanist, it's only a matter of time, not chance, that I'll HQ something.

[Mayin]

It isn't fancy math.. it is about statistics.

Random is random(or pseudo-random in this case obviously). But once you apply a statistical value too it, like SE has done, then it can be expected to conform to that number within certain tolerance levels over larger sample sets, otherwise that number is meaningless.

I am not complaining here: I think things function okay-ish. Just that the numbers SE has given aren't accurate to what is going on from what I have seen thus far, but they do mostly conform to some pattern. Just not the one stated by the number SE gave. Subtract 10% (for any value between 10% and 99%) seems a good rule of thumb for me. (Though it likely isn't accurate to what is actually going on to cause that perception)

It doesn't matter what you say really, my comment still rings true. Sugar coat it with as many math textbooks as you like good sir. If it's not 100% you ALWAYS have a chance to fail.

[Duuude007]

And the fact I did 300 in a row to receive my tests should be at least somewhat representative of that.

What did you do 300 times? All I saw was you mentioning AK, which any RNG factors therein are far more obscure than 98% HQ success rate, so I am not sure what one has to do with the other.

[Ksenia]

Having gathered up to 800 Mythril Ore, equal numbers on other items, I can confirm that HQ is around 15-20% and it's like that all the time. Proc for Mooch is similar. For Gathering, it's 15-20% of hits though so if you are getting nothing 40% of the time, you get 15% of the 60 times you hit.

Crafting is different. If I can get 50% or 75% or 88% with all Normal condition and do it over 100 Synthesis, my true HQ will come up half on those synthesis. The number fusges based on Good quality but the true value of my crafting percentage is almost always half. It doesn't matter what the bar says.

[GilbertLapine]

Anyone else feel like SE's RNG is a complete joke?

I have been crafting all night getting about 80-90% chance of HQ and swear I have failed about 50% of the time.

Meanwhile I barely get any HQ with 15-20% chance HQ.

Same goes for gathering. Several misses in a row on 80% chance.

They really need to update their RNG formula.

/rant

Haven't had an issue with the crafting, but the RNG sure gets screwy when they unleash it on the loot tables. Had me convinced for a while it was picking drops by day instead of by run.

[DenzelTaru]

Sometimes, luck just isn't on (y)our side.

once you have levelled multiple crafters to 50, and gotten all your cross class.. should luck still be a factor? to a degree i guess but it is really annoying to consistantly hit 100% HQ then on one craft fail fail fail fail and hit 10% lol

[Velox]

And the ugly truth to %-based rates is that, mathematically speaking, there exists a statistical probability that someone will never get an item they desire. Game companies won't sell you that info though. :P

Obviously the odds are very low assuming an infinite number of attempts, but it's not 0.