Square Enix's RNG

[Tiggy]

I am not complaining here: I think things function okay-ish. Just that the numbers SE has given aren't accurate to what is going on from what I have seen thus far, but they do mostly conform to some pattern. Just not the one stated by the number SE gave. Subtract 10% (for any value between 10% and 99%) seems a good rule of thumb for me. (Though it likely isn't accurate to what is actually going on to cause that perception)

As you say this is entirely your perception, and that perception is always biased. Specifically, human perception draws greater attention to things that fail or disappoint. As you say a 25% change means 1/4, but in statistics there is no expectation that every 4 attempts will provide exactly 1 success. Every given event is random and irrelevant to each other attempt. They are independent observations. As such runs of success or failures are entirely possible especially when you consider how many players are in game at once all causing the RNG to activate. In a great enough sample size it is entirely likely that the RNG does in fact fit within the tolerances expected of it. Everyone needs to chill out and realize their opinions are entirely biased and have absolutely no statistical accuracy on whether or not the RNG is broken or not. Someone, anyone, should start a spreadsheet and begin recording their observations. Once we have a few thousand instances at a specific percentage( Ie. at 99% for 1000 synths I had 900 successes and 100 failures for an actual fail rate of 10%) then we can say for sure if this is broken or not. Until that time this is all, 100%, subjective.