Square Enix's RNG

[Livi]

So you meant random is a joke? lol

[IronSoup]

The RNG for crafting is the same than the RNG to loot. If you wanna test it, it's pretty simple.

Example:
A Titan weapon chest.
5 people looting on the item.
The looting numbers were: 6-45-72-94-98.
The 98 got the item.

If you want to apply the RNG loot numbers to crafting, you can. Picture the looting numbers as "minimum %quality required for HQ". It is that simple. With the above example, even if you'd get 92% chance of HQ on your 5 crafts, 2 out of the 5 would have given a NQ because you were unlucky with the RNG system.

This is how the system works.

BUT there is a way to "exploit" (counter) the RNG system for crafting... just achieve 100% HQ.

[Rivienne]

BUT there is a way to "exploit" the RNG system for crafting... just achieve 100% HQ.

Looking at this type of "exploit": for gathering this also exists on 5 chance nodes once you reach level 25? or 30. I can't remember: gather 4 100% items (shards if the item you want isn't), then solid reason, and deep vigor. 5th item is 100% chance of HQ. This still means the best you can get is 1 HQ mat for every 4 NQ, or 1 HQ mat for 4 shards though. And only every 5 nodes, and only if you recover enough GP first.

[DoctorPepper]

I would have to disagree with the OP. Personally I have all crafts at 50 and have had just as many things with say 10-20% chance hq as things with 90-100% chance nq. I think you have just been getting bad luck, the thing about RNG is that it's exactly that, random. Unless you have a sample of several thousand results and see a clear distinctive pattern I really don't think you can justify that it's not working. Just because you get bad luck multiple times in one session doesn't make it anything more than bad luck.

[Tiggy]

So many people complaining, but I have yet to see someone make a spreadsheet and mark down at each given percentage the number of successes and failures they've seen at that percentage. Also, we would need this in a large sample size to be statistically valuable. Until I see some numbers to support the idea that the RNG is bad I will continue to believe it is just RNG being RNG.

[gintoki88]

Anyone else feel like SE's RNG is a complete joke?

I have been crafting all night getting about 80-90% chance of HQ and swear I have failed about 50% of the time.

Meanwhile I barely get any HQ with 15-20% chance HQ.

Same goes for gathering. Several misses in a row on 80% chance.

They really need to update their RNG formula.

/rant

I ranted about this a few months a go

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...s-somewhat-off

[coffeeking]

RNG is fine, in life you also don't get what you want. get used to it

[Rivienne]

As you say this is entirely your perception, and that perception is always biased. Specifically, human perception draws greater attention to things that fail or disappoint

Actually, I only inserted myself into this thread to insert some hard numbers of a reasonable quantity to be potentially meaningful. I performed a specific test to determine usefulness of unearth given the need for cordial/waiting for GP (not to find a flaw in the system): those results are large enough that they appear to show a skew in the system. You have deemed those numbers not enough (or not noticed them), that is fair, I already said they aren't enough to make a definitive conclusion: but that they are suspect.

I do in fact have hard experience with this type of system, so I am not exactly speaking in ignorance, but more... I am not sure why there is this huge push back against the possibility of this system being flawed. It is very hard to get a reasonable approximation of probability distribution right, and mistakes can easily happen.

Naturally people who are frustrated will complain: but that doesn't mean they don't have a potentially valid complaint. "Numbers or it didn't happen!" "More numbers or it didn't happen!" "ALL the numbers or it didn't happen."

Probability and statistics is about not needing all the numbers, just a sufficiently large sample size. I performed a test of a reasonable size to suggest there may in fact be a problem. I agree more numbers should be done independently to attempt to validate them. That doesn't mean my numbers, or my for the purpose of game play conclusions based on them, are not worth mention until then.

[Black91CRX]

I melded some materia for a friend the other day and failed a 35% chance about 8 times before giving up. The next person I melded for needed a 7% chance and I nailed it first try. It can be frustrating I know. But a 50% chance means you can fail EVERY time. Doesn't mean that 5/10 tries will succeed.

[Sin_Nombre]

I would actually like to know what random number generator they're using, and whether or not it has passed all the tests out there for random number generation. There are plenty of bad generators out there, and if they wrote the one they're using themselves, then there's a high probability it IS broken.

I've seen events happen more than a few times that simply should not have occurred, like failing over and over again with 98 and 99% chances for success. And by not occurring, I mean that the probability of these events is on the order of 1:1,000,000,000, and they occur all the time.

They've already had to fix issues with loot drops in coil, so it really makes you wonder what else is broken in this domain.