Low level market seems to be dead

[juniglee]

What are those items and how much do they cost to make? Also who are your customers for those items and what are they making?

The point made was that it is a pyramid scheme because most of the money is coming from other crafters also looking to turn it into cash. The economy is deflationary so this encourages people to hoard money rather than spend it, and then the scheme falls apart at various speeds. The only exception to this is cooking, but at least on my server the market is totally saturated and demand fell through the floor since many people either don't eat as much or make their own food now.

It also depends on the server, on Tonberry it is pretty bad.

I can second this.

I have a Lv50 GSM, so I made my own money by HQ-ing iLv49 accessories, and selling off the materia I get. I usually spiritbond Spinel or Zircon equipment for the Savage Aim/Might 3 materias. About 2 weeks ago, Savage Aims were going for about 19k each. Now they're going for around 12k I believe. This happens to be the only best use of GSM - attempting to sell HQ accessories that you don't plan to spiritbond nets you less. I was selling HQ Rubellite Rings for 1.4k each, and Electrum Earrings HQ (gathering) were finally sold at about 1.5k each.

Philosophy tome mat prices are pretty bad too. I've heard it's still about 25k+/piece or so on other servers, but on Tonberry they have now dropped to 10k/piece. I estimate it will drop to 9k today, and it will just keep dropping. Subsequently, prices of 2-star HQ might drop too.

As we have already established through countless threads, the only market available to crafters are crafters and gatherers. DoW/DoM are not affected because there is no reason for them to wear crafted gear when they can either FATE and replace their equipment with GC equipment via seals gained from FATE grinding, or from running dungeons, where they often get free aetherial or green gear. Crafters want as high craftsmanship/control as possible, and gatherers want as high gathering and perception as possible - and crafting happens to be the only source of said gear. There is also a market for cross-class material requirements - for example, fellow crafters levelling BSM will find stuff from ALC and CRP useful. CUL has a market in end game, unfortunately early game food doesn't sell at all, since people are content with getting them from the Independent Culinarian available in each city-state.

At the moment, I am just saving up my gil and not planning to spend them, in the eventual hope that there will hopefully be something for me to spend on (I mean, invest on so I can make money too). For levelling my WVR, I plan to level my BTN, so I can gather my own Flax. The only expenditure I will make for crafting is for shards.

[Reishi]

Philosophy tome mat prices are pretty bad too. I've heard it's still about 25k+/piece or so on other servers, but on Tonberry they have now dropped to 10k/piece. I estimate it will drop to 9k today, and it will just keep dropping. Subsequently, prices of 2-star HQ might drop too.

Exactly this.
On Gilgamesh tome mat prices dropped to 4k-5k (beginning of January) and it's just worth doing if you're really otherwise always on 2k/2k tomes like me. HQ 2 star items aren't anymore the way they used to be, too. Prices for weapons dropped about 200k within a month! I can't speak for accessories but body equipment dropped by 50k-100k in the same time too.

[Beetle]

Exactly this.
On Gilgamesh tome mat prices dropped to 4k-5k (beginning of January) and it's just worth doing if you're really otherwise always on 2k/2k tomes like me. HQ 2 star items aren't anymore the way they used to be, too. Prices for weapons dropped about 200k within a month! I can't speak for accessories but body equipment dropped by 50k-100k in the same time too.

Its because new treasure chests can drop 9 of them at a time sometimes. Thats getting openning a chest and getting 1300 phil. That & there no need for market for them anymore and earning points has been given out much more since the patch.

[Reishi]

Its because new treasure chests can drop 9 of them at a time sometimes. Thats getting openning a chest and getting 1300 phil. That & there no need for market for them anymore and earning points has been given out much more since the patch.

you talk about the chests from treasure maps? still have to try that out, but unfotunately it makes sense...

[Astarica]

The gear structure in this game isn't particularly good or bad compared to any other game, but since you can level in FATEs while wearing nothing, there's not exactly a demand for low level gear in the first place. Even on a game like WoW, your ability to kill stuff slightly faster helps a good deal while leveling up, so there's at least a reason to invest in a current weapon and possibly armor with offensive stats. None of that is true in a FATE.

[JagerForrester]

I make more money per hour on tradecraft leves than my items on the market boards… unless it's the weekend.

[SarcasmMisser]

I am also a level 50 GSM, a week ago I noticed that Tourmaline Chokers were up to 3600g each, with only a single HQ item on the market board and a sale history that showed strong demand from a handful of crafters leveling. I made some and went to list them to find that someone also listed some at 2800, undercutting the one item being listed by 800g for no reason at all.

Well actually there is a reason for this, if you consider that when prices are deflationary there is no confidence. So everyone is basically doing a run on the banks and not investing this money back into the economy at all, as the running assumption is that things will be cheaper. Prices of La Noscean Toast and Buttons in a Blanket on Tonberry have actually fallen below the cost to make them.

[Astarica]

So everyone is basically doing a run on the banks and not investing this money back into the economy at all, as the running assumption is that things will be cheaper. Prices of La Noscean Toast and Buttons in a Blanket on Tonberry have actually fallen below the cost to make them.

Well for a long time the cost of items are backed by the cost of the shards. A level 50 food requires 12 shards, which held at the 50 gil range on my server for a while, so you can reasonably price it at 600+ gil. Recently it seems like even the shards market have collapsed (probably because people realize there's no need to level up a new crafter and only new crafter needs them in large numbers). It's not exactly a secret that any gathered item really has a constant value of 1 gil since it takes exactly as much effort to gather 1 shard compared to 1 thanalan tea leaves, or anything else.

[SarcasmMisser]

...

The cost of shards has been stable between 15-20g on Tonberry for a while. It's important to consider margins, even with high shard costs the profit margins were 100%+ on many things, probably why shards had such strong demand (The shard market depends on the crafting market, so it's an indicator of the health of crafting if anything). The margins on those things now are basically nothing, so when you consider the opportunity cost compared to gathering or farming mobs it's a loss. Volume of sales is also important, there are some things that have very high margins but never sell. You need high volume or as soon as you list stuff you will tank the market, and the number of things that have the volume that can support the amount of people trying to sell right now is shrinking, and mostly moving to gathering.

Gathering of course also depends on the crafting market, so by shifting to it you're really just trying to stay ahead and profit before other markets react. Shards react first because it's a very efficient market, other things take a while. As I said it's a pyramid scheme.

This isn't much different from most online games though, which is why the smart people who understand this get in as early as possible and profit the most. I know people who made thousands of real dollars in the first months of the Diablo 3 RMAH.

[juniglee]

I am also a level 50 GSM, a week ago I noticed that Tourmaline Chokers were up to 3600g each, with only a single HQ item on the market board and a sale history that showed strong demand from a handful of crafters leveling. I made some and went to list them to find that someone also listed some at 2800, undercutting the one item being listed by 800g for no reason at all.

Hah I saw Electrum Earrings HQ were at 5.1k a week ago. So I decided to craft one to try and sell. Kept getting under cut...I eventually sold it for 1.5k.

A lot of people undercut for the sake of making a quick buck. They don't care about the economy at all. "The economy be damned - I just want to pocket what little amounts of gil remain out there."