Game's RNG seems whack

[DSN]

There are tons of instances of 'broken math' in this game. The other day gathering I decided to log each attempt and do the math, at 72% success rate and 1000 attempts you would expect around 720 items gathered ... was 513 thats 51.3% way off from 72%, it gets worse when I do the math for my HQ rates.

[Bizniztyme]

There are tons of instances of 'broken math' in this game. The other day gathering I decided to log each attempt and do the math, at 72% success rate and 1000 attempts you would expect around 720 items gathered ... was 513 thats 51.3% way off from 72%, it gets worse when I do the math for my HQ rates.

You do know just because it 72% success rate doesn't mean that you will get 720/1000 right? It's a 72% chance each time you make a swing. But, I do agree, RNG can be rough in this game. lol

[Starfox71rt]

You do know just because it 72% success rate doesn't mean that you will get 720/1000 right? It's a 72% chance each time you make a swing. But, I do agree, RNG can be rough in this game. lol

While that's true, over a large enough sample size it should regress back to the 72% success rate. If you were to double DSN's sample size (original being 513/1000 or 51.3%), that would mean there would have to be 927 successes out of the next 1000 (92.7%) to get back to the proper success rate (1440/2000 or 72%). Even if you double that sample size to 4000, DSN would have had to get 2367 successes out of the next 3000 (79%) to get back to 72%.

Further, if you evaluate the 207 extra fails from the original use case in a vacuum, the odds of that many fails at a 72% success rate are astronomically high. So high in fact that you have a better chance of winning the PowerBall lottery (1 in 175,000,000) 13 times in a row. [Disclaimer: While I did do the math to get the odds, I'm not statistically versed enough to determine if I incorrectly evaluated the 207 fails]

The point is, it doesn't seem like the math is right. It could be either the algorithm to determine success or fail or the way the game calculates the stated success rate to you.

[Welsper59]

There are tons of instances of 'broken math' in this game. The other day gathering I decided to log each attempt and do the math, at 72% success rate and 1000 attempts you would expect around 720 items gathered ... was 513 thats 51.3% way off from 72%, it gets worse when I do the math for my HQ rates.

I honestly think HQ rates run on a different algorithm from general success percentage, at least when dealing with HQ gathering. I'm assuming it's normal to frequently HQ lower level gathering nodes, as the one time I did that, I had what seemed to be ~50% HQ rate, despite it saying 15%. So if level/gear really does matter that much, despite what game statistics are visibly shown to us, that means there are additional factors besides baseline RNG.

Failures seem to run on a different formula though, as regardless of how low a % of failure it might be, it will always happen at higher rates than a low % of success. Give it a try, see how often you'll encounter a 5-10% fail, compared to a 5-10% success. Not exactly something you can do with gathering though, I think, but rather something you can do with crafting (or comparing percentages between both). It's still probably an RNG thing mind you, but there just might be additional RNG factors in place.

[YuriRamona]

I honestly think HQ rates run on a different algorithm from general success percentage, at least when dealing with HQ gathering.

This is definitely the case. Someone out there wrote the algorithm so that the actual percentage chance is 15% lower than what is written, but it says that the success rate is normal.

#RNGConspiracy