What the heck is wrong?!

[Ksenia]

It does seem as though the RNG tends towards lower probabilities when the crafted item's level is over the crafter's level. It also seems to become better when the crafter's level is higher than the crafted item's level. Since HT's base probability is only 50%, it stands to reason that it will fail more with higher level synths. All in all, I find the probabilities to be on the money based on difficulty

I noticed this to be the case as well.
For cloth and Weaver you might want to go with Waste Not and Standard touch.

Even now at 50 I will make Linen using 1:1 HQ/ NQ mostly because the market for flax is gone and I find I am counting shards.

1HQ Flax
1NQ Flax

If you can clear the progress bar in one action,

Inner Quiet
Steady Hand II
Great Strides
Best touch you have

Great Strides
Touch
Steady Hand
Great Strides
Touch

If you need 2 Actions to clear the progress

Use on
Inner Quiet
Steady Hand
Waste Not
Touch x 4
Complete the synth

This method, either one will get you up in the 80% Quality and while you will get NQ it gets you solid exper.

I've used the Hasty methods and they work but I don't find they are any more productive in the long run.

Add On: Pound through to 38. It's when you switch out your wardrobe to full Linen gear.

[Roth_Trailfinder]

If you can clear the progress bar in one action,

Inner Quiet
Steady Hand II
Great Strides
Best touch you have

Great Strides
Touch
Steady Hand
Great Strides
Touch

If you need 2 Actions to clear the progress

Use on
Inner Quiet
Steady Hand
Waste Not
Touch x 4
Complete the synth

This method, either one will get you up in the 80% Quality and while you will get NQ it gets you solid exper.

I've used the Hasty methods and they work but I don't find they are any more productive in the long run.

Add On: Pound through to 38. It's when you switch out your wardrobe to full Linen gear.

My own rotation for 40 durability recipes, assuming one Synth to finish :
Inner Quiet
(Tricks if available)
Steady Hand (2)
Waste Not
4 Hasty Touch
(Tricks if available)
Hasty Touch
(Tricks if available)
Manipulation
(Tricks if available)
Steady Hand
Waste Not
4 Hasty Touch
Best Touch possible based on CP
Synth

My method takes a bit of CP (283 if I remember correctly) and while that amount of CP is available at 40 (I've got 287 without any melding on my classes still at 40), may not be quite so readily available without CP melding when below 39. If the recipe takes two Synths to finish, then simply replace that fifth Hasty Touch with one Synth. If it (for some reason) takes three, then replace the fifth and the last Touches with Synthesis actions, and rather than doing four Hasty Touches while covered by the second Steady Hand, do 3 and then put in your best Touch that CP allows.

That said, if you are going to use the Great Strides method, try this :
Inner Quiet
Great Strides
Steady Hand
best Touch
Great Strides
best Touch
Great Strides
best Touch
Synth
If you do not have at least 232 CP, then you will need to use Great Strides->Basic Touch for at least one of the three Touches in that method. Putting Great Strides before the Steady Hand lets you get all three Touches covered by the one Steady Hand.

My method does a rather good job at getting a lot of quality into a 40 durability recipe. You get 10 total Touches (less if the recipe takes more than one Synth to finish) though, seeing as two of them are totally uncovered by Steady Hand, fewer are expected to actually succeed.