What the heck is wrong?!

[Reiryuu]

I enjoy crafting-- most are in their 30s Alch at 50. I'm using steady hand II and I've decided to take weaving (37) to 50 next.

Linen cloth, I am failing SO freaking often. I'm in mostly HQ gear all my level and 5, 6, 7 times in a row I fail with SH2 and Hasty Touch. What the hell is going on here? I mean the chances of failing that many times in a row with 20% chance to fail should be incredibly small. I am so freaking frustrated by how often these fail trains happen and I don't understand what's causing them.

[Thorauku]

20% is still 20%.

[fixitman]

It does seem as though the RNG tends towards lower probabilities when the crafted item's level is over the crafter's level. It also seems to become better when the crafter's level is higher than the crafted item's level. Since HT's base probability is only 50%, it stands to reason that it will fail more with higher level synths. All in all, I find the probabilities to be on the money based on difficulty

[Reiryuu]

20% is still 20%.

I don't have any trouble failing once or even 2-3 times in a row. It's the 5-7 times that frustrate me and they happen quite frequently on a recipe that is 4 levels below me.

[Lysandrus]

I don't have any trouble failing once or even 2-3 times in a row. It's the 5-7 times that frustrate me and they happen quite frequently on a recipe that is 4 levels below me.

Large streaks like that are definitely frustrating, but they are statistically going to happen. Most people tend to remember bad experiences easier and with more clarity than good, so while you notice and remember those streaks of 5-7 failures, you overlook the streaks where SH2+HT works 10+ times in a row, even though it statistically should have failed twice.

After hitting 50 on three crafts, having the other five at 40+ and having all three gathering professions at 43+ (non-Legacy, so all in the current system), I'm well acquainted with the RNG and have personally not noticed anything "off" with it. If you suspect something, I recommend recording your results for a while, good and bad, and seeing how things look with a large sample.

[Ksenia]

It does seem as though the RNG tends towards lower probabilities when the crafted item's level is over the crafter's level. It also seems to become better when the crafter's level is higher than the crafted item's level. Since HT's base probability is only 50%, it stands to reason that it will fail more with higher level synths. All in all, I find the probabilities to be on the money based on difficulty

I noticed this to be the case as well.
For cloth and Weaver you might want to go with Waste Not and Standard touch.

Even now at 50 I will make Linen using 1:1 HQ/ NQ mostly because the market for flax is gone and I find I am counting shards.

1HQ Flax
1NQ Flax

If you can clear the progress bar in one action,

Inner Quiet
Steady Hand II
Great Strides
Best touch you have

Great Strides
Touch
Steady Hand
Great Strides
Touch

If you need 2 Actions to clear the progress

Use on
Inner Quiet
Steady Hand
Waste Not
Touch x 4
Complete the synth

This method, either one will get you up in the 80% Quality and while you will get NQ it gets you solid exper.

I've used the Hasty methods and they work but I don't find they are any more productive in the long run.

Add On: Pound through to 38. It's when you switch out your wardrobe to full Linen gear.

[Roth_Trailfinder]

If you can clear the progress bar in one action,

Inner Quiet
Steady Hand II
Great Strides
Best touch you have

Great Strides
Touch
Steady Hand
Great Strides
Touch

If you need 2 Actions to clear the progress

Use on
Inner Quiet
Steady Hand
Waste Not
Touch x 4
Complete the synth

This method, either one will get you up in the 80% Quality and while you will get NQ it gets you solid exper.

I've used the Hasty methods and they work but I don't find they are any more productive in the long run.

Add On: Pound through to 38. It's when you switch out your wardrobe to full Linen gear.

My own rotation for 40 durability recipes, assuming one Synth to finish :
Inner Quiet
(Tricks if available)
Steady Hand (2)
Waste Not
4 Hasty Touch
(Tricks if available)
Hasty Touch
(Tricks if available)
Manipulation
(Tricks if available)
Steady Hand
Waste Not
4 Hasty Touch
Best Touch possible based on CP
Synth

My method takes a bit of CP (283 if I remember correctly) and while that amount of CP is available at 40 (I've got 287 without any melding on my classes still at 40), may not be quite so readily available without CP melding when below 39. If the recipe takes two Synths to finish, then simply replace that fifth Hasty Touch with one Synth. If it (for some reason) takes three, then replace the fifth and the last Touches with Synthesis actions, and rather than doing four Hasty Touches while covered by the second Steady Hand, do 3 and then put in your best Touch that CP allows.

That said, if you are going to use the Great Strides method, try this :
Inner Quiet
Great Strides
Steady Hand
best Touch
Great Strides
best Touch
Great Strides
best Touch
Synth
If you do not have at least 232 CP, then you will need to use Great Strides->Basic Touch for at least one of the three Touches in that method. Putting Great Strides before the Steady Hand lets you get all three Touches covered by the one Steady Hand.

My method does a rather good job at getting a lot of quality into a 40 durability recipe. You get 10 total Touches (less if the recipe takes more than one Synth to finish) though, seeing as two of them are totally uncovered by Steady Hand, fewer are expected to actually succeed.

[Ksenia]

I have 280 CP at 38 (alch same suit though) but my materia is in craftsmanship because I was bored and wanted to make 40 Lanolin at 38 with a single standard Synthesis. 232 craftsmanship, add an HQ Rolanberry sauce and I was able to do it. Level 38 Alechemist doing level 40 Lanolin with great strides method and I am pushing 9000 exper on them in rotation. That's why I prefer the great strides method over Hasty.

[Marael]

Simple solution, don't rely so much on hasty touch. Figure out a better skill rotation with the skills that are available to you where you don't have to rely on it at all, or only for one or two uses to fill out your durability.

[YanDere]

I am only lv30 WVR and lv15 or less for other crafts, but what I can suggest is: if you fail too often, then sacrifice quality to get progress.
It's better a NQ craft than a failed HQ one.
Just use Basic/Standard Synthesis and Standard Touch, instead of Hasty Touch.