Gathering and probability....

[Doki]

Dear SE,

Please purchase a one-hundred-sided die. Roll it 4 times.
How many times did it roll a one?
Roll it 4 more times? How many ones did it roll this time?
Continue to do this several hundred more times.

I guarantee you will roll a ones FAR LESS than I fail at gathering at 99%.

Now purchase a ten-sided die. Roll it 4 times.
How many times did it roll a one?
Roll it 4 more times? How many ones did it roll this time?
Continue to do this several hundred more times.

Hmmm, this actually seems closer to what I get with gathering fails.

Perhaps someone should explain to you that 1/100 =/= 1/10

[TeganLaron]

Yeah I've noticed the probability is a bit off too. I was at 78% on an item earlier and failed about 15-16 times in a row...

[Nukocafe]

I've basically found that in Eorzea for gathering the percentage is more like:

80% = 40%
85% = 50%
90% = 60%
95% = 70%
99% = 80%

[Meimei]

I've basically found that in Eorzea for gathering the percentage is more like:

80% = 40%
85% = 50%
90% = 60%
95% = 70%
99% = 80%

Crafting's the same way. Can't tell you how many times I've failed actions (only a 10% chance of failure with steady hand up) many times in a row, effectively botching a good synth.

I also love getting 90-99% quality on an item only to have it NOT HQ, which has happened much more often than getting 10% quality and HQing in spite of the odds.

The Random Number Generator doesn't play fair.

[cearka]

yeah, there rng generator in this game is garbage. why even bother to lie to us about the percentages in game? we'd probably be happier with a text that just said low medium high percentage then numbers that mean absolute poop-all

[Lelouch001]

85% and miss 4 out of 5 times.

[Astarica]

The chance to fail 4 or 5 times in 5 gathers with 85% chance is 1 in 395. Since people probably gather considerably more than 395 times if you do a lot of gathering, it'd actually be pretty weird to not fail 4 times in 5 gathers at some point.

One of the really simple things about probabilities is that if something happnens 1 in 1000, but you're doing the activity 1000 (or more) times, it's very likely you'll see a 1 in 1000 event at some point. There's an experiment where a teacher had students roll a 6 sided dice 100 times and write down the results, and have other students just fake 100 rolls, and the teacher was able to identify all the fake rolls because they didn't have stuff like rolling the same number 3 times, even though there's a 94% chance you ought to roll the same number 3 times in a row in 100 rolls.

[Doki]

In my opinion, it does go both ways. I fail way more than expected with a 99% chance, and get a HQ result way more than expected as well. I suppose I should just go with it, but it bothers me every time I get multiple fails in a row at 97% to 99% chance, multiple nodes back to back.

Read up on the probability of stuff like rolling 2 six-sided dice and getting snake eyes more than 3 times in a row.

In other news, if SE opens a casino, do NOT gamble there!

[DeceptionsWrath]

I also agree the %'s are totally off. For me i found that certain numbers are better than others like, 76% chance yeilds better results for me than 85% chance for some reason. 85% chance for me means i'll miss atleast one pick per node. But 76% i rarely miss. And it's not even just those numbers. 72% is horrible for me as well, but 69% gets better successful picks. 92% is also a horrible number but 88% is good. So i'm really not sure how their system works.