Inaccurate Percentages

[JeniLinsky]

I've been watching the reported percentages. I took statistics in college, and have played tabletop RPGs with dice long enough that I understand that sometimes, you roll more 1s on that d20 than you'd expect. However, I also know that over a large sample, statistics should average out. Over a hundred items, if you have a 20% success rate, you should get 20 (plus or minus 2, say) items that you've hit that 20 percent on.

That's not what I'm seeing. There seem to be variables which are unreported, or the game has a really bad random number generator. Basically, if I have less than an 80% chance of success, I have about a 50% rate of actual success.

I'd prefer if the number shown reflected all variables, and actually bore some resemblance to the success rate.

[ReviiLagoon]

I call this this the X-Com factor, if you have ever played X-Com Enemy unknown, you will know exactly what I mean.

[roohan]

I'm always not sure if it is just me or if it is really like this in the game. I have the feeling that touches on crafts fail more often when the condition is good compared to normal.

[Raldo]

Data or it didn't happen. This better not be another one of those "oh, I just eyeballed it" posts.

[Bufkus]

There is some nasty RNG in this game but I'm not going to 100% say that it's definitely because the percentages are lying. It could be that you're just really unlucky.

[Vortok]

Years of playing Pokemon in my youth got me acquainted very quickly with what accuracy % I found acceptable and what would just lead to me yelling BS at the game. I found 80% to be around where I draw the line regardless of what the ability does when it hits.

[Sarnsereg]

I'm starting to wonder if we're being given a false sense of hope on things. I'm not kidding. last night I failed to get HQ on like 5 items where I had 87-98% chance of HQ. I would then turn around and get an HQ on an item I had all of 13% chance on .


maybe someone knows. but does the steady hand only give you you 20% of what the skill already is?

IE... hasty touch is 50%. you get 20% more. well 20% of 50% Is only 10%. so if you use strady hand plus hasty touch you would only have a 60% success rate? I mean. otherwise you would have a 70%.

my math classes would tell me that generally speaking 70% would mean that you succeed around 3 out of 4 attempts.....and I know for a fact that is not true. I consistently will use this and fail 7-10 out of 12 attempts.

[Lemon8or]

Sarnsereg, no it gives you additively. Have you ever seen a Standard Touch fail with Steady Hand or a Basic Touch fail with Steady Hand II? They both add to 100%. It's all RNG really. I've had times where I would not fail any 80% Hasty Touch in 10 minutes straight. The assumption that a 70% chance should give a 70% return in a large number of samples is a fallacy.

[zdub303]

Pretty sure this game just has a horrible random number generator.

[Kakure]

People don't understand math but think they do, news at 11:00!

We are plagued by an enormous number of psychological biases that distort our perception of the world around us.

We are more highly attuned to loss (the times you fail with a 98% chance of success) than gain (the times you succeed with a 2% success chance). We have a tendency to attribute our successes to positive personal characteristics and our failures to external factors; I succeed because I am a good crafter and use my abilities optimally, but I fail because I am unlucky. We vastly overestimate our own capabilities and, more importantly, the accuracy of our own judgment. Something like 90% of drivers rate their own driving as above average, for instance.

(continued)