Inaccurate Percentages

[Kakure]

When judging causality, we tend to place too much weight on anecdote and personal observation and far too little on objective data.

We are terrible - TERRIBLE - at estimating percentages and even worse at identifying randomness. Human beings excel at finding patterns and that skews our perception of randomness.

Notably, we have evidence from a diversity of fields suggesting that the worse people are at something, the more skewed their perception of their own abilities tends to be. Those who perform the worst on measures of multitasking are the ones who most overestimate their own capacity to multitask. People who perform the worst on math tests are the ones most overestimate their own math abilities.

When dealing with percentage and chance, a good rule of thumb is this:

If the percentage chance displayed on the screen doesn't seem right to you, it is because your perception is inaccurate, not the algorithm.

[CianaIezuborn]

When dealing with percentage and chance, a good rule of thumb is this:

If the percentage chance displayed on the screen doesn't seem right to you, it is because your perception is inaccurate, not the algorithm.

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