Inaccurate Percentages

[JeniLinsky]

I've been watching the reported percentages. I took statistics in college, and have played tabletop RPGs with dice long enough that I understand that sometimes, you roll more 1s on that d20 than you'd expect. However, I also know that over a large sample, statistics should average out. Over a hundred items, if you have a 20% success rate, you should get 20 (plus or minus 2, say) items that you've hit that 20 percent on.

That's not what I'm seeing. There seem to be variables which are unreported, or the game has a really bad random number generator. Basically, if I have less than an 80% chance of success, I have about a 50% rate of actual success.

I'd prefer if the number shown reflected all variables, and actually bore some resemblance to the success rate.

[ReviiLagoon]

I call this this the X-Com factor, if you have ever played X-Com Enemy unknown, you will know exactly what I mean.

[roohan]

I'm always not sure if it is just me or if it is really like this in the game. I have the feeling that touches on crafts fail more often when the condition is good compared to normal.

[NintenPyjak64]

I'm always not sure if it is just me or if it is really like this in the game. I have the feeling that touches on crafts fail more often when the condition is good compared to normal.

This actually makes sense to me considering if you succeed a good or excellent, you get more quality then if it was normal. Only makes sense that the success rate would be slightly less then norm.

[Ksenia]

I'm always not sure if it is just me or if it is really like this in the game. I have the feeling that touches on crafts fail more often when the condition is good compared to normal.

I've noticed that as well. for the first 18 levels on your launch craft you are stuck with a 70% touch and I hate seeing good in that phase of crafting because 90% of the time it meant the touch would fail.

As for general percentage, if you look in the gathering Achievements you will see 30, 300, 1,000, 2000, 4000 based on tier.

I am speculating but I think our crafting algorithm is tied to that. If you are doing a 41-50 craft and you have a 20% base HQ on NQ material, you can expect to craft 4000 of that item before you see the 20% pan out. I also think they shoved all the failures in to the the front of the pack because there is no chance this side of heavens gate anyone will craft 4000 items in a session. So the first 800 are subject to a much higher failure than 20% because the Algorithm would balance out after that and give you hundreds of HQ items in a row. Of course it makes the Algorithm useless as nobody will craft that much at a time.

tldr: We are being rick rolled.

[Laryndra]

I call this this the X-Com factor, if you have ever played X-Com Enemy unknown, you will know exactly what I mean.

Difference is Xcom determines whether or not you fail or succeed before you take the action based on the percentage chance. (To prevent you from being able to reload and save to avoid missing at a crucial moment). This game is random. 90% is 90%, still a 1/10 chance to fail, and you can still roll 1 on a 10 sided dice 5 times in a row if you're unlucky.

[Kakure]

I call this this the X-Com factor, if you have ever played X-Com Enemy unknown, you will know exactly what I mean.

X-COM uses random numbers just like any other game.

The game saves your seed, or maybe a sequence of random numbers pre-generated when you start a new game or load a new zone or whatever, to prevent you from cheating by reloading a saved game to get different combat results. That is intentional and in no way is it evidence that the numbers are anything less than random.

[Raldo]

Data or it didn't happen. This better not be another one of those "oh, I just eyeballed it" posts.

[Bufkus]

There is some nasty RNG in this game but I'm not going to 100% say that it's definitely because the percentages are lying. It could be that you're just really unlucky.

[Vortok]

Years of playing Pokemon in my youth got me acquainted very quickly with what accuracy % I found acceptable and what would just lead to me yelling BS at the game. I found 80% to be around where I draw the line regardless of what the ability does when it hits.