Garuda wp never drops? (WHM)

[Asdamine]

Small top: form a shout group with the intention of farming gear. Make sure every knows that the team will be farming Garuda 7-8 times and I guarantee you it will drop.

Because I did it once, farmed garuda 8 times in one night, everyone in the team got a weapon.

[Pikken]

Small top: form a shout group with the intention of farming gear. Make sure every knows that the team will be farming Garuda 7-8 times and I guarantee you it will drop.

Weeeoo weeeoo weeeoo, math police incoming!

What you say is akin to "if you roll a die 6 times, the chance of getting each number exactly once is 100%". Math police no like!

Tricky probability math incoming!

So, calculating the actual chance of getting exactly one of each of the 8 possible weapons when doing 8 runs of Garuda goes something like this:

Number of runs (R) = 8
Number of possible outcomes (different weapons) (W) = 8
Probability of a specific weapon dropping on a kill P1 = 1/W = 0.125
Probability of 8 specific weapons dropping in 8 runs (D) = P1^R = ~0.00000006
Numer of different orders you can get 8 unique weapons in (O) = R! = 40320
Total chance of getting 8 different weapons in 8 runs = D*O = 0.0024

So, the real answer is 2.4%!

[Asdamine]

So, the real answer is 2.4%!

What about the probability of you being one of the 2.4% person to get a weapon in the next round?

I mean, I agree with you assessment but you can't really talk about probability in something that comes from luck.

All I can say is in my experience, a continuous grind would give a more favourable result than just DF in random or doing it ust once a day.

On top of it, my group decided to pass everything if you don't need it. So it only have 2-3 people rolling greed on a ingle item for their alt class and the rest role need when what they want dropped.

All I am saying is, you can improve your chances by organising your own HM raid.