Turn 5 Twister Strategies Compendium

[SonyaArin]

-Snip-

Generally I feel that's how it's been working, yes. The circles happen to be a great way to do it in confined space so you don't run into other people's, or, in the case that someone DOES explode, you don't get blown away if they happen to fail their own.

[Xilrasis]

There is a ridiculous amount of confirmation bias going on with this mechanic, and much of it from people who have never experienced the false positives that Sonya describes. For that matter, i'm not even sure that anyone has a "true" understanding of how the mechanic works (BG included), but instead some have an understanding of what methods work more consistently than others. Its hard to get a read on how a mechanic truly functions when even the BEST case scenario is (again, as given by BG) an 80-90% success rate over the course of a string of attempts.

The "oh, you should have KNOWN its a circle" stuff should probably just go ahead and die off. You can relate nearly anything to any other thing in some way, similar to the Forer effect used by psychics. Call out random associations and eventually one is bound to stick. If the solution was to run in a straight line to the northeast, SOMEONE would equate it to "Oh, tornadoes mostly move northeasterly, the solution was SO clear... how did you not get it?"

The bottom line is that twister as a whole is a questionably designed mechanic, at best, and for a very long time to come even the best farm guilds are going to have nights where they get streaky wipes simply because the method didn't work for an essential raid member at an essential time (read: not a scholar). Using BG's numbers of 80-90% success, assuming only 3/4 targetted people are essential, you are still looking at best a 15% potential kill rate, per attempt, assuming everything else goes flawlessly and you only see 4 twisters. Those odds aren't particularly exciting to me as a raider.

[kukurumei]

There is a ridiculous amount of confirmation bias going on with this mechanic, and much of it from people who have never experienced the false positives that Sonya describes. For that matter, i'm not even sure that anyone has a "true" understanding of how the mechanic works (BG included), but instead some have an understanding of what methods work more consistently than others. Its hard to get a read on how a mechanic truly functions when even the BEST case scenario is (again, as given by BG) an 80-90% success rate over the course of a string of attempts.

The "oh, you should have KNOWN its a circle" stuff should probably just go ahead and die off. You can relate nearly anything to any other thing in some way, similar to the Forer effect used by psychics. Call out random associations and eventually one is bound to stick. If the solution was to run in a straight line to the northeast, SOMEONE would equate it to "Oh, tornadoes mostly move northeasterly, the solution was SO clear... how did you not get it?"

The bottom line is that twister as a whole is a questionably designed mechanic, at best, and for a very long time to come even the best farm guilds are going to have nights where they get streaky wipes simply because the method didn't work for an essential raid member at an essential time (read: not a scholar). Using BG's numbers of 80-90% success, assuming only 3/4 targetted people are essential, you are still looking at best a 15% potential kill rate, per attempt, assuming everything else goes flawlessly and you only see 4 twisters. Those odds aren't particularly exciting to me as a raider.

That's pot-kettle there.

How about asking BG doing what they did, instead of saying "freak coincidence" mouthing off.

A basic probability of 80% over 8 members 4 times. (not including all the previous trial and error runs that made it to a stream-line video win) is heavily against your argument. Anyone who studies basic dice roll theory will tell you that.

And theories about ping and lag...also heavily against your argument, because they were a mix group of nations, (half they admitted used battle ping, and half didn't). Thus that holds little water as well.

Face it someone took word-play leap of faith and payed off, now people say "Bah i could have done it too, if it weren't for your luck"

Phsaw, why can't some people take it honestly.

"Haha developers you got us" it's simple.

[Liander]

-

I'm not sure anything you said directly has anything to do with what Xil has stated, you just kind threw words together...

The basic design problem of twister in its current form is surviving when you shouldn't.
Example:
Attempt 1: Twister starts casting and I run in a straight line. I survive.
Attempt 2: I run in a straight line. I survive.
Attempt 3: I run in a straight line. I die.

All three are the exact same with different outcomes. Why am I surviving by running in a straight line when running in a circle is the correct way to do it? Now multiply that by hundred of combination of running out of twister and you can see the problem. There was never a clear picture of the mechanics intention. BG found circles was a bit higher % of surviving which we've observed as well. But 10-20% chance to die from a mechanic you're doing right shouldn't exist.

[Soukyuu]

The bottom line is that twister as a whole is a questionably designed mechanic, at best, and for a very long time to come even the best farm guilds are going to have nights where they get streaky wipes simply because the method didn't work for an essential raid member at an essential time (read: not a scholar).

I agreed with the rest of your post but: what? are you saying a scholar is not essential?

[Xilrasis]

I agreed with the rest of your post but: what? are you saying a scholar is not essential?

In terms of meeting the DPS requirement of the last two phases of the encounter, a scholar is a non-essential raid member. The twister phase is solo healable (there is zero extraneous damage) and as long as he's back up to support healing in the final phase, you are fine. Meanwhile, to use their video as an example, if a bard, monk, or BLM had died to twister, they would have very unceremoniously met the enrage timer due to having a DPS with the weakness debuff.

That's pot-kettle there.

How about asking BG doing what they did, instead of saying "freak coincidence" mouthing off.

A basic probability of 80% over 8 members 4 times. (not including all the previous trial and error runs that made it to a stream-line video win) is heavily against your argument. Anyone who studies basic dice roll theory will tell you that.

And theories about ping and lag...also heavily against your argument, because they were a mix group of nations, (half they admitted used battle ping, and half didn't). Thus that holds little water as well.

Face it someone took word-play leap of faith and payed off, now people say "Bah i could have done it too, if it weren't for your luck"

Phsaw, why can't some people take it honestly.

"Haha developers you got us" it's simple.

How about you ask BG how many attempts they did (i'd put money on it being in the triple digits) where their main tank or DPS or both healers died to twisters inexplicably and it forced them to reset, or they couldn't meet the DPS check in the twister or final phase as a result?

Pretty much every group out there who has been doing twisters for any extended period (Blue Garter included, as they gave with their per-member success rates) has attempts where no matter what you do, someone just dies. This turns the encounter into less of an "execute perfectly and beat the encounter" to an "execute perfectly and hope the right people survive so we CAN beat the encounter." There is a ceiling to how successful you can make yourself on the mechanic, and once you meet it you simply throw yourself at it until something sticks.

As for the probability -- do you even understand basic dice roll theory yourself? Or is this a case of "lets throw out some random words to try and reinforce my point"? The basic probability calculation is extremely simple. 4 people are targetted per cast, at (lets give them the benefit of the doubt) a 90% success rate. Lets say they ALWAYS only see 4 twisters during the phase. The SIMPLE probability is that they have a 65.6% chance of all players surviving per twister cast, which across 4 casts gives a total of 18% chance of full raid survival. If you drop the success rate to 85% with 5 casts of twister, you are looking at a 3.8% chance of full raid survival. This is, of course, assuming perfect player play throughout all other phases... this is just an 18% (or 3.8%) chance of moving through ONE specific phase cleanly. Unfortunately, people are only able to see the ONE attempt where they have actually killed the boss as opposed to the hundred(s) before, and i'm sure tens on monday where the tank or a DPS or both healers flopped over dead.

As for ping and lag, they make a very clear and decided difference in many other mechanics in the game, i'm not sure why this would be any different (Especially with such tight timing requirements).

[Richard_BG]

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Bahamut-Turn-5

[Aureliami]

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Bahamut-Turn-5

World 2nd kill incoming

[EikoCeuracanth]

World 2nd kill incoming

It really depends on what the changes to Phase 2 actually are. I somehow doubt it but the wording on Yoshi P's post could imply tanks that step into conflag will drop threat on Twintania meaning 2nd on the threat table takes the boss until the conflag is dead.

[Xilrasis]

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Bahamut-Turn-5

Curious -- did you guys manage to pull a repeat today or still pending?