Gathering success rates broken?

[DukeBurden]

Hey, guys. Does anyone else feel like the % displayed are false/wrong? I've been logging for about 30min now and I've failed atleast once on every node so far. Farming at an 83% rate seems like you'd miss once every fourth tree or so but it happens WAY TOO OFTEN. Even when farming at +10% bonus, i'll miss atleast once and it's even happened where I miss twice in a row. The math just doesn't make sense. Maybe i'm just noticing it more cause it's bugging the shit out of me. It reminds me of the FFXI melee formula where you always had a 5% chance to miss no matter how high your accuracy stat was.

[DukeBurden]

I went afk on this gathering +10% node to write this thread. When I continued logging; Miss -> HQ log -> miss -> log. !?!?!?!?!??!!?!?!?!?!

[Zeele_Hoshiyume]

I had the same feeling the days after the patch.

Sometimes I got like 4 times HQ Item on one node. even with buff, at 30% to gain 4 times HQ of 4 strokes is like unbelievable. On the other hand, even with a gathering %age of 97% i found myself sometimes to miss twice or thrice in a row.

As for crafting its the same. 10% to fail, and I failed 5 of 6 times. I guess the math is off somewhere and that there is always a randome number that is generated per node or craft and not everytime you use a skill or attempt to craft. This would make a lot more sense to me, if you have a bad number per node and therefore miss always at this node or get all HQ. Also would explain why sometime a craft seems to be impossible, even if its just a 10% fail rate.

[Sinaloa]

Hey, guys. Does anyone else feel like the % displayed are false/wrong? I've been logging for about 30min now and I've failed atleast once on every node so far. Farming at an 83% rate seems like you'd miss once every fourth tree or so but it happens WAY TOO OFTEN. Even when farming at +10% bonus, i'll miss atleast once and it's even happened where I miss twice in a row. The math just doesn't make sense. Maybe i'm just noticing it more cause it's bugging the shit out of me. It reminds me of the FFXI melee formula where you always had a 5% chance to miss no matter how high your accuracy stat was.

Once every 4th tre would be 94% asuming you dont have good enough gear to get the boni of the nodes. This thread read like I harvested 85 nodes in a row with sucess but dont lets talk about that thats normal with 85% chance. But then I missed 15 nodes in a row - That just cant be it.

[Shuon]

i'm gonna quote someone else on this...

"maths in reality is never certain, and reality certainly isn't maths"

i'm sorry you are frustrated but that's statistics for you. with a large enough sample size the results will normalise.

[DukeBurden]

I wonder if it's going off your current achievement. I'm currently working on Logging in the hours: Black Shroud for 2,000 logs. I guess out of 2,000 logs my miss rate would definetly be higher.

[Lyein]

I just wonder if SE logged all these attempts and compared the numbers whether it really would come out even? Still, the biggest issue is when the RNG gets stuck on a certain result. We all give examples of outlier results; 14 HQ hits at 15%, 5 misses at 98%, etc. These things _do_ happen. They just shouldn't be happening as frequently as they do. I fear for the patch when the RNG gets replaced and we see what bugs crop up from the change -_-

[Lstkaws]

I have been tracking this in a spreadsheet and it seems likely that the algorithms they use may be slightly off from what is displayed on the screen. I am going to keep tracking for a larger sample size.

[Deolus]

What I've noticed after doing a LOT of mining and gathering is that if your success rate on those nodes is >95%, then for each stack of 99 normal quality items you will usually end up with around 15 high quality items. This is without using skills to increase your HQ chance. If you almost have a stack of 99 but don't yet have 15 HQ, then you tend to get several HQ harvests in a row. Seems the game keeps track of the items in your inventory (or maybe I'm just imagining this stuff).

[Deolus]

The above also applies to items dropped from mobs also. For each stack of 99 NQ, you will usually end up with about 15 HQ.