90% sucess rate and still missing

[ruinedmirage]

I've said this in another thread, but the alternative is everyone's NQ and HQ drops increase. As a result, you see more HQ stuff eventually sift out all NQ items in the market. If HQ items become standard issue, you might as well throw away any NQ stuff, because it won't be worth selling.

A lot of people start crafting for the extra income. Increased NQ and HQ gathering rates will ensure inflation, especially combined with the increased exp after the patch, which means more people are leveling up DoL/DoH classes.

I think the best solution would be to split the adventuring classes and the gathering/crafting classes, or limit the number of crafting classes you can level up (specializing). It makes it so that people have to rely on other people. This IS supposed to be an MMO, right?

[Astarica]

There is no way for any one player to observe any 'psuedo-randomness' because the world does not revolve around you. No matter what pattern the RNG may actually possess, by the time you even made a second attempt to gather, tens if not thousands of other players have requested a RNG roll in between that time through any number of actions in this game that require a RNG roll, thus completely negating whatever pattern that may have existed. The only way to see a pattern is if you're able to gather the rolls of every single player playing FF14 at the same time. Otherwise, even if there is a pattern, no single player can ever see it because random players will take your expected roll all the time.

[Xbob42]

There is no way for any one player to observe any 'psuedo-randomness' because the world does not revolve around you. No matter what pattern the RNG may actually possess, by the time you even made a second attempt to gather, tens if not thousands of other players have requested a RNG roll in between that time through any number of actions in this game that require a RNG roll, thus completely negating whatever pattern that may have existed. The only way to see a pattern is if you're able to gather the rolls of every single player playing FF14 at the same time. Otherwise, even if there is a pattern, no single player can ever see it because random players will take your expected roll all the time.

That's the dumbest thing I've read all day, thanks!

[Astarica]

There is no RNG dedicated to your rolls. There isn't even a dedicated crafting RNG or gathering RNG or whatever. Let's say an alleged RNG simply generates the sequence '89X9 91' forever. Therefore the first 9 rolls are guaranteed to succeed with 90% chance to succeed and the last roll is guaranteed to fail with 90% odds. There's nothing random about this sequence, though it satisfies succeeding 9 out of 10 times with 90% odds.

Now say you're trying to take advantage of this. You can't, because a guy shooting an arrow at a mob will randomly use up one of these numbers, so is the other guy getting hit by a sheep elsewhere, and in fact virtually every action in the game uses up a RNG, so despite you know the exact sequence of numbers generated, it is never possible for any one player to observe any pattern even if there is supposed to be one.

[Bufkus]

I missed HQ on a 98% chance earlier today. Just glad it wasn't anything I cared about.
That is some messed up RNG.

[Douten]

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

[unami1]

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

This has nothing to do with the thread but I talked at length one day with one of our local network weatherman and he stated that in fact when they say there is , for example, a 30% chance for rain they mean that 30% of the viewing area has a 100% chance of measurable precipitation. So in essence 12 days without any rain on your particular area with a 90% chance could still be considered right.

[Chadzuk]

Whether it's the randomization ability of the game or something to do with how the skills actually calculate chance, something is definitely not right. I have been crafting a ton and the improbability of me failing the amount I have at 80% - 90% is astronomical. The moment I lose steady hands, my ability that grants me an 80% chance to increase quality fails constantly. No, not 1 out of every 5, like 3 or 4 out of every 5 on a CONSTANT basis. This starts happening more at higher levels of crafting. There is either something wrong with the randomizer or it is done on purpose and they just aren't giving you all the details on how it is calculated.

[Xbob42]

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

[Kaizlu]

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

I've noticed this.

I've been trying to get my DoHs to 50 and while leveling the crafts are becoming easier as in "RNG gods being good with me". In theory leveling up you should only see an increase of how much progress (Crafting) and quality (Control) you get per action and not an increase of success chance while doing items - but I've experienced less failed Hasty Hands as I level up my classes.

It's just weird.