Yoshida has said before something along the lines of, if a game is confusing it isn't fun. I think he's going to clear up a lot of this crap, speculation and superstition alike. Even if you say it's ALMOST 100% certainty, it's not a fact. Also the moon phase in the game doesn't line up with the moon phase widget so it's hard to tell what's what. Either way I've noticed bad luck and good luck in any and every moon phase on various crafts, I've never personally seen conclusive evidence to support or deny moon phases doing anything.