Bards and BL and Crit and RoB

[pandabearcat]

Hey everyone,

I was a bit bored, so I wrote a little program to calculate the effect of critical chance on RoB procs, and the amount of BL you do.

The simulation ran over the course of 360 seconds (6 minutes), with a base crit rate of 15% (~500 crit), and assumed IR usage.

100000 trials were run, and here are the results:

Base Critical Rate: 15.0
Trials: 100000 Procs: 3308577 BLs: 4626290
Average Procs: 33.08577 Average IR Procs: 11.98838 Average BLs: 46.2629 Average IR BLs: 11.98838
Total seconds saved: 24542659 Average Seconds saved: 245.42658999999998 Average Seconds saved per Proc: 7.417889624451841

EDIT: the original model was wrong, but this should be right. Pretty graphs incoming.

# of BL's and RoB procs as Crit increases:



Rate of Increase of # of Procs and BLs as Crit increases:

[EasymodeX]

The simulation ran over the course of 360 seconds (6 minutes), with a base crit rate of 15% (~500 crit), and assumed IR usage.

100000 trials were run, and here are the results:

Trials: 100000 Procs: 6034321 BLs: 6556674

So if I'm interpreting correctly, your 15% crit rate simulation resulted in 360 * 100,000 / (6556674) = 0.1821 bloodletters per second.

The assumed uptime for both WB and VB is 100%? And the simulation is based on 2 chances to crit simultaneously every 3s? 100% Straight Shot uptime for 10% more crit?

[pandabearcat]

So if I'm interpreting correctly, your 15% crit rate simulation resulted in 360 * 100,000 / (6556674) = 0.1821 bloodletters per second.

The assumed uptime for both WB and VB is 100%? And the simulation is based on 2 chances to crit simultaneously every 3s? 100% Straight Shot uptime for 10% more crit?

Yes, the assumptions are

• 100% uptime for VB, WB, SS.
• 2 simultaneous proc chances.
• You only BL during offGCDs

Actually for the last assumption, I also, on a whim, tested what would happen if you assumed you could BL every 10th of a second, ignoring all other attacks and all animation locks.

Guess what happened? You gained between 0 and 1 BLs over the course of 360 seconds.

Safe to say, you lose no dps by only using BL on off GCD windows.

I hope that finally puts that discussion to rest.

Also: informative chart and effect of increasing Crit on RoB procs in a minute, once I get them uploaded.

[EasymodeX]

Just to verify, when IR is down, each tick is resulting in a 22% chance for a BL proc right?

[pandabearcat]

Just to verify, when IR is down, each tick is resulting in a 22% chance for a BL proc right?

I assumed SS added a flat 10%, so I used .25.

Was that wrong? I haven't played archer in a while.

If thats wrong, then what does IR add? Maybe I got that incorrect as well.

[EasymodeX]

No, I have a model that's structured significantly different than what you're doing. I was just checking to see that the # of bloodletter procs were in the same vague ballpark. I'm getting about half the # of BL procs that you are.

My model looks at a base 15% crit rate, adds 10% for straight shot and a modeled 5% (20% * 15s / 60s) for IR when IR applies (I'll ignore IR for now).

At a 25% crit rate, every DOT tick has 2 chances to crit*. The chance for a crit and therefore a "ROB-eligible" tick is: (1 - (1 - 25%) * (1 - 25%)) = 43.73%*. Half of that is 21.86% chance for a ROB proc*.

* These are all based on the server-side DOT tick assumption.

I ignore hardcasts and only assess proc bloodletters.

That is a 22% ROB'd BL every 3 seconds, or 0.073 BL per second. With a modeled IR, that is 0.085 BL per second.


Your 15% simulation has 6556674 / (360s * 100,000) = 0.182 BL per second, which is significantly different.

So, I'm trying to see whether the simulation / hardcasts / animations is causing such a difference, or if it's something in the way I'm incorporating BL in my model. Or maybe your sim ^_^.

[pandabearcat]

Oh, I know exactly what the problem is.

I didn't only have a 50% chance of proccing.

Lemme go fix that.

EDIT: its been fixed, the new numbers look like

Base Critical Rate: 15.0
Trials: 100000 Procs: 3308577 BLs: 4626290
Average Procs: 33.08577 Average IR Procs: 11.98838 Average BLs: 46.2629 Average IR BLs: 11.98838
Total seconds saved: 24542659 Average Seconds saved: 245.42658999999998 Average Seconds saved per Proc: 7.417889624451841

So its about a 0.09 BL per second, which is on the same level as your model.

What is interesting about the sim is that each proc saves you on average over 7 seconds on your BL...thats pretty impressive.

[EasymodeX]

Lol, I did the same thing when I originally edited my formulas.

[pandabearcat]

I fixed it...also I uploaded some graphs.

Whats really interesting though is the rate of increase.

As you increase crit, each crit is valued less and less for RoB proc increases, however...they are valued more and more for total BL increases.

I have NO idea why this is the case, but suffice to say it seems the more crit you have, the more you want crit.

Go go crazy Bards.

[EasymodeX]

I have NO idea why this is the case, but suffice to say it seems the more crit you have, the more you want crit.

Perhaps in terms of #BLs, but that's a bit of a sweeping statement ^_^.

Crit still has decay per point, although it decays much more slowly than for other stats / classes.


Sidenote: that result for +BL/crit is still weird.