% chance of obtaining?

[Ayelwen]

Had three 98% fail in a row, had four 83% fail in a row. I honestly feel like they're using a Round-Down somewhere.

The 98% were HQ Percentage in Culinarian. (I completed the synthesis, but the product came out NQ, three times in a row, with 98% HQ all three times.)

83% were gathering attempts on Botanist. I've noticed huge discrepancies while on my botanist. I keep thinking I want to write down the % and whether it failed or succeded for like a week or two to find out what the % actually turns out to be. But then I realize.. Im just trying to get to 50 and I'm not going to waste time fiddling with pencil and paper.

EDIT:

Also, here's a brief post on someone who also talks about the RNG a little bit. Granted, he hasn't reach 50.
http://www.keenandgraev.com/2013/08/...ffxiv-crafting