The Road to 5.0

[LuckyFish]

Theory on the coming Calamity:

The Flood of Light seems to be a different thing than the Calamity itself. We've already had an Astral Calamity (Bahamut), so an Umbral Calamity is next on the docket. My prediction is that stopping the Umbral Calamity is what would lead to the Flood of Light, as we would have "Defeated the Darkness." Puts us in a no-win situation.

As for the Calamity itself, I think that fomenting rebellion in Garlemald would start the chain of events by justifying an Imperial crackdown on dissidents. As the situation in the Garlean Empire escalates, Not-Zenos would use the Black Rose to kill people en masse. Somehow, this would lead to a chain reaction, perhaps via an ice-9 transition (freshly dead release more Black Rose?) or perhaps interaction with some unknown factor (the shield over the Burn?). The result would be that the gas spreads over much of the land, killing everything it touches and leaving the land barren. Death on this scale from such a dark cause might even be enough to tear open a Void portal.

Even if I'm off the mark, I'm pretty sure the elements of rebellion, Black Rose, and the Burn Shield will all be important here

[Ramesses]

So based on 4.4 stinger the villain of 5.0 is most likely

the Ascian known as Solus zos Galvus

Yes indeed...

And its weird that even though I have been speculating on these forums for ages that he must have had Allagan or Ascian "assistance" in building his empire...(or was the physical embodiment of a suspected thirteenth god who ceded from the Twelve)... I was still surprised that he literally IS an Ascian.

Which now has me more excited than ever for several reasons... so many reasons.

• One, I'm beginning to wonder, not if... but when Gaius found out about this. My gut instinct tells me that he already knows about Solus, he's too brilliantly intelligent to have been naive to this issue... the question is, how long has he known?
• Did he find out just before the Succession War erupted and as such, was that his real reason for refusing the order to return to Garlemald?
• Did he already know about Solus being an Ascian even before he started his campaign on Eorzea and that was how he was introduced to Lahabrea?
• Heck, did he also find out a way to kill Ascians because he found out a way by observing Solus?

Then there is Solus himself... where do I even want to start with this chap?

• How has he really been managing his various descendants in House Galvus?
• Could he have even had his eldest son (Varis' father?) killed once the guy found out his secret? And then gleefully watched from his deathbed while Varis and Titus dragged half the empire into chaos?
• What was the real purpose of decimating Dalmasca? To make an example or actually to fuel his "program" of sowing chaos? Is the Legatus of the IVth legion --Noah Van Gabranth-- truly that ruthless or he's just fanatically loyal to the Crown? (Or was that Zenos-Elibidus' doing?) I'd really like to see )
• And does this mean we get to involve ourselves in a rebuilding program for Dalmasca sometime in 5.0?
• Lots of questions and i'm too busy IRL right now to really give it critical thought... but for now, my most important question is: why the heck is Solus back now? Why?

Yes indeed, I think for now Gaius is our master key to unlocking these questions...




Yes... this guy.

[Cilia]

On Solus...

Well, now this is amusing!

Long have I suspected the Ascians had a hand in Garlemald's rise to power, but I didn't suspect it went beyond a simple nudge - giving them the technology to build warmachina, chiefly. Instead we now know that it went from a struggling backwater to a global superpower because of direct Ascian manipulation, and that he fed them lies the whole time to get them doing what he wanted! Eikons causing the Burn... the racist garbage... their "civilizing mission"... doing so to put eikons under their heel and keep the world safe... nothing but a bunch of meaningless lies!!!

Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...! Well played. Well played, Solus!

Anyway, let's set out what seems to have actually happened.

"Solus" accomplishes what he does by introducing the Garleans to warmachina, then continues onto Othard and the Burn, showing the Garleans the effects of aether starvation. He lies that this is the result of eikons (none of which were known to have been summoned in the Sixth Astral Era before Silvertear!), retroactively justifying the Garlean conquest of Ilsabard and justifying further conquest under the idea that the world must be brought to heel. From there on, he doesn't really need to do anything - Garlemald bought the lie, and with that in place will continue to grind its war machine against the world under the belief (heh) it's what's right.

Meanwhile, after the disaster at Silvertear and Midgardsormr's death, other Ascians (and perhaps "Solus" himself) teach the Beast Tribes summoning rites, which they use in response to Garlemald's aggression, "justifying" that aggression, leading to an endless spiral of violence. At this point the (Legacy) Warrior of Light enters the picture, forestalling the Garlean advance and quelling the Beast Tribes. When Nael offers to use Meteor, "Solus" accepts and doesn't look back because it's exactly what he wants. Though it wasn't a full success thanks to the future Scions and Louisoix's sacrifice, it was enough to accomplish his mission - and with that out of the way, his aging mortal body, and everything in place for Garlemald to continue stirring up trouble, "Solus" leaves the stage.

Only... that's not what happens.

Lahabrea's arrogance fails them twice, getting himself and Igeyorhm killed. Varis, after winning the war of succession, focuses more on stabilizing Garlemald and building his power base. The war machine stalls. The Warrior of Light and Scions' efforts begin to spread peace, and even some Garleans want in it. All of his efforts are being threatened.

So... along with Elidibus possessing Zenos' corpse so they can kill him and assume direct control if Varis proves uncooperative, "Solus" comes back and tells Varis the truth about the Empire and its mission. This development puts Varis in a vicegrip - he can either comply with the Ascians' wishes willingly, or defy them, get killed, and have the Ascians assume direct control (again).

Varis, on the other hand, earnestly believes the lies he was fed growing up and wants to make that fiction into reality. There was no need to know about "Solus" or the Empire's true nature, so long as they fulfilled their purpose - so why would he know the truth?

On the one hand... it's clear Varis is now in over his head, two Ascians holding a noose around his neck and making him dance to their tune. On the other, it's... fairly certain that without said noose he'd still be gunning for universal domination, just not at a pace the Ascians find acceptable. (More accurately he wouldn't be trying to create conflicts all the time, but he still wouldn't have trouble with using violence against those opposed to his ambitions.) I must admit, I'm quite curious as to how this is going to play out.

How... very... amusing...

As for how much the Shadowhunter (totally not Gaius) knows? None can say. Were I a betting man (and I assure you I am not), I would wager he knows there's Ascian corruption in Garlemald but not quite the depth it goes to. Makes me question whether Lahabrea approached Gaius of his own accord, or "Solus" hooked him up before leaving the stage...

Let's just see... heheheh...

[Mieck]

Small thought on...

The red and blue guards with Livia-esq masks in the Imperial Throne Chamber. A riff on Zorn and Thorn, perhaps?

[Bright-Flower]

Small thought on...

The red and blue guards with Livia-esq masks in the Imperial Throne Chamber. A riff on Zorn and Thorn, perhaps?

Oh I didn't catch onto that, nice catch.

I noticed the red and blue colors but stopped at 'huh that's odd they don't match.' But that could indeed be a reference to FF's 2nd and 3rd best clowns.

[YianKutku]

Small thought on...

The red and blue guards with Livia-esq masks in the Imperial Throne Chamber. A riff on Zorn and Thorn, perhaps?

Not just Livia masks, but also gun-baghnakhs, like she had. Which was a ridiculous enough weapon that I was surprised that it turned up again.

I do find them particularly interesting. When Zenos was trying to get a reaction out of Varis, they were just impassively standing there at parade rest.

But when Solus appeared, they turned to stare at him in what seemed like surprise, based on their body language; they were out of parade rest, arms down at their sides. Not up in defense, so they weren't alarmed by a sudden intruder, but they weren't professionally imitating statues like they should have been.

Then Varis shot Solus, and the two guards watched Solus's body tumble down the stairs, still in their "what is this unexpected thing happening" pose.

Then Solus reappeared alive and well, and the guards returned to parade rest.

So these guards are aware of the immortality of Ascians (or at least of Solus), and of Solus's rantings. They were not aware that Solus would just pop up whenever he wanted, or that this would be a thing he did. This is a curiously specific amount of need-to-know.

Ten characters to defeat the forum software.

[Mieck]

Not just Livia masks, but also gun-baghnakhs, like she had. Which was a ridiculous enough weapon that I was surprised that it turned up again.

I do find them particularly interesting. When Zenos was trying to get a reaction out of Varis, they were just impassively standing there at parade rest.

But when Solus appeared, they turned to stare at him in what seemed like surprise, based on their body language; they were out of parade rest, arms down at their sides. Not up in defense, so they weren't alarmed by a sudden intruder, but they weren't professionally imitating statues like they should have been.

Then Varis shot Solus, and the two guards watched Solus's body tumble down the stairs, still in their "what is this unexpected thing happening" pose.

Then Solus reappeared alive and well, and the guards returned to parade rest.

So these guards are aware of the immortality of Ascians (or at least of Solus), and of Solus's rantings. They were not aware that Solus would just pop up whenever he wanted, or that this would be a thing he did. This is a curiously specific amount of need-to-know.

Ten characters to defeat the forum software.

Yep, I rewatched the scene yesterday, and I got similar vibes from their behaviour. They move together, from what I could see.

From a purely practical standpoint, it makes sense to surround Varis with people he cannot trust, but whose outward appearance will not raise suspicion in the general population; ie, if he is simply seen with his "honour guard" at events, no one would bat an eyelid, but they serve to remind Varis that he is being maintained as the human face of this nest of Shadowbringers.

[Quor]

I remember someone mentioning in the patch discussion thread about

how Y'shtola moved a metaphorical mountain of aether and no one seems to have batted an eye. There was some brief speculation about what the Allagans did, but it was very brief, and quickly handwaved away as an energy source for the shields in the Burn was needed. But what if the House of the Crooked Coin wasn't stopping the aether from flowing to the Burn per se, but rather acting as a valve against something else? It's not a coincidence, in my mind anyway, that we hear a strange voice that "calls" our soul from our bodies not long after opening the flow from the Steppe to the Burn. What if the HotCC was built intentionally to cut off the flow of aether to a certain area to prevent something from getting and using that aether? What if there are other such valves that, in a sense, serve to isolate a part of the aetheric map away from the normal flow of aether in an attempt to starve that particular area of resource? At the very least, even if there isn't some kind of isolation of an entity being done, it seems too convenient that Zodiark calls us so soon after aether begins to flow to the Burn again.

[YianKutku]

From a purely practical standpoint, it makes sense to surround Varis with people he cannot trust, but whose outward appearance will not raise suspicion in the general population; ie, if he is simply seen with his "honour guard" at events, no one would bat an eyelid, but they serve to remind Varis that he is being maintained as the human face of this nest of Shadowbringers.

Speaking of surrounding Varis with people he cannot trust, I now wonder how much of a blow losing Regula turned out to be, given that he was Varis's close and trusted friend. Given the events of the Warring Triad, I think it's safe to say Regula was not aware of the revelations we learned in 4.4.

And then there's the whole issue with the Warring Triad storyline involving Regula and Unukalhai, and Unukalhai's link to Elidibus, and now I have a headache.

[Remedi]

I remember someone mentioning in the patch discussion thread about

how Y'shtola moved a metaphorical mountain of aether and no one seems to have batted an eye. There was some brief speculation about what the Allagans did, but it was very brief, and quickly handwaved away as an energy source for the shields in the Burn was needed. But what if the House of the Crooked Coin wasn't stopping the aether from flowing to the Burn per se, but rather acting as a valve against something else? It's not a coincidence, in my mind anyway, that we hear a strange voice that "calls" our soul from our bodies not long after opening the flow from the Steppe to the Burn. What if the HotCC was built intentionally to cut off the flow of aether to a certain area to prevent something from getting and using that aether? What if there are other such valves that, in a sense, serve to isolate a part of the aetheric map away from the normal flow of aether in an attempt to starve that particular area of resource? At the very least, even if there isn't some kind of isolation of an entity being done, it seems too convenient that Zodiark calls us so soon after aether begins to flow to the Burn again.

Wouldn't surprise me, that was a prometheus moment tbh and frankly something we accuse the garleans of doing too often. While we were in a dire need, the very existance of such a device shoudl've sparked a research of sort. However I suppose that it wouldn't have been possible since the devotion of the dotharls and other tribes for the place. Perhaps even silvertear lake had one of those devices and the agrius fell on it, who knows.