You are never going to get a house

If you didn't already get a personal house, you are never going to get a house under the current housing ward system. That sentiment is not negativity or pessimism. It's simply the reality of the numbers you are up against.

I saw at least 10 bids per personal house towards the end of the lottery - many with more. So we can make a very conservative estimate that the 360 available houses had 3600 bidders. That leaves 3240 losing bidders. Houses are not going to be available in these numbers for a very long time. They're only going to pop up for sale 1 or 2 at a time rare intervals, and even rarer still whenever autodemolish is turned off. Every time a house goes on sale, it will definitely have hundreds or even thousands of bidders. At those odds, you can go a lifetime without ever getting a house.

Do not let others encourage you with false hope. The words "Well I got a house, don't give up!" do absolutely nothing to mitigate the insurmountable odds against you.

This is not a failure of the lottery system. It is still an improvement over the old system, in which the only ways to get a house were through dysfunctional behavior (camping a placard for hours) or by cheating with a bot. Though lottery system is an improvement over the system it replaced, it cannot fix a housing system that is broken to the core.

The lottery system has laid bare the inadequacy of the housing wards to meet the needs of the players. Even changing the allocation % between FC and personal wards would not have fixed the problem. In the extreme case of making all 24 wards personal only, the majority of bidders would still be left without a house, and you are back in the same scenario of having hundreds of bids every time a single house comes up for sale. Until there is instanced housing, remember: You are never going to get a house. For over 90% of you, my prediction is correct.

Most of the player base has access to a house through FC housing. What the hell are you smoking?

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Originally Posted by Pablomaldito

"Well I got a house, don't give up!"

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Who is even saying this, especially after the lottery dumpster fire lul

this is prime doomer juice material

I know.

Sigh.

Yeah but instanced housing is lame and sucks

That's on Balmung because it's Balmung. The numbers are probably lower on other worlds.

I have an apartment, so I'm happy.

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Do not let others encourage you with false hope. The words "Well I got a house, don't give up!" do absolutely nothing to mitigate the insurmountable odds against you.

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People go through insurmountable odds just living every day? Want to tell of them to drop dead because "Oh the odds are stacked against you. Might as well die!" Stop being a clout troll and spreading the doom and gloom because you think a system isn't fair.

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For over 90% of you, my prediction is correct.

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Where did this number even come from?! Did you pull it out of thin air or do you have some sort of magic tool that's going to predict the lives of everyone who has or will ever play XIV?

In a day plagued with bugs, frustrations, and people who are afraid of what lies tomorrow in terms of housing. Who are you to come out of nowhere and just suck whatever joy was left into the very void you call a forum post.

The odds of surviving each day are far higher than the odds of getting a personal house. And I got my number from the 9/10 bidders (or more) who did not get a personal house from the initial lottery. They now now face future housing prospects consisting of a trickle of houses with hundreds or thousands of others bidding against them every single time. The bugs in the lottery are but a mere distraction. The lottery must indeed be fixed quickly, but fixing the lottery will do nothing to fix the underlying supply issue.

Well i did not get a house, but i am happy to have finally a apartment. Never get a house is wrong, i will maybe give a try again on one of the new servers, there should be a good chance to get a house.

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Originally Posted by Pablomaldito

The odds of surviving each day are far higher than the odds of getting a personal house. And I got my number from the 9/10 bidders (or more) who did not get a personal house from the initial lottery. They now now face future housing prospects consisting of a trickle of houses with hundreds or thousands of others bidding against them every single time. The bugs in the lottery are but a mere distraction. The lottery must indeed be fixed quickly, but fixing the lottery will do nothing to fix the underlying supply issue.

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I'm sorry, you got your number from that small of a sample size and calling it a fact? You're entire argument falls apart on just that alone. Not to mention the initial lottery was so bugged that people who went for a house were the only bidder lost a bug in the code. Not to mention in terms of housing for everyone apartments are an option and you can do a whole lot with them. Yeah you can't have a yard or actual 2nd floors but it supplements those who either can't get a house or don't feel the need to have it tethered to their sub (which is an issue you could have brought up instead.) Not to mention, there are people who move out whether it be by relocation, deciding having a house isn't worth it anymore, or just leave it for over 45days and it auto-demos.

(Also, I think you're stretching it just a bit if you think living to see tomorrow is a higher probability of getting a house.)

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Originally Posted by JazzStationOne

I'm sorry, you got your number from that small of a sample size and calling it a fact? You're entire argument falls apart on just that alone. Not to mention the initial lottery was so bugged that people who went for a house were the only bidder lost a bug in the code. Not to mention in terms of housing for everyone apartments are an option and you can do a whole lot with them. Yeah you can't have a yard or actual 2nd floors but it supplements those who either can't get a house or don't feel the need to have it tethered to their sub (which is an issue you could have brought up instead.) Not to mention, there are people who move out whether it be by relocation, deciding having a house isn't worth it anymore, or just leave it for over 45days and it auto-demos.

(Also, I think you're stretching it just a bit if you think living to see tomorrow is a higher probability of getting a house.)

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My "small sample size" was from scouting almost every house in wards 19-24 as I decided on a house to bid on during the last day. If every house has over 10 bids, then every house must have at least 9 losing bidders. The math isn't hard. I also don't understand your point about people moving out of their houses. That is the same exact trickle of houses which will have hundreds or thousands of bids that I had mentioned.

As for apartments, well.... telling someone what they can do instead of getting a house pretty much supports the argument that they are never going to get a house.

Saying you are never going to get a house is every bit as inaccurate as saying you will definitely get a house, just the opposite side of the spectrum. The only way to guarantee that you do not get a house is by not participating.

This post isn't even a rant. It's a woven spindle of false information with a purpose to deter and discourage players from participating, and when players have shown to be dedicated enough to camp themselves into a stupor trying to get some land, nothing short of a server apocalypse will even begin to shake their resolve.

My recommendation bub, is to ride out this storm, and when the dust settles, place an entry just like everyone else. You can try to manipulate the system, and the players, but no matter what you will never leave the realm of chance when it comes to owning a house in FFXIV

24X60 = 1440 houses per server, x 6 = 8640 then, x 2 for chaos and light, that's just short of 18K new houses for a few millions new users...

Cynism aside, i truely hope island sanctuary is some kind of answer to this.

Under the current system, it is far more inaccurate to say "You will definitely get a house" vs "You will never get a house". One of those statements describes the fate of overwhelmingly more players than the other. And my point is not to discourage people from participating in the lottery. Participating in housing with the lottery takes a minimal time investment as long as you permanently set aside gil for that purpose. But under the CURRENT SYSTEM, manage your expectations. Maintaining any hope in the current system is foolish. It must change. If it doesn't, then my statement remains true. You will never get a house.

Already got a house.

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Originally Posted by Sarevok_Thordin

Already got a house.

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Congratulations!
That statement is totally fine when it's not followed by empty words of encouragement.

I got a house too.

If you don't mind moving to OCE, there are tons of plots here with no applicants. It would be a big move, but you can get your house. Hell probably have space enough for your friends, the FC, the dog, and the dog's FC.