Drop rates in Paglth'an

I\\'m curious about what other folks\\' luck has been like with loot in Paglth\\'an. I\\'ve been trying to accumulate all the pieces for the ranged DPS set. It\\'s not my favorite of them all, but I\\'m a bard main, and femroes look mighty fine in these \\'fits. So anyway, I think I\\'ve done maybe 15-20 Paglth\\'an runs total including Expert roulette.

But I have yet to see the ranged chest piece even drop. Someone I came across during a run hadn\\'t yet seen the casting chest piece drop and was going for that, also having done many runs thus far. I haven\\'t seen more than 5 chest pieces drop, 3 of those being for NIN. And I know that high-demand loot always has lower than average to abysmally low drop rates, but this is just an MSQ dungeon at the tail end of an expansion.

Is this a normal thing for FFXIV dungeons? I started playing last year so I\\'m not super familiar with the mathematics of it all, but I guess I\\'m glad that Paglth\\'an is at least pretty quick and has pretty (mentally) painless mechanics. There are worse dungeons to grind through.

I spent 2 days straight farming Ghimlyt Dark for the Alliance Vest of Striking, so... yeah, RNG can really mess with you

I tell yha, it's the desire sensor.

Get a party with nobody aiming in it, and nobody WANTS the aiming set, and the full set will drop, right onto the ground.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Anemoshi

I\\'m not super familiar with the mathematics of it all

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Hi, I teach college courses on discrete mathematics, so I am super familiar with the maths. Here is one of our previous discussions on randomness on the forums.

Note that the number of jobs, and therefore the number of weapons, has changed since that thread, but here is one of the major highlights:

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Originally Posted by Rongway

So, if there are fifteen weapons each with an equal probability of dropping, there is a (1 - (14/15)^n) probability that you will see the weapon you want within a given set of n runs.

Now, given a high enough n, this value approaches, but does not reach 100%. And remember what I said earlier: if the probability is not 0% or 100% you cannot claim any guarantees.

Does it suck that you haven't seen the item you want after X runs? Sure. Is something wrong with the system? No. You just don't understand randomness.

Even if the one weapon you wanted had a 99% chance of dropping, there still exists a 1% chance that you will not see it after a given run. After 100 runs, there would be a 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% chance that you would see the item you want. But this still isn't 100%, and though it would be incredibly unlikely that you didn't see the item you wanted, it would still be possible.

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I'm having this as well, been doing the dungeon for the past 3 or 4 days and not seen the Striking Boots I want for my Samurai. I just hope at SOME point they add Dungeon Merchants into the game where you can trade in the dungeon armor piece you don't want to the dungeon armor piece you do want but I guess that is a pipe-dream...

Not to mention that chest and head pieces have the lowest drop rates in these end of expac dungeons AND only have a chance to drop from the last 2-3 chests.
What you are experiencing is (unfortunately) normal.

The chances for each set piece is equal if you look at the loot tables.

The problem is that there’s a lot of sets AND treasures and bosses’ loot contain accessories in their loot tables. Reducing chances to see the piece of gear you want even further.

I grinded this dungeon like a madman because it’s the only roman-like armor that is nice looking, with good colors and fur on shoulders.
I grinded so much I almost completed the sets for every job, I mostly wanted the tank gauntlets after obtaining the chest on the 2nd run...and it took me 25-30+ runs to see it drop ONCE. It was so annoying.

In Paglth’an, every set piece has a chance to drop twice : once on a boss, another on the chests you encounter near trashmobs.

As an example, the chest you open just before flying on dragons has a chance to drop the chest or leg pieces, then the last boss can drop them too. But again the issue is that there’s too many sets and the loot tables got so many accessories too.

Source : my experience + https://ffxiv.consolegameswiki.com/wiki/Paglth%27an

Everyone makes great points and offers good info, too. I have since taken a break for the most part from Paglth'an but plan to get back to it soon while more people are reaching endgame MSQ in anticipation of Endwalker's release. That said, I do wish that chestpieces and legpieces had more opportunities to be looted, but I also understand the high desirability having weight in those kind of decisions. With high desirability comes more folks entering the Paglth'an and expert roulette queues, meaning shorter queue times and consequently, happy players. At least, that was the logic I had put in place during these escapades.

Well, I've been farming Ala Mhigo literally all day today for some BLM gear and I haven't seen the pants (skirt) [I]a single time[/] I think I might go insane lmao

I know this is an old thread but god I have run this duty close to 20 times trying to get the Healing chest piece and I have not seen it drop once lol

there was that one guy who sent yoshida screenshots of two(?) retainers full with pieces of one single instance while the one piece he wanted was still missing.

yoshida didnt really gave an answer to it though if i remember correctly

Not really paglthan related, but you go through two layers of RNG depending on your party comp or content....the rng of the drop and the rng of your roll. I ran Aglaia around 25 times just to get the fending gloves and I wasn't rolling against anyone. Sometimes you're just really unlucky with RNG

I ran pag over 80 times for caster chest. Best part is I was paired with another caster the one run where it did drop and they let me have it out of pity.