RHGesus

Okay, I am noticing a huge problem in the RNG in this game. I boost my % to 40-60 on HQ gathers, I get one every 5 nodes (that's four gathers each node) on 25% chance I get one every 6-10 nodes.
Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10. now someone else is there, giving up.
I have noe decided that any crafting mat that requires RNGesus to smile on me is on my blacklist. I will just out level it and ignore it.

It’s a percentage of each try, not total.

If you do 10 nodes, your not gonna get 4 HQ, but you will get close to 400 HQ if you do a but short term will seem very broken high or low.

If it ain’t 100 consider it 0.

It’s 25% per hit so there’s still a 75% chance you’ll get nq each times. Just keep using skills, refresh with cordials if gathering. Skills like deep vigor grant 100% hq after chain 4. So extra hit nodes are good for that combined with qty increase you could get a guaranteed 3 from that for 100gp from a +2 hit node.

But rng will rng. Today I had a node 35% hq (with a 10 buff skill) I got all 4 hits hq. Next node had +60 hq. Only 1 hit of the 4 dropped hq. Lol

It seems that every game for the last 25 years buys the same RNG library, the all suck exactly the same. As Rhus said, <100 = 0. I am just annoyed that the only source of wool is 100% failure for me. I have killed tons of these sheep and still gotten exactly zero drops. </grumble>

RNG you always have a chance to roll low. Expect it become one with it and then raise above it. You got this.

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Originally Posted by SeedsOfChange

Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10.

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10 is not enough, by any means. You will normally need to kill about 100 goats for enough of their horns for glue, or 100 sheep for their wool, or 100 Diremites for the silk web, or 100 Tigers for their skins, or 100 Gyukis for their skins and on it goes.

What you might find very useful is to get your retainers up to level on quick exploration ventures, then send them out to get the materials for you. It will take about 2 weeks for the leveling, then you gear them, and they will bring back 10 or so wools every 2 hours. With 2 retainers over 8 hours you can get around 80 of the thing.

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

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Originally Posted by Rongway

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

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The amount of times I have repeated those words in various chats and discussions is mind-boggling. Randomness and confirmation bias, eh? Maybe we have too high expectations. :D

This is exactly how rng works.

Random does not mean you get a predictable pattern across a small sample size. Nor does it mean 97% is guaranteed to succeed or 1% is guaranteed to fail. It means random. You can predict the most likely outcome over time, but it's never guaranteed. You could get nothing from a 50% chance ten times in a row or succeed a 10% chance ten times in a row.

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Originally Posted by Liam_Harper

This is exactly how rng works.

Random does not mean you get a predictable pattern across a small sample size. Nor does it mean 97% is guaranteed to succeed or 1% is guaranteed to fail. It means random. You can predict the most likely outcome over time, but it's never guaranteed. You could get nothing from a 50% chance ten times in a row or succeed a 10% chance ten times in a row.

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And the only way to notice those is to gather a lot more than 10. Way more. The larger the sample, the closer it will get to the specified percentages. And by large I mean very large. In my time gathering various things, I've seen all the things Liam mentions and more. My advice? Don't take the percentage as gospel, be patient, be prepared to spend some time gathering. As simple as that.

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Originally Posted by SeedsOfChange

It seems that every game for the last 25 years buys the same RNG library, the all suck exactly the same. As Rhus said, <100 = 0. I am just annoyed that the only source of wool is 100% failure for me. I have killed tons of these sheep and still gotten exactly zero drops. </grumble>

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The best way to get HQ animal parts is to use retainers. You can send them on ventures to fetch specific animal parts provided they're high enough lvl for what you want. The higher lvl the retainer is and the better their gear is, the higher chance they have of bringing back HQ items. They will always bring back 10 of the item, but how many of those are HQ depends on luck, your retainer's lvl and their gear.

Btw only combat class retainers can fetch animal parts. Gatherer (miner, botanist, fisher) retainers cannot fetch them, but they can fetch other items relating to their gathering class.

I understand randomness just fine, that's the thing, by definition ALL pseudorandom number generators are flawed, most in games are critically flawed. It's been tested.
Confirmation bias works both ways. The trick is to count, not "feel" how you are doing.
It's easier to check with gathering nodes, you get an actual % and you just count how many you get.
2 times I was collecting HQ stuff from trees or bushes, with ~25% chance for HQ, by the I got 10, I had 150 of the NQ. Both times.
I don't know what the drop rate for stuff off "sheep" is, but 6-7 runs through the little flock outside town has yielded exactly zero drop of any kind.
...Okay, just looked on a site that says Ornery Karakul is supposed to drop 40% for fleece and a leather at a lower rate.
I know fanbois hate criticism, of any kind, of their fixation, but I assumed most grownups understood that game RNG is always bad, sometimes worse than others. WoW and EQ were literally famous for it.
It isn't random, the more "streakyness" a pseudorandom algorithm, the worse it feels to those getting bad rolls.
People actually study this kind of thing, write papers on it. I don't think any particular game has been mentioned, but I haven't read that stuff in a few years.

I was not really looking for an in depth discussion of probability, I was just bitter about yet another bar to progressing crafting by making me harvest from an extremely small population of critters that never drop anything. Possibly getting a tip on how to proceed, since killing doesn't seem to work... may have to look into using a retainer for that.

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Originally Posted by SeedsOfChange

I understand randomness just fine, that's the thing, by definition ALL pseudorandom number generators are flawed, most in games are critically flawed. It's been tested.
Confirmation bias works both ways. The trick is to count, not "feel" how you are doing.
It's easier to check with gathering nodes, you get an actual % and you just count how many you get.
2 times I was collecting HQ stuff from trees or bushes, with ~25% chance for HQ, by the I got 10, I had 150 of the NQ. Both times.
I don't know what the drop rate for stuff off "sheep" is, but 6-7 runs through the little flock outside town has yielded exactly zero drop of any kind.
...Okay, just looked on a site that says Ornery Karakul is supposed to drop 40% for fleece and a leather at a lower rate.
I know fanbois hate criticism, of any kind, of their fixation, but I assumed most grownups understood that game RNG is always bad, sometimes worse than others. WoW and EQ were literally famous for it.
It isn't random, the more "streakyness" a pseudorandom algorithm, the worse it feels to those getting bad rolls.
People actually study this kind of thing, write papers on it. I don't think any particular game has been mentioned, but I haven't read that stuff in a few years.

I was not really looking for an in depth discussion of probability, I was just bitter about yet another bar to progressing crafting by making me harvest from an extremely small population of critters that never drop anything. Possibly getting a tip on how to proceed, since killing doesn't seem to work... may have to look into using a retainer for that.

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I will ignore the whole "fanboi" (I am a fangirl btw) attempt to offend, it takes way more than that to push my buttons. I will also ignore your flawed generalisation "every pseudorandom algorithm is crap" as nonsense and not worth debating over because you clearly have no idea what you're on about. But since you want tips here's one for you:

At some point in the not too distant past I farmed fleece from those Karakuls. I used a level 80 dancer for instakills, I was farming around 2 hours, it was just outside the south gate of Camp Dragonhead. I managed to gather around 200 fleece from that.

Please note: Instakills, I optimised my path so I didn't have to wait for respawn, 200 fleece. I leave you to think how many Karakuls were downed. Whatever any website says about chance of dropping it's conjecture rather than official numbers. Hope this helps.

I will still suggest patience and a bit less attitude when replying.

Edit: Also consider that when Karakul drops fleece, it may drop one or it may drop more than 1 up to 7 or 9. I'd say the chance of getting fleece is pretty low. Otherwise I'd not be there for 2 hours as I was farming for my own use.