WTH going on with melds?

I just went through 160 LV VII materia to slot the 4th on 1 TOOL and none took. Did SE screw up the script from 7% chance to 0% chance? They may as well have. That's days & hrs wasted from grinding mats that i may as well have flushed down the toilet. :mad:

Sorry wrong place and i cannot delete it

I hope I can explain this mathematically for you, if it helps.

The equation of approximate probability of have at least one successful melding attempt with a 7% chance is equal to 1 - (1-p)^x, where 1-p is your odds of failure and x is your number of attempts.
Let's ask ourselves how many times must we attempt a meld in order to guarantee that one successful overmeld ? Our equation becomes 1 - (1 - .07)^x = .99. Now we need to find x, or the number of times needed to meld to guarantee a 99% chance of an overmeld within x number of tries. Reorder our equation to get .01 = .93^x reorder again to x = ln(.01)/ln(.93).

x = 63.56.

This means that you have a 99.00% chance of a successful overmeld within ~64 tries.

Now you said you tried 160 times. You had a chance of at least 1 chance of a successful overmeld of 99.99%, but not quite 100% chance. And as we know, if it's not 100%, then nothing is guaranteed in the world of crafting.

You have a 7% chance to meld. 7% no matter how many tries is still 7%.

Its rng at its finest.

You had never meld a crafter set dontcha.

Meld frustration does exist and it sucks.

Personally I'd advocate for a trait or if the system would add 1% chance for each failed meld

Welcome to FF14 RNG where anything under 100% might as well be 50% and any lower than that is subject to this game's super-advanced mind-reading Desire Sensor AI that has learned to simulate sadism and then perfected it beyond even human capacity.

Nobody believes me but I KNOW.

So you are my counterpart for inserting 2 5%er on the first try. Thank you for your sacrifice.

After I got to the dark crafting side of XIV, the first thing I learned is when you have 87% success rate, you are in the 13% side.

You were trying something with a 93% chance of failure, and you failed a bunch of times. Like, im sorry it was an extra long string of failure, but thats just life sometimes. And RNG. Life and RNG.

welcome to the rng world of ff14 :)

Few days ago i needed 12 tries to overmeld an item with 58% Chance.
I know it was a cheap materia, but to fail 11 times with a 58% chance... *facepalm :rolleyes:

And thats why i never overmeld to max stats. it's just not worth

Overmelding is designed to waste your gil. It's supposed to work that way.

Welcome to the ass end of the bell curve. It sucks here, don't it?

Don't pay any attention to nonsense like, "80% success might as well be 0%!" or whatever. The odds are the odds, and no matter how good the odds might be, there's always room for failure. It sucks that you had a bad run. I've had them too (and yes, JUST as bad). I've also overmelded materia at 7% success rate on the first try, twice in a row. It all averages out over time - though, there's always the chance it won't average out in your lifetime. :3

It will be nice the server "adjusting" success and failures in order to "force" the validity of percentage within a given number of attempts.

I mean, by pure rng on any single attempt, someone may never be successful (or never fail, but I guess he won't complain) and that's not a good thing.

But if server makes sure I can be successful 100 times out of 200,, when success rate is 50%, isn't game breaking and is not unfair.

Ahh the frustration of overmelding.

Now you're a real crafter.

I feel your pain. I just spent $40 million gil doing full pentamelds on everything. I feel like I got away cheap from last time I did this too. It's a huge gil sink but you end up making your money and then some if you craft enough.

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Originally Posted by ElazulHP

I feel your pain. I just spent $40 million gil doing full pentamelds on everything. I feel like I got away cheap from last time I did this too. It's a huge gil sink but you end up making your money and then some if you craft enough.

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I don't see why you'd pentameld at this point. It'd be like going from a 110% chance to HQ to a 120% chance to HQ. Maybe figuring the requirements will rise drastically next patch? But it's doubtful.

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Originally Posted by hydralus

I don't see why you'd pentameld at this point. It'd be like going from a 110% chance to HQ to a 120% chance to HQ. Maybe figuring the requirements will rise drastically next patch? But it's doubtful.

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Future proofing. We don't know yet what future recipes will requires for stats.

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Originally Posted by hydralus

I don't see why you'd pentameld at this point. It'd be like going from a 110% chance to HQ to a 120% chance to HQ. Maybe figuring the requirements will rise drastically next patch? But it's doubtful.

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Originally Posted by Thamorian

Future proofing. We don't know yet what future recipes will requires for stats.

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Yes, for future proofing. Right now it's a tad overkill. I can easily 100% HQ everything from NQ ingredients no problem right via macro. But I like that I can sit back, turn on my audio book or Netflix, and just relax and craft. So worth it to me.

just play some gotcha games i live in 1% world, bless the rng gods for wonderful mercy they show me

I've have amazing luck. In fact I was wondering if they tweaked it in 5.1 I had such good luck.

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Originally Posted by LalaRu

It will be nice the server "adjusting" success and failures in order to "force" the validity of percentage within a given number of attempts.

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Any manipulation of RNG, by definition, invalidates the percentage.

I don't disagree that some kind of pity system would be great, but make no mistake, any sort of pity system will always be in the favor of the player, as it only mitigates bad RNG. Good RNG is unaffected.

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Originally Posted by bezal

just play some gotcha games i live in 1% world, bless the rng gods for wonderful mercy they show me

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And when you fail the item is deleted!
( ´ﾟдﾟ｀)ｱﾁｬｰ

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Originally Posted by TaranTatsuuchi

And when you fail the item is deleted!
( ´ﾟдﾟ｀)ｱﾁｬｰ

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Ahh, melding in 1.0, good times....

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Originally Posted by Krojack

I've have amazing luck. In fact I was wondering if they tweaked it in 5.1 I had such good luck.

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RNGesus is going to smite you when you least suspect it.

Meanwhile the crafter overmelding with the intent to clear inventory space gets it on the first try.

It's just how these things go.