Baldur Blade and its drop rate?

Hi, Keemu here o/

I have ran "The Fractal Continuum" 16 times over 3 days trying to get the Dark Knight arms called "Baldur Blade". I have never seen it drop, while every other item on the loot table has dropped with the Red Mage and Samurai arms seemingly dropping way more out of the weapons then anything else.

Its really discouraging that I have to run the same dungeon so many times to try and get this weapon and I can't even know what the drop rate is... I honestly think being able to sell dungeon drops on Marketboard should be a thing at this point because I am really getting tired of farming a dungeon for an item for my ideal glamour and it never drops while every other item on the loot table does.

I bet there are some Red Mage or Samurai out there doing the same thing and never getting their drop while getting the Dark Knight weapon all the time(or maybe there is a harder drop rate on the Dark Knight weapon, but who knows because as far as I am aware there is no place to see the drop rate for an individual item, which is why I have assumed all items on the loot table has the same drop rate)

I will keep running the dungeons as Fractal and Neverreap are the only dungeon where I can get it, but I quit the game and don't look forward to next time I am logging in as all I do for the day is run the dungeon only to not get the weapon.

Even if the chest were guaranteed to drop one of 15 weapons, after 16 runs there's only a 2/3 probability that you've seen a specific weapon some time during those 16 runs. Given 32 runs, there's a 9/10 probability that you've seen a specific weapon some time during the 32 runs. Given 50 runs, a 97/100 probability that you've seen a specific weapon in those 50 runs. And even then, there's still that 3/100 chance that none of those 50 runs have dropped the weapon you want.

Random is random.

@Rongway I would be fine with random being random if there was other items from the loot table I often don't see, but every other item on the loot table I have seen drop outside of the one I am farming(at 20 runs now). The AST arms, MCH arms, Bard arms, Monk arms and SMN arms I have only seen drop once, but atleast they have dropped once! It makes no sense even if it is random that all other items are dropping but not this one.


EDIT: If I was any other class then DRK I would have the arms for my class by now. I think its so weird that it exclusively is the only one of the weapons that are not dropping from the 2 last coffers

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Originally Posted by Keemu

every other item on the loot table I have seen drop outside of the one I am farming(at 20 runs now) ... It makes no sense even if it is random that all other items are dropping but not this one.

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I just explained how it makes sense. If the probability is not 0% or 100%, there are no guarantees. It's normal for you not to have seen a specific item in that time. The system is working as intended.

Even if you ran it 100 times, there would still be 9/10,000 probability of not seeing the one item you want at all during those 100 runs. Yes, there's a very good chance that you would have seen the item you want by then (a 9,991/10,000 probability of seeing it at least once) but this is still not 100%, and if you didn't see the item you wanted after 100 runs we should still accept that the system is working as intended.

@Rangoway No its not, it would make sense if some items I were seeing and some items I were not, but all items other then 1 is not random. If 1 specific item is not dropping while every other item is then that is not random. If it was truly random and even chance for each item and not some items having lower or higher drop rate then an other item then 1 item not dropping while the rest does is obviously not random.

I just did the math for the drop rate(assuming its even for each item) and for the treasure coffer with 30 items its 6.6% that it drops and for the last boss's coffer where there are 37 items there is a 5.4% that it drops per run! Which makes me highly doubt that its an even % for every item in the coffer. I am convinced some items are higher and some are lower.

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Originally Posted by Keemu

@Rangoway No its not, it would make sense if some items I were seeing and some items I were not, but all items other then 1 is not random. If 1 specific item is not dropping while every other item is then that is not random. If it was truly random and even chance for each item and not some items having lower or higher drop rate then an other item then 1 item not dropping while the rest does is obviously not random.

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The system doesn't track what gear any given player has or hasn't seen. Even if you have a 1 in 15 chance of seeing a specific weapon each time you run the dungeon, the system doesn't say "well, he got Fists last time, let's bump that out of the loot list leaving a 1 in 14 chance". Every time you run is a separate instance of 1 in 15.

What you're describing is exactly what you'd expect some people to (unfortunately) encounter from a purely random loot list. Someone might see dog whistles with a 5% drop rate every 3 runs, others can farm 99 totems on 3 separate primals and never see a single drop. The same thing happened with Atma farming for the 2.0 relic when the drop rate was like 2%. Sometimes you'd get the drop fast, other times you'd need to clear 400 FATEs.

No matter how much you try to math it out or find order in chaos, RNG is RNG. You just have bum luck. If you really want this sword no matter what, maybe could limit yourself to a certain number of runs per day just to slow the burnout. Also when the level cap jumps to 80 I bet it will be easy (and fast!) to solo via undersized party.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keemu

1 item not dropping while the rest does is obviously not random.

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You don't seem to understand the concept of randomness.

If there is a 1 out of X probablity of some event happening, there is a (1 - (1/X)) probability that the event does not happen.

Let's assume there is a 1/15 chance of seeing a particular weapon on a given run. Then there is a 14/15 chance that you won't see the weapon on a given run. In two runs, the possible combinations of weapons dropped in run A and run B are 15 * 15, or 225 possible outcomes. In 15 of these outcomes, weapon A is the one you want. In 15 of these outcomes, weapon B is the one you want. Then we have to apply the Inclusion-Exclusion principle, because we're double counting the outcome where both A and B are the weapon you want, so subtract 1. So the probablitiy of seeing the weapon you want after two runs is 29/225. This happens to be (1 - (14/15)^2), the complement of the probability of seeing any weapon but the one you want.

So, if there are fifteen weapons each with an equal probability of dropping, there is a (1 - (14/15)^n) probability that you will see the weapon you want within a given set of n runs.

Now, given a high enough n, this value approaches, but does not reach 100%. And remember what I said earlier: if the probability is not 0% or 100% you cannot claim any guarantees.

Does it suck that you haven't seen the item you want after X runs? Sure. Is something wrong with the system? No. You just don't understand randomness.

Even if the one weapon you wanted had a 99% chance of dropping, there still exists a 1% chance that you will not see it after a given run. After 100 runs, there would be a 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% chance that you would see the item you want. But this still isn't 100%, and though it would be incredibly unlikely that you didn't see the item you wanted, it would still be possible.

lvl 68 drk weapon Molybdenum Longblade is just a Baldur blade reskin
And it really isnt much different in color

Just buy it from a vendor or MB

I went almost insane trying to get that weapon to drop. I stopped counting how many times I ran Fractal Continuum and Neverreap.

Are you doing it unsynced? Doing it that way with at least one friend will make it easier. It's not like you have to fight someone for the loot anyway, but generally doing that stuff unsynced even solo is way more laid back.

But unfortunately what needs to be said is that posting about it on the forums won't change the drop rate, so ultimately if you want it you have to keep doing the content. Or hope your retainer brings it to you, but I'm not sure if they can get those specific ones.

Ive run neverreap solo dozens of times for khloe books(it was the first lvl 60 dungeon i could complete alone and only one of the mechanics are truly annoying). Ive never counted, as i didnt want anything particular to drop aside from stuff i could desyn or the mini, but i would swear that the DRK sword dropped more commonly then maybe any other weapon in the place for me. Rong(and math) is right here, RNG is just doing its thing.

Edit update: Last night one of my retainers brought back a weapon from this place for a quick exploration. So they are in the loot pool for retainers too, its just a ridiculously big list that they draw from.

I wish they would add the loot system for leveling dungeons to lvl 50/60 and 70 dungeons. You would be guaranteed to get one item for your class each time you kill the endboss. For outdated content there is really no harm done, it is just for glamour purposes. They could even only allow the drop if you play it sync to improve queue times, probably better for the game as 1 guy trying to solo it for 50 times.
I have the glam myself for DRK, looks pretty good with hellhound set.

Agreeing with Keemuh, the way the drops go is rather idiotic. Claim it RNG via math or whatever, having to go through something like getting every one of the 14 other weapons 8-12 times (over 150 runs) and not seeing one very specific weapon drop is beyond the measure of luck or the math of statistics.

Give a token per run, at least, even if the weapon costs 150-200 tokens. you at least have the hope that with work you'll get it, rather than pray to luck for months with no real hope aside from leaving everything to chance. :p