White Mage - an analysis on the upcoming meta

Now, that the commotion regarding the changes has calmed down a bit, I'd like to look at the impact of the new mechanics on White Mage.

Confession's impact on single target throughput

I've seen some players complain about White Mage's potency on their base line heals compared to Astrologian, so I'd like to give some insight as to why that's not a problem.

Confession is simplified a 400 potency single target heal on a 15 second cooldown per target. Cure's baseline healing got buffed to 450 potency and Cure II got buffed to 700 potency.

Within 15 seconds, you can cast 6 Cures/Cure IIs, which amount to a total of 2700p/4200p respectively. We can expect 1 Confession stack on the first 5 Cures and another 0.2 stacks on the 6th cast.

1 Confession stack is worth 400 potency, while the 2 stacks are worth 500. That means, if we spam Cures/Cure IIs, we get 400 + 0.2 * 100 = 420 bonus healing for free every 15 seconds.

Now let's calculate the impact on a single Cure/Cure II, because we are not actually going to be spamming these spells non-stop: 3120p/4620p over 6 casts, which amounts to 520p/770p respectively.

So our spammable Cure has 520p now, making it stronger than AST's baseline heal.

Mana Management
The next complaint I've seen a lot is that Astrologian and Scholar gain access to our Shroud of Saints, while we do not get anything from them in return. Let's dispel that one as well.

Scholars have less mana sustain on Aetherflow, so they probably need to cross-class the ability as well as Astrologians who also lost their own refresh. That means that all healers have to take the mana talent, which they didn't need to do before. There's no imbalance here.

Now let's look at Assize and Thin Air, which are going to be White Mage's baseline mana tools.

Assize's cooldown got buffed to 60s down from 90s. The cooldown also gets passively reduced further by Cure/Cure II's critical heals and occassionally by the rather underwhelming Lily mechanic. If you are single-target healing, I can see Assize being on like a 45s cooldown compared to before. Even if you're dps'ing it's buffed, because the base cooldown went down.

Then there's Thin Air. The value of this spell is insane. Since it lasts only 12 seconds, we should combine it with Presence of Mind to get another full cast and maybe another Regen for free. In dungeons you can now spam Holy like there's no tomorrow and you still have the other mana tools to continue spamming while it's on cooldown.

Overall it sure looks like White Mages can afford to dps without it being punishing on their mana in Stormblood.

DPS
White Mages are basically getting a strength that Scholar was known for, which is sustained multi-target damage.

They now have two DoTs just like Scholar, but Aero III is actually AoE, which means, they can use Aero III into Holy spam on huge pulls. Scholars only have Shadowflare (60s cooldown instead of 30s) and nerfed potencies on their dot spread.

I'd even expect nerfs on Aero III somewhere down the line, because it's basically a 370p AoE spell that is not reduced beyond the first target.

Healer niches
All of that makes me think that White Mage's are going to be the strongest choice for dungeoneering, bringing strong sustained single-target healing, emergency cooldowns, aoe damage and cc to the table.

Scholars bring their usual damage reduction abilities and a strong tank cooldown with the new Faerie Gauge. In content that requires little to no healing, they still have their strong passive healing and can spend almost all of their GCDs on damage.

Astrologians are getting an emergency healing cooldown that's going to be great for Diurnal sect. Diurnal seems like the best healer for AoE healing, but the class still suffers from their defensive cards being unreliable due to the draw mechanic. Single target they can only compete with heavy sustained damage through the use of the cross-class Divine Seal. Nocturnal sect doesn't seem as good as taking a Scholar still, because they lack the big recovery tools and damage reductions.

Predicted impacts on the meta for Stormblood
I think Whitemages and Astrologians will be the strongest healers in raid content and I don't even think that Astro will go for Nocturnal sect either.

Divine Seal just produces insane value with Regen-like effects and Diurnal Astro will be no exception here. It also doesn't seem to work with shields.

Scholars' niche of bringing lots of damage reduction doesn't seem very useful, when you can just bring more casters, who are all receiving a raid cooldown that reduces magic damage.

Theres no chance for whm being in meta.

When you see the awesome buff to AST shield, you can't think of a bad move from SE.
They want literally AST (noct) replace SCH (with fairy nerf).
WHM is still very strong (even with the Lily ~failed, which is actually a pure bonus as Freecure).
If Lily mecanics is buffed, be sure WHM will have his spot for sure and we will assist to WHM / AST (noct) compo.

PS : Anyways, if Chain Stratagem multiply your critical hit (as demonstrated by some players : 20% x 20% = 25%), than Scholar is already at the 3rd healer position.

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Originally Posted by Sebazy

There's also the huge unknown that is exactly what the upcoming raid tier is going to bring.

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Good point to take into account.

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Originally Posted by Sanghelios

Theres no chance for whm being in meta.

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And thankfully you are wrong. It's a pretty safe assumption that plenty of abilities and values are yet to be tuned and tweaked. There's also the huge unknown that is exactly what the upcoming raid tier is going to bring. As things stand, it's most likely to either be AST/SCH or WHM/AST but you never know.

Nobody is going to bring Whm as it stands, I know I won't and my friends won't either.

In ffxi drg was never invited because they sucked, they got buffed and guess what, still auto declined and blocked, for 10+ years.

In this game it's going to be the same for Whm, we don't need medica anymore Astro has better and has many useful buffs. It's really not that hard to understand, the playerbase makes the meta as a whole, your input is like a grain of sand.

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Originally Posted by D00meriksen

Now, that the commotion regarding the changes has calmed down a bit, I'd like to look at the impact of the new mechanics on White Mage.

Confession's impact on single target throughput

*snippity snip*

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It is good to see someone look at the Stormblood White Mage with open eyes. It's tiresome to see all the hysteria about the changes. While I'm still scratching my head, because I don't see the designer's vision of the job, it's good to know we aren't DOA.

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Originally Posted by Adventica6

It's really not that hard to understand, the playerbase makes the meta as a whole, your input is like a grain of sand.

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Not really, the teams chasing world progression rankings make the meta, that filters down to the masses where a significant portion of the player base chooses to follow it often rather mindlessly.

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Originally Posted by Sebazy

Not really, the teams chasing world progression rankings make the meta, that filters down to the masses where a significant portion of the player base chooses to follow it often rather mindlessly.

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Most word first progression also use white mages in heavensward. That didn't change that white mage wasn't part of the meta.

White mages always had more bursty AoE dps compared to all the healers. They were arguably the best healer for speed running dungeons. White mage becomes more powerful the less amount of people they have to heal while the other two healers scale with more people on a group.

But the amount of white mage personal dps doesn't make up for +10% group damage or +20% crit chance that AST and SCH bring.

WHM is going to be good for dungeon running, but there's no way in this world is it even touching the raiding scene. SCH's utility, both their new fairy skills and their own damage utility is miles above anything a WHM could ever offer.

The fact is, WHMs base gameplay didn't change. All of its new heals are gated behind layers and layers of RNG that's also connected to only two of their heals, which raiding WHMs tries to make the LEAST use of.
So WHM stayed the same. The only heals you can rely on are the heals we already had in 3.0. This is not necessarily bad, but it also means that AST and SCH has advanced while WHM stayed behind. You're deciding between taking a healer stuck in 3.0, or healers that stepped up to 4.0 levels. The choice is obvious. AST and SCH just offers too much more over WHM.

Its not so much that sch offers stuff over whm. The two jobs were designed at the core to heal side by side and play off of each others weaknesses and supplement one another. Expecting them to be identical at this point makes no sense unless you just want 3 of the same healer with different clothes. In my eyes the issue is ast bullying its way in and being subpar at either fill in role initially and through buffs upon buffs, beginning to overshadow both jobs it was meant to pinch hit for.

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Originally Posted by Adventica6

Nobody is going to bring Whm as it stands, I know I won't and my friends won't either.

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This meta reminds me of a narrow minded sorority that only allows in certain people, and has a bunch of strict rules to stay in it. It's no wonder it doesn't interest me. And supposedly the community wishes more players would participate in endgame? All evidence to the contrary.

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Originally Posted by IndoX

Most word first progression also use white mages in heavensward. That didn't change that white mage wasn't part of the meta.

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Not sure what you're getting at, things have changed as HW's raid tiers (and the associated class buffs each patch) have progressed. In case you didn't follow the raid scene throughout HW:

For 3.0 and Gordias, the Meta was firmly WHM/SCH due to AST being woefully undertuned for savage. The most notable server progression capable team I saw running AST/SCH hit a wall with A3S and sadly melted down before the leader was willing to accept defeat and switch to WHM to get the job done.

AST was fixed by 3.2 and you saw a reasonable spread of all 3 healers. AST still had a bit of a stigma at this point and the earliest kills were still typically WHM/SCH, but this steadily faded away as the months went by and average iLVLs went up. The rise of logs and rankings saw AST's popularity start rising with it. Many progression healers including myself played both AST and WHM on a turn by turn basis with SCH still remaining the constant here.

Finally, Creator gave us the meta we have now due to the combination of it being the easiest raid tier this game has had yet, coupled with AST getting some very potent buffs. Needless to say, this time round the majority of world first progression teams were running AST/SCH, Elysium were the main ones that bucked the trend but even they promptly switched to AST/SCH after the first kill.

Thus WHM fell out of the meta. Nothing in it's kit offered much value in Creator and frankly, the bulk of this tier really felt like it was tuned around an AST/SCH team's cooldowns.

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Originally Posted by Gemina

This meta reminds me of a narrow minded sorority that only allows in certain people, and has a bunch of strict rules to stay in it. It's no wonder it doesn't interest me. And supposedly the community wishes more players would participate in endgame? All evidence to the contrary.

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Ironically and perhaps fortunately, a rather large proportion of the people shouting these views have somewhere between very little and no savage/coil experience. As your quote demonstrates, it almost seems that the more extreme their views, the less raid capable or experienced they actually are. It's interesting to have a browse over some of these people's achievements, mounts and logs.

I can promise you first hand that the actual people preparing to chase progression rankings are much more open minded and flexible. Whilst these forums do a decent job of reflecting the general feeling amongst the community at large, views can get a little OTT and thus it's always worthwhile taking such comments with a pinch of salt.

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Originally Posted by IndoX

Most word first progression also use white mages in heavensward. That didn't change that white mage wasn't part of the meta.

White mages always had more bursty AoE dps compared to all the healers. They were arguably the best healer for speed running dungeons. White mage becomes more powerful the less amount of people they have to heal while the other two healers scale with more people on a group.

But the amount of white mage personal dps doesn't make up for +10% group damage or +20% crit chance that AST and SCH bring.

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Correction. They used White Mage prior to 3.4, when Astro got buffed into the move. This tier saw a massive decline in White Mages at higher levels, which trickled down throughout raiders of all skill levels.

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Originally Posted by Sebazy

And thankfully you are wrong. It's a pretty safe assumption that plenty of abilities and values are yet to be tuned and tweaked. There's also the huge unknown that is exactly what the upcoming raid tier is going to bring. As things stand, it's most likely to either be AST/SCH or WHM/AST but you never know.

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How is it safe to assume? No assumptions are safe. Had their not been such a huge uproar, I doubt the devs would make any adjustments, if they do anyway. Despite a slight nerf in some areas, I sincerely doubt Scholar gets benched.

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Originally Posted by Bourne_Endeavor

How is it safe to assume? No assumptions are safe.

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Because some of the potency values shown in the tooltips are absolutely bonkers? ;)

I do agree that assumption is a risky business at the moment though, go back to HW or even NIN beforehand and SE clearly demonstrated a habit of being over cautious with new jobs to seemingly try and avoid disrupting things so to speak. The 3.4 buffs to AST seemed to suggest a more Blizzard style approach to getting the job played aka 'buff it till it's OP'.

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Originally Posted by Sebazy

Because some of the potency values shown in the tooltips are absolutely bonkers? ;)

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Hey, would be nice! I just... don't have much faith we'll see adjustments before release. The devs... haven't actually proven they balance healers well, xD

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Originally Posted by Sebazy

I can promise you first hand that the actual people preparing to chase progression rankings are much more open minded and flexible. Whilst these forums do a decent job of reflecting the general feeling amongst the community at large, views can get a little OTT and thus it's always worthwhile taking such comments with a pinch of salt.

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I'll agree with you that negative spin does tend to get out of hand on the forums, but the reason I generally support (and admittedly contribute to) critical discussion around 4.0 WHM in particular is the concern that what info SE has let slip thus far indicates a "wrong way" direction in WHM development. Sure, you get nutty people here and there threatening to drown baby chocobos if WHM isn't rescued from development hell, but I think that offering feedback at all stages can be valuable.

As far as raid situations go, they are both important as showcases of ultimate class balance and somewhat irrelevant to the fuzzier, but important-to-game-revenue bigger picture of "are subscribers having fun with overall daily gameplay?" If an important mechanic that basically defines new WHM end-game comes out as un-fun and unnecessary for the majority of daily content, some poor decisions will have been made.

A skilled, coordinated raid group can make almost anything work, especially depending on the encounter design. I can easily imagine a situation in which WHM could abuse PI to greatly alleviate heavy tank healing requirements and thus secure their spot at that point of progression, for example, but it would still be unfortunate if the WHM's toolkit were mostly irrelevant for the other hours spent on their weekly tome grind etc.

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Originally Posted by D00meriksen

We can expect 1 Confession stack on the first 5 Cures

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That's not how range/probability works.

The tooltip says "There's a 20% chance that party members are granted a Confession each time you heal their HP via Cure and Cure II".

Using your 5 cures example:

1st Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
2nd Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
3rd Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
4th Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
5th Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%

Just because you use Cure/Cure II 5 times doesn't mean it equates to 100%. It's still a 20% chance it procs. (See how much worse this actual skill is? Range is a horrible thing.)

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Originally Posted by D00meriksen

Now, that the commotion regarding the changes has calmed down a bit, I'd like to look at the impact of the new mechanics on White Mage.

Confession's impact on single target throughput

Within 15 seconds, you can cast 6 Cures/Cure IIs, which amount to a total of 2700p/4200p respectively. We can expect 1 Confession stack on the first 5 Cures and another 0.2 stacks on the 6th cast.

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Sure you can cast 6 Cure or Cure II, but why on earth would you? I will definitely be impressed if outgoing damage increases that dramatically in SB, but that seems very unlikely.

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Originally Posted by chesnaught

Sure you can cast 6 Cure or Cure II, but why on earth would you? I will definitely be impressed if outgoing damage increases that dramatically in SB, but that seems very unlikely.

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A single cast of cure has a 20% chance to proc the free 400 healing. So you get an average of 80 healing every cast.

I'm aware that this is napkin math. I am assuming a 12.5s cooldown on Plenary Indulgence, but I'm also ignoring getting more than 1 stack. The actual math is more complicated, but not necessary to demonstrate my point.

Also remember that stacks last for 30s and it states nowhere in the tooltip that the stacks are consumed on using Plenary Indulgence, meaning the potency for the free heal on tanks will stack up to 600 over the course of a fight and stay there.

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Originally Posted by Seraphyna

That's not how range/probability works.

The tooltip says "There's a 20% chance that party members are granted a Confession each time you heal their HP via Cure and Cure II".

Using your 5 cures example:

1st Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
2nd Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
3rd Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
4th Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%
5th Cure/CureII percent chance: 20%

Just because you use Cure/Cure II 5 times doesn't mean it equates to 100%. It's still a 20% chance it procs. (See how much worse this actual skill is? Range is a horrible thing.)

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Are you sure, you understand how probability works?
You have 5 20% chances to get a proc. The mathmetical expectation is one proc every 5 cures. It's not guaranteed, but it evens out, which is how all RNG works. Astros are not "bad", because they can draw Spear 10 times in a row either, because they know that the average outcome is going to be better than that.

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Are you sure, you understand how probability works?
You have 5 20% chances to get a proc. The mathmetical expectation is one proc every 5 cures. It's not guaranteed, but it evens out, which is how all RNG works. Astros are not "bad", because they can draw Spear 10 times in a row either, because they know that the average outcome is going to be better than that.

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Yeah I do know how it works. You're using percentages, not range/probability. Yes, the devs use percent marks but its NOT percent that they are using. It's range/probability. It will ALWAYS be 20% no matter how many times you cast it. Just because you use it 5 times doesn't mean 20+20+20+20+20 = 100. It's STILL 20% each cast.

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Originally Posted by D00meriksen

Also remember that stacks last for 30s and it states nowhere in the tooltip that the stacks are consumed on using Plenary Indulgence, meaning the potency for the free heal on tanks will stack up to 600 over the course of a fight and stay there.

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About that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCXgOdYfI8k At around 2:55 in the video, you can see when the WHM uses plenary indulgence, the stacks of confession were used up.

But before making anything concrete, we have to remember the the media build here was created in April and in the recent livestream, Yoshi P comfirms that cure 2 now has a 100 percent chance of procing the lilies now. So and as stated before many times, these were subject to change and now we get to see it.

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Originally Posted by Seraphyna

Yeah I do know how it works. You're using percentages, not range/probability. Yes, the devs use percent marks but its NOT percent that they are using. It's range/probability. It will ALWAYS be 20% no matter how many times you cast it. Just because you use it 5 times doesn't mean 20+20+20+20+20 = 100. It's STILL 20% each cast.

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Just to emphasise this point. Steady II + Hasty Touch has an 80% probability. I still have had more than a few instances where I failed 4-7 times in a row. The chances for that are literally 1/5 yet it happened seven times. I suppose it's something of a moot discussion though since Cure II now procs at 100%

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Originally Posted by Bourne_Endeavor

Just to emphasise this point. Steady II + Hasty Touch has an 80% probability. I still have had more than a few instances where I failed 4-7 times in a row. The chances for that are literally 1/5 yet it happened seven times. I suppose it's something of a moot discussion though since Cure II now procs at 100%

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There was a discussion in the crafting forum we had a while back about this point on how that happens:

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...-up-RNG/page13

Basically, the summary is that you have to take into account exactly how many people are using Hasty Touch. It's bound to happen to somebody...but it sucks when it's you.

Anyways, that's just a bit of info I thought I'd throw in here in regards to the RNG. The RNG in this game is actually very accurate.

i think you two posted on the wrong...thread, this...isn't crafting?

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Originally Posted by Saraphin

i think you two posted on the wrong...thread, this...isn't crafting?

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Crafting got brought up in relation to the RNG chance in Lilies. :p

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Originally Posted by Saraphin

i think you two posted on the wrong...thread, this...isn't crafting?

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Crafting is probably one of the best ways to show just how awful RNG can be! :-)

Lol... did I just see the word meta in an FFXIV forum?

This is... Ffxiv. They keep making an already easy game. Calm down.

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Originally Posted by IndoX

Most word first progression also use white mages in heavensward. That didn't change that white mage wasn't part of the meta.

But the amount of white mage personal dps doesn't make up for +10% group damage or +20% crit chance that AST and SCH bring.

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People keep saying this, but every set of numbers I run, or see other people run with any level of rigor, suggests it might be closer than we suspect.

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Originally Posted by D00meriksen

A single cast of cure has a 20% chance to proc the free 400 healing. So you get an average of 80 healing every cast.

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Yes, I know what you are trying to say, but like I said, you would, in a practical situation, never cast that many Cures. Thus your math is off because the averages you cited only work for large sample sizes. Sample sizes for Cure casts in an actual raid are going to be small if every HW + ARR raid is any indication.

Cure2 has a 100% chance to generate a lily.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...lily_with_100/

Lets just hope that WHM will be viable for end-game raid content. I for one think that WHM is the coolest out of the three healers.

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Originally Posted by Belthier

Cure2 has a 100% chance to generate a lily.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...lily_with_100/

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Ok? Most posts about math in here have been about Confession...

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Originally Posted by Meowneko

Lets just hope that WHM will be viable for end-game raid content. I for one think that WHM is the coolest out of the three healers.

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There's no doubt WHM will be viable. The doubt is whether WHM will be desired by groups.

WHM will have no problem healing any content in Stormblood... but neither will AST and SCH. So when it comes down to all three healers being equally capable of healing all content (and they are), then people start looking at what else those three healers offer besides healing (and dps). AST has Balance (20% more damage for the whole raid), SCH has Chain Strategem (20% more crit for the whole raid vs the boss), and WHM has... nothing.

People need to stop worrying about WHM being capable of healing the content. That was never an issue. WHM's could completely ignore Confession, Lilies and Plenary Indulgence and still heal all SB content without issue. The worry is that groups will generally look for the most advantageous comp, and WHM just doesn't compare to AST and SCH because they offer nothing that amplifies the entire raid's performance.

SE should really give WHM a higher level trait that makes Presence of Mind affect the whole group/raid. Just this small change would give WHM the capability of boosting raid performance, while also not adding a new button to press.

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Originally Posted by Nicodemus_Mercy

SE should really give WHM a higher level trait that makes Presence of Mind affect the whole group/raid. Just this small change would give WHM the capability of boost raid performance, while also not adding a new button to press.

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Not against the idea of giving WHMs raid synergy, but maybe don't tie it to a useful ability in such a way that DPS will demand its use to most benefit them and not your healing needs. Something separate is best.

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Originally Posted by LegoTechnic

Not against the idea of giving WHMs raid synergy, but maybe don't tie it to a useful ability in such a way that DPS will demand its use to most benefit them and not your healing needs. Something separate is best.

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I'm not opposed either way. I simply suggested it in that manner to avoid adding another button (not that WHM couldn't do with another button since they lost the most skills of all three healers). A separate aoe version of Presence of Mind would work just as well as raid utility.

Making PoM a raidwide aoe isn't a bad idea actually. It's unlikely to return to the glory days of FCOB (Massive amounts of SS were all but unavoidable that tier which greatly amplified PoM) and it's typically best used as a DPS cooldown these days anyhow.

I like.

Let's play the probability game for the confession mechanic:

Cure/Cure II have a 20% of giving a confession stack:

That means that if you cast 5 times Cure/Cure II the probability of NOT getting a confession stack is:

Casting 5 cure/cure II in a row

0.8^5*100 = 26.21% -> Probability of not getting a Confession Stack.
73.79% -> Probability of getting a Confession Stack

Casting 10 cure/cure II in a row

0.8^10*100 = 10.74% -> Probability of not getting a Confession Stack.
89,26% -> Probability of getting a Confession Stack

That's the thing. Even if you cast 10 Cures there's still more than 10% chance of you not getting a confession stack. It's really unreliable.

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Originally Posted by Meowneko

Lets just hope that WHM will be viable for end-game raid content. I for one think that WHM is the coolest out of the three healers.

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Viability is almost never the issue. The last time we had a serious debate about healer viability, AST was in its somewhat undertuned state circa 3.0 (and even then technically viable even in Savage, though far from preferable).

I don't think anyone here doubts that WHM will get the job done almost no matter what happens in 4.0; it's more about what will be fun and desirable to play.

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Originally Posted by Meowneko

Lets just hope that WHM will be viable for end-game raid content. I for one think that WHM is the coolest out of the three healers.

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They undoubtedly will be viable. Paladin was absolute trash in A12S due to its lack of magic mitigation yet it could clear it just fine. It simply put more work on the Warrior. Very doable though, and Hallowed Ground let the healers DPS more easily. Just definitely not ideal. It's more the lack of utility that gives people pause. Why bring a White Mage when they can't do anything better than Astro? As it stands currently, White Mage offers literally nothing to the raid. Even Monk now at least brings Mantra. That's the issue.

Nothing said in this thread changes the fact that lilies and especially confession mechanics are un-fun and don't bring anything new to WHM besides CD reduction.

For a job design to be good it needs four key things:
- Be engaging.
- Be fun.
- Be viable.
- Be desirable.

The fact that WHM is viable and desirable in a party composition doesn't make it fun or engaging to play. While all other jobs got new and exciting mechanics, WHMs got a confession stack to manage (anyone remember when they said that they wanted to reduce the emphasis on monitoring buff icons? Yet here we are, a buff icon to keep track on ALL party members!) and a lily mechanic that doesn't actively affect your gameplay strategies (most if not all WHMs will use their cooldown in the same time and manner they already did, lilies will just... be there).