Failure Rate of Steady Hand II buffed Hasty Touch

Hello fellow crafters,

Has anyone done a study on how close to 80% success rate SHII buffed HTs are? I feel that some synthesis I get 100% success and then on the next craft 40-50% success. It does not at all feel correct. Are there hidden multipliers or rate reductions that are applied because of missing good/excellent conditions?

Thank you.

You have to keep in mind that the 80% success rate is per action, and does not apply to overall success rate of a particular synthesis, or the rate throughout the crafter's career. So the answer to your question is the success rate is always 80%. The overall success rate will vary greatly from player to player.

However, the overall success rate can be evaluated, but I do not know what kind of conclusive data it would provide for you.

Simulated Data

Monday:
Synthesis 1: 10 HTs, 8 landed, 2 failed
Synthesis 2: 10 HTs, 7 landed, 3 failed

Tuesday:
Synthesis 1: 10 HTs, all landed
Synthesis 2: 10 HTs, all landed

Wednesday:
Synthesis 1: 10 HTs, 3 landed, 7 failed
Synthesis 2: 10 HTs, all landed

Total HTs = 60
Total failed HTs = 12
Total succeeded HTs = 48
% success rate = 80%

You're probably just experiencing Tue and Wed here :)
Trust me, Wed CAN happen more than you expect... But Tue also sneaks up on you sometimes.
What's assured is, Monday is the day we expected, but it rarely happens.

Thank you for your responses.

It seems like I get a lot of Wednesday when I put my HQ materials on the line. Maybe I should just take Reclaim on all of my crafters and if it goes sideways pop Reclaim and try again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sojourn

Thank you for your responses.

It seems like I get a lot of Wednesday when I put my HQ materials on the line. Maybe I should just take Reclaim on all of my crafters and if it goes sideways pop Reclaim and try again.

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Reclaim is also only 90% though... soooo you could still even land a wednesday with Reclaim, we all know it too well right ;)

We've all been there. And, yes it sucks. We come to boards here and cry/vent about from time to time. When not venting on the boards we just die a little inside in silence.

Ultimately, we offer up a pray or sacrifice to RNGesus.

Just keep working at your crafting skills, eventually, you will develop rotations strong enough to give you a pretty consistent chance of getting 100% even when your prayers go unheard.

I play GW2 a lot and they employ an economist to look over the economy which includes drop rates and RNG factors. There was one post he made on the forums when people were complaining about the RNG rates; someone was claiming they had opened 200 bags of loot and gotten far fewer of a type of drop than they thought they should. His response was that when he tests for RNG he pulls around 500,000 data sets to rule out streaks and to obtain a worthwhile percentage of actual data to infer results from. I'd imagine the devs here and other MMOs work on a similar scale to test RNG.

Compare that to the few dozen or few hundred a crafter might make note of in a night of crafting. Just food for thought about the importance of sample sizes; its a lot easier to see misleading results in smaller samples.

Good luck with your crafting.

I saw someone (I think on here) call it Hasty Fail instead of Hasty Touch and that seemed pretty accurate. I still use it but I have noticed it fails more than it used to before HW.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ziazis

Reclaim is also only 90% though... soooo you could still even land a wednesday with Reclaim, we all know it too well right ;)

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Such is endgame crafting. It's not as bad as it used to be with the favor farming and all that. It really sucked to have reclaim fail when it took a solid week of nothing but grinding to make one piece and then lose everything. That never bothered me as much as being part of the 1% club -- you know, when you have a 99% chance for HQ and get a NQ instead. LOL.

Maybe one day, someone will pick up this thread, and decided that they will never ever craft on Wednesdays...
"Caimie's data said Wednesdays are bad for crafting!"
LMAOOOO ;););)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Caimie_Tsukino

Maybe one day, someone will pick up this thread, and decided that they will never ever craft on Wednesdays...
"Caimie's data said Wednesdays are bad for crafting!"
LMAOOOO ;););)

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Supporting evidence that Wednesday is bad day for crafting. :)
The post was created on Thursday, January 7, 2016 talking about the night before.

This is giving me nightmares over all the crafting rumors of FFXI. People thought the most ridiculous things influenced your crafting; everything from what element the day was, the time of day, even what direction you were facing!

Thank god FFXIV doesn't have any silly thing like that. Or I hope not. ;-;