Astrologian Lore

It doesn't make sense (to me).

The Time/Space/Star Mage part, that makes perfect sense. It meshes very nicely with Sharlayan as it has thus far been presented to us (a nation of scholars, academics, scientists, and mages). That part is all very nicely quantifiable, observable, and logical (within the setting).

Its the Fate/Luck/Future-Seeing part that I cannot wrap my head around. At least, I can't wrap my head around this, because this class as we know it and play it comes from SHARLAYAN, a nation of Scholars, Academics, Scientists, and Mages, people who would outright dismiss fortune-telling as self-flattering nonsense by attention-craving mages.

The Lorebook tells us that Lewphon conducted a study of the ancient civilizations and their prophesying and (somehow) found conclusive evidence that there is measurable, quantifiable data to indicate it is not nonsense, but accurate in some form, at least when applied to the stars.

This is where my issue starts cropping up.

This ability to foresee events to come will have one of two primary outcomes of perspective for the players. It'll either damage the integrity of the existing lore and set a terrible precedent for all future events by establishing this as an infallible source of meta-knowledge, or this ability to foresee events is not accurate and thus not significant in the slightest, despite being presented to us in the questing for Astrologian as highly significant.

Let's look at some established lore events.

The Exodus of Colonial Sharlayan: If the Sharlayans have the ability to foresee the future, then the decision to abandon the colony was undoubtedly a result of seeing the encroaching doom of Eorzea.

Viewing this through the first perspective utterly destroys the integrity of the character of Louisoix. Prior to the Astrologian Class, Louisoix was presented to us as an idealistic, benevolent figure who strove to avert a massive catastrophe, but failed. However, a man of his years, of his experience, and from Sharlayan, would have to know, under this perspective, that the Astrologians are NEVER WRONG. So, knowing this, he chose to put the lives and careers of those nearest and dearest to him in jeopardy for... what? He knows he can't change what is to come. The Astrologians saw the Calamity, he can't stop it. Why try? He's a Sharlayan, an academic, a scholar, a scientist. 1+1=2. You can't make it add up to 3 no matter how much you WANT it to, or TRY to make it.

Viewing this through the second perspective, the Astrologians foresaw the destruction of Eorzea and/or Garlemald conquering Eorzea. Except... neither happened. So... why did they abandon the colony? Because they chose to put their faith in Astrologians? But if this is the standard of Astrologian Foresight, that it is fallible, why put any stock into it at all? Why would it be just a significant aspect of the job's lore?

The Isle of Val: As anyone who has completed the MSQ up to 2.5 knows, the Isle of Val, which was the home of the Students of Baldesion, a Sharlayan institution, was wiped off the face of the world with only -1- survivor.

Looking at this through the first perspective, we must ask why this was allowed to happen. The Astrologians would KNOW Val was doomed, along with everyone on it. They spared the Colony the Seventh Calamity, but decided to cut loose the Students of Baldesion? Did the Students of Baldesion have not even -1- Astrologian among their ranks? Did they decide to IGNORE what was going to happen?

Looking at this through the second perspective, we have to ask if the Astrologians even saw it in the stars to begin with. If they didn't, then why is this fortune-telling aspect of Astromancy so emphasized?

Final Thoughts: As far as the story goes, I do believe there is a place for a Fortune-Teller Class that attempts to divine the future, but I cannot validate it as part of a nation like Sharlayan, which should, "Know Better." The only way this can be validated as presented is if its some kind of fool-proof, 100% accurate art. As we see, that damages the integrity of the existing lore, and will call into question everything that happens in the future. If this process of seeing the future in the stars is NOT accurate, however, then why would the Sharlayans give any tangible measure of accreditation to it? It should be an idle curiosity at best, a topic of scorn at worst.

Why is this part of a Class from a nation of Scholars, Academics, Scientists, and Mages? Being able to, 'See the Future,' is a difficult enough variable to add to a narrative without putting it into a culture that would reject the notion.

While I've only done the basics of AST myself, the way I interpret the class is that the Astrologian is capable of foreseeing all futures and the probability of a given future coming to pass. While they can foresee all futures, whether a given future becomes the future is up in the air. (Like Alexander they can foresee all possibilities, but lack his "range" of sight and power to observe the one they want.) So the Sharlayan Astrologians don't know what is going to happen, but what what is likely to happen and base their decisions on that.

It is an accurate, but not precise, art.

Considering history is more or less immutable from Mide and Dayan being spat out in the past up until Alexander's defeat, though... it's kind of a moot point.

Thank you for the response, but that does just kind of prove the point a bit. We know, at the least, due to Alexander, that History is immutable up until Alexander's defeat at the least. So... how can there have been possible other futures for Astrologians to see? They'd not be possible. Alexander makes them impossible.

So either the Sharlayans knew what was going on and made bad choices, or Astrology is not a very good tool to determine futures events on due to a lack of precision and accuracy, and shouldn't have the kind of importance it does to the class lorewise as it seems to, from the class quests. But, the class quests DO put a strong emphasis on this whole, seeing the future bit. It is how you're directly introduced to the Class to begin with. The last Astrologian to hold the soul crystal you receive foresaw you getting it, and that was the whole premise behind them even making the trip of Eorzea to begin with. They just went back home immediately after you got the crystal.

As far as I gathered, AST seems more about giving people the knowledge and support to make their desired fate a reality. The future is not a thing set in stone, but that any number of things is possible in the future and AST helps the "desirable" one more likely to occur through their abilities. Like a Cause -> Effect thing, where they interpret the stars for clues to an Effect, and then try to enable the Cause.

That's just the way I've thought about it though. Take any lore scholar's word before mine.

Well, any thoughts are appreciated. I know a lot of my concern or issue is based in assumptions of Sharlayan since we have few hard facts about them. I've tried to devise a perspective on Sharlayan from what little we know. There is probably a lot more that hasn't been elaborated on that might make it more logical, but right now, the whole Fortune-Teller aspect to Astrologian strikes me as distinctly Anti-Sharlayan, but its directly -from- the Sharlayan School of Astrology as opposed to the Ishgardian School of Astrology.

As stated by Cilia, astrologian's fortune telling is not outright prophecy. As Leveva puts it, the fate is all written in the stars. How one reads and understands the message however, depends on the individual; one reading can be different than the others. At times, the reading isn't what most people will accept as good. Astrologian will not deny and try to change this outcome, as trying to change one's fate may only result in more disaster to the person. They can however, give advice to the person on how to face the fate and to make the best of what is given so they can finally attain their desirable and good fate.

But again, fortune telling is just that, fortune telling. A mistake or failure in reading the stars is not avoidable even among the best of astrologians. What happened to Isle of Val might be an example of how reading fate is not something as easy as flipping your palm. With the students were busy researching Ascians might also contribute to their downfall; so ingrained they were in their research they might not bother to scry their own fate.

As for the exodus, it's more about the Forum than the astrologians. The Forum and majority of Sharlayans hold the idea that they should not intervere in major world's affair, preferring to watch events unfold from a researcher's viewpoint. Astrologian's reading can just be used to justify this action; whether the outcome is true to the reading or not, they can use the data to improve astromancy and the best data can only be gained if the source is not intervened in any way. The fact that there's a faction of astrologians among the Forum can be more a reason.

I guess my question then is, if the Astrologian Fortune-Telling is not accurate to a degree where it could be relied on, why do the Sharlayans bother with it at all. Using the power of the Stars/Space/Time for healing/offensive/protective magic seems well within their purview, but Fortune-Telling by an unreliable method?

This seems to be approaching the gray between concrete, cite-able lore and acknowledgement of the fact that the game is using real-world themes as inspiration. In such a case, lore-wise, you can really only fall back on trying to understand the philosophies of the Sharlayans themselves. If something is indeed a science, you don't give up on it just because it's unreliable; especially if it's ingrained into your culture. You work with what you've got and make progress where you can. It's just a very long frontier.

In the real-world, we can scientifically show that many facets of the occult have no demonstrable validation of their own claims. But imagine if the opposite happened. We wouldn't give up on astrology any faster than we'd give up on psychology - another "soft science" that isn't always predictive or exact enough for some to respect. Hells, physics is one of the hardest sciences there is and you can't just walk up and ask where a feather's going to land if you drop it off of a skyscraper (without consuming some serious resources and still ending up with a margin of error).

tl;dr My meteorologist ain't all that reliable either, but I keep him around.

Another thing to consider is no one knows Alexander knows the exact path time is going to move on (up to a point) except Alexander, Mide and Dayan; no one knows that the future (to a point) is written in stone at all. To everyone, its mutable, the fate may be written, but we have the power to (try to) change it if we want.

Astrologians can "see" multiple, different paths; some right, some wrong, and try to find the "correct" path and move along it (whether it is really the best path is up for discussion). Sometimes that path they take they just ride along (do nothing), others they try to change it.

Basically...they don't actually know they can't do anything about the future. They can see that they can somewhat accurately predict it, or even change it (even though they really aren't) and so they continue to put resources and time into Astromancy.

And then there is that point beyond which the future is unwritten...perhaps their craft will only be strengthened by the new fate, or maybe it will fall apart completely (well, since AST is a job it won't, but still, food for thought)

The thing about dealing in possibilities is... it's hard. Like, real hard.

Let's say that, hypothetically, Alexander's temporal loop(s) makes everything that happens within it static. Nothing can change. The possibility of another future still exists; his actions simply reduced the probability of those other futures to 0%. Since Astrologian fortune-telling can only tell you what is most probable, given divining every possibility is borderline impossible, they only know the future that is most likely to happen - the one set in stone by Alexander's time loops. Even then, Astrologian fortune-telling can't predict the exact future - just give you a vague idea of what may happen.

We're beyond Alexander's time loops now, so it's no longer an issue anyway.

Why is it a Sharlayan art when they follow scientific methods? Well... it may not be precise, but it is accurate. It'll give you a general idea but not tell you exactly what is going to happen or when - it can tell you something like "Badness is coming soon," but not "The Isle of Val is going to be annihilated by the Ascians using a spell akin to Ultima on X day Y year," for instance.

Thank you for the responses everyone, that does help bring it all into perspective a bit more. On a personal level I still don't feel comfortable in it apparently playing as much of a role as it does in the Sharlayan decision making process (assuming it was consulted at all on events such as the Exodus of the Colony or the Isle of Val). But at least knowing its fallible from a lore-standpoint is more comforting. The idea of it being a science on the long-path to perfection is certainly more in-line with Sharlayan thematics as we've been exposed to them so far.

As I've posted before there is a faction of Sharlayan astrologians in the Forum and its leader actually holds an influential position there, influential enough to sway the Forum to ignore the growing of Sharlayan astromancy among the savages. I don't see any problem they employ astrologians in their decision making, it's not different than how some corporate hire an analyst to predict future trend in market.

As far as Alexander and fighting Fate goes, here's my take on it. One could definately see the possibilities of the future and from that make a choice as to what action to take to make your desired outcome a reality, a very powerful scryer though could anticipate people divining their fates and what actions they would take from that information, their future is not set in stone, but without action from outside the timeline, the choice they make will nevertheless be the same and thus they will take it. Thus, while things are not set in stone, you could say they are set in clay, the outcomes can be seen but can be changed if an outside force makes it so.

A bit of a related thought experiment I've worked on is that while we each make our own choices and are far from mindless automatons, if you had enough knowledge about the people in a given situation, you would be able to know exactly what choices they would make to a given stimulus, making a sort of mathematical fate. However, knowledge of such a fate would lead people to subvert it for the sake of individuality, a predictable choice that would lead to predictable choices, just different from the initial outcome.

On this topic, maybe... what about the Dragon Star Ishgardian astrologians use to predict the horde? Is that a real, measurable effect, or is Nidhogg just messing with Ishgard? Is it perhaps the dragons home star?

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Originally Posted by Grayve

Is that a real, measurable effect, or is Nidhogg just messing with Ishgard?

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Mentions of how the practice started made it sound like a pretty concrete correlation, at least.
The cause is up for debate.

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Originally Posted by Grayve

Is it perhaps the dragons home star?

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Until we get more information, that's my first suspect, as well. Two of the biggest mystery factors are that that Midgardsormr is alien to Hydaelyn and this thing in space correlates to their activity. More likely to be connected than not sans further data.

Doesn't the lore book have anything more to say on the matter?

In any case, while I can appreciate why the OP is asking about the alleged conflict between the study of astromancy and Sharlayan ideology, I feel the issue has been somewhat mis-interpreted.

Just as arcanima is to Eorzeans what geometry and applied mathematics are to Earthlings, I think of Eorzean astromancy as the fantasy equivalent of real-world astronomy.

Let's begin with the introduction to Sharlayan astromancy, given by Jannequinard:

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Originally Posted by Jannequinard

Astrologians of the Sharlayan school draw on the aether contained in the celestial bodies represented in the constellations by "unlocking" or "opening" the gate to heaven that constellation is correlated with. There is no actual gate... Think of it as more a portal to the soul. You are opening your mind, allowing for attunement with these distant bodies, much like one attunes with an aetheryte, but on a far grander scale.

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Originally Posted by Jannequinard

Just as there are seven realms of the underworld, so too are there seven realms of the firmament. Each of the first six represent one of the six basic elements — earth, ice, water, wind, lightning, and fire — the seventh and final heaven representing the elements' astral polarity.

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I believe the above underscores the basic "science" of astromancy. Just as arcanists study ways to harness and manipulate the aether of objects through arcane geometry, Sharlayan astrologians seek to attune to their aether to that of the stars, and subsequently learn ways of harnessing the attuned aether for magical effects.

Essentially, astromancy is no less valid a "science" to the Sharlayans as arcanima, conjury and thaumaturgy are — it's a form of aether manipulation that has measurable cause and effect, and that's why it's deemed worthy of study.

Now, in the case of astromancy, this cause-and-effect involves space-time, which Eorzeans understand simply as "fate".

Real-life astronomers apply mathematics, physics and chemistry to describe space-time, and effect of mass and gravity on the very fabric of reality. Massive objects like black holes can "bend" both time and space, and create really bizarre effects from our three-dimensional perspective. Theoretically, if we could fully understand the relationship between mass, time and space, time-travel and the folding of space itself would be possible. We would be the "masters" of the very fabric of all reality.

Now, here's the fun part: How would we translate real science to a fantasy setting like FFXIV's? We obviously won't be talking about space-time per se (that belongs in another genre!) but rather about the act of reading one's "fate". Given the Eorzean "fact" that it's possible to attune one's aether to the constellations, the next "logical" step would be to believe that the movement of the stars has some kind of effect on the mortals below.

Perhaps one day it would be possible to fully "predict" how the movement of stars affect mortals. But given that astromancy appears to be somewhat new to Eorzea (unlike arcanima, which has been around since at least the time of the Allagans in the Third Astral Era; and black and white magic, which has been around since the Fifth Astral Era), it's quite likely that the myriad possibilities haven't been fully mapped out yet, hence the current imprecision in fate-reading.

All in all, this is how I rationalise astromancy in the context of Eorzea's lore. Make of it what you will, but I do hope it helps to spur imagination on the topic. :)

It's worth noting that the Sharlayans don't really seem to understand what they're doing or what underpins their art all that well, given that Astromancy has an entire sect based on Dalamud which a) wasn't actually a moon and b) isn't even in orbit anymore - and yet, Nocturnal Sect remains something that objectively exists.

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Originally Posted by Leveva

You have come far since that fateful day our paths first crossed in the Black Shroud. And now, here we are, on the cusp of your attunement with the sixth heaven. Time truly waits for no man, does it? Before we set forth on this task, I wish to teach you of a second set of stars--the nocturnal sect. The nocturnal sect contains those celestial bodies ruled by the two moons. I say two, because since the dawn of astrology, disciples of our field have used Dalamud in their readings. Now, even after the false moon's fall, its position...or should I say, its absense, yet has influence over our fates. Whereas the sun and the diurnal stars represent the self, expression, the active--and the moon and the nocturnal stars represent the unconscious, the passive--Dalamud represents, and still does represent the uncontrollable. Its power has the ability to quicken the senses, as well as provide added protection from the unknown--things beneficial when pursuing one's fate.

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I think we also need to take into account that the Sharlayans have a much better perspective on Astrology than we do. Our only window into the science is by what we learn from the AST quests, as well as assorted blurbs from other NPCs. To us, Astrology may look to be a charlatan's practice - but we know that the Sharlayans are a culture of science and learning, and yet they take this so-called charlatan's practice very, very seriously. While it's possible that their serious consideration of Astrology stems from some cultural tradition that they simply haven't managed to root out yet, I'd say it's far more likely that there really is something to it that the Sharlayans see clearly, but we (with our limited view) do not.

So, the question isn't really, "Why do the Sharlayans take this ridiculous 'science' seriously," so much as it is, "What do the Sharlayans understand about Astrology that we do not?"

Also, I think that the weather prediction thing hits the nail right on the head. There are lots of sciences in the real world that are taken very seriously, even if they can only produce probabilities, rather than fast-and-hard facts.

Thanks to the Alexander storyline, we know that there are many possible futures, even if the past is pretty much rooted in stone. Even if the future you see may not necessarily be the one that comes to pass, it can still present useful clues, as well as bits of concrete useful data. For example, if an Astrologian looks to next Tuesday and discovers that Eorzea will be razed to the ground by the Garlians in an unspeakable orgy of blood and fire as the blackened skies drench the earth in a deluge not seen since the great flood - well, even if the WoL steps up and nips that Garlean problem in the bud, at least you'll know to pack an umbrella next Tuesday!

I think it may be more like Phlogiston theory or Lamarckian inheritance, in that Astromancy was a perfectly sound working theoretical framework to describe what's happening given all observable evidence but now there's a new set of evidence challenging it.

You read the cards, they tell you something vague. You go do the thing, and then what you read sort of comes true or you're in a position to make it happen, so the cards were right!

Just like real fortune-telling!

OR: Lord Rufin (the original) reads the cards, they say "Go to Eorzea, you will find a successor!" So he goes to Eorzea and happens to find you, who he names his successor because the cards said he'd find one on the trip and you just happen to fit the bill (or so he feels)!

This reeks of confirmation bias...

One can't deny the practical applications of astromancy, but the rest is kinda seedy if you ask me.

Well... I'd sooner take a bit of harmless card-reading than jump into a ravine to prove that I'm not a dragon-loving heretic. :p

The study of the stars is associated with fortune-reading, I guess because astronomy has close links to the planning of calendars since antiquity. To the average farmer, who just wants to know when is the best time to sow and harvest, an astronomer must have seemed like an all-powerful wizard who could see the future. Never mind the occasional gaps and misses — the smart astronomer would know how to word the fortune broadly enough to cover all possible bases.

I don't have the exact quote, but I believe it was Leveva who said the drawn cards don't actually do anything physically. They're just meant to spur the recipient into believing in its possibilities. That's a con job for sure. :D

Pardon me for any repeating what has been said already,
but it is worth noting what is said when learning the [Redraw] skill. The idea is that the stars, or your instrument, may be out of alignment. By returning a card to the deck, you are not ignoring/denying a potential future. Instead, you are saving this card for a future that has yet to come, and will draw upon its power when the time is right.

Likewise, the [Spread] skill is heavily weighted with the idea of patience, to wait until said card may be used best. This also adds to the idea of accuracy vs precision in card reading.
"one cannot influence the card the stars will see you draw" -Leveva

In regards to the [Nocturnal Sect] and [Diurnal Sect], it is not that the Sharlayans do not understand, its more like we do not understand. Each of these sect represents the ideas of the celestial bodies aligned with the sun and 2 moons respectively. We are not able to research the celestial bodies, sun, moon, and missing moon (and their effects and consequences) to such a depth as the Sharlayans who do nothing but research.:(

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Originally Posted by Konungarike

As far as I gathered, AST seems more about giving people the knowledge and support to make their desired fate a reality. The future is not a thing set in stone, but that any number of things is possible in the future and AST helps the "desirable" one more likely to occur through their abilities. Like a Cause -> Effect thing, where they interpret the stars for clues to an Effect, and then try to enable the Cause.

That's just the way I've thought about it though. Take any lore scholar's word before mine.

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This is exactly what I think, because this is, more or less, what tarot cards are used for irl. They can be used to predict the future, but also as a kind of consult for advice, different outcomes to a situation and how each outcome could be achieved, etc. It's never set in stone or a guarantee, but rather a recommendation of sorts. Meaning can also be vague, as you could interpret the cards as one thing and in actuality they turn out to signify an alternate (but related) meaning. Astrology and other methods of divination work the same way, for the most part.

(Take this from a real-world witch/diviner.)

I think, that was the big thing. The Sharlayan's focus was NOT on the prophesying power, but the more academic, magical aspects. That's why Leveva and others who value Sharlayan astrology were looked on as outsiders, and why the purview of the Astrologians in Ishgard was solely predictions.

Further, in Ishgard, they used it to predict dragon attacks. They were like an 'early warning' sign - if enough Astrologians saw "Oh crap, something bad incoming." they did what they could to alert people. It's the difference between a tornado dropping on top of you, and you getting the extra 10 minutes to get to your storm shelter. The Astrologian predictions are extremely short-range into the future - even the gameplay supports that.

From what it seems, Astrologians can't peer far into the future, and it sounds like there are fixed points. Things that will happen that can't be altered, but what CAN be changed is what happens between now and the next fixed point ( a la shuffling your current draw to pull another one. Per Leveva, the original draw will come to pass, you're just putting it off a little, and making a more desirable fate happen between now and then. )