36 weeks of Jumbo Cactpot playing the same numbers

Have never matched the last number. Ever. If I randomed every week and never matched, sure. But playing the exact same set of numbers and the last one with a 10% chance to winner winner chicken dinner, and not once has it matched? Eat. A. ______. I'll give you a hint. Think Pink Zucchini.

I ran Ultros and Tyhon around 1000 times for my Terra card. In short SE, ******** ****** in the ******* you ******* ******* ************** wetness ********** *********** with a bag of legos.

Or you can, you know, try another number.

I like lego.

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Originally Posted by MilesSaintboroguh

Or you can, you know, try another number.

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Oh look. Someone from Balmung without a brain who misses the point of things. That's totally a new thing.

I just hit the random button a few times and let it go.

Last number has matched for past 2 weeks.

Maybe you should stop playing the Lost numbers?

In a year of playing mini and jumbo cactpots, I earned a total 1 million from the mini, and only 20k from the jumbo in the same amount of time, or 50 times slower. Reaching the 1M from jumbo achievement is going to be entirely impossible within the lifetime of the game unless I win the 1-in-10,000 chance first prize jackpot or they make a huge adjustment to how much you get for losing and how often you can play.

I play the most important number in the entire universe: 1988. That's the year I was born. And it hasn't hit yet, but that's okay. Cause everytime I talk to the lady and I get Participation Reward I tell her she CAN GO FIND ME IN THE ALPS!

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Originally Posted by MilesSaintboroguh

Or you can, you know, try another number.

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That's when it'll hit. Always.

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Originally Posted by Seshayn

Have never matched the last number. Ever. If I randomed every week and never matched, sure. But playing the exact same set of numbers and the last one with a 10% chance to winner winner chicken dinner, and not once has it matched? Eat. A. ______. I'll give you a hint. Think Pink Zucchini.

I ran Ultros and Tyhon around 1000 times for my Terra card. In short SE, ******** ****** in the ******* you ******* ******* ************** wetness ********** *********** with a bag of legos.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MilesSaintboroguh

Or you can, you know, try another number.

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It does not matter, if you stick always to the same number or change it every week.

Out of 10.000 ppl playing the cackpot there are statistically 200 ppl who never won within the last 36 weeks (but also >400 who won it 7+ times).

http://imgur.com/VkwB6dc

They need to make it daily draws, if nothing else.

I would probably also change it to match against all 4 of your numbers, not just the last one(s). Same prizes as current.

Current:
0 match: 90%
1 match: 9%
2 match: 0.9%
3 match: 0.09%
Jackpot : 0.01%
Average payout: 459 per drawing
Average time to achievement: 41.9 years

Adjusted:
0 match: 65.61%
1 match: 29.16%
2 match: 4.86%
3 match: 0.36%
Jackpot : 0.01%
Average payout: 1303 per drawing
Average time to achievement: 2.1 years

Those odds, especially on a daily draw, are a lot more exciting (things HAPPEN instead of constantly nothing), and we can expect *some* people to get the achievement within the game's lifespan.

For comparison, mini cactpot pays out ~1500 on average per card (9.52% chance of having a 10k line on a given card, equal odds of a 3600, skewed based on what you choose to reveal and going for the biggest one you can't rule out.) Average time to achievement: 32 weeks.

Even with my suggested buffs (once per day, pay out on ANY match) it's still worth less than a single mini. Squeenix should have nothing to worry about allowing us to have this.


Edit:
Better(?) suggestion: Since mini still trumps it by so much, buff it further. Give it Mastermind-style matching, and increase the payout.

base pay: 100.
Every perfect match: x10 multiplier
Every soft match (wrong position): x5 multiplier.




I am lazy right now and this is a lot more math. If someone wants to do it and calculate the average payout please do.
Here's a template:

0 matches:
1x odds:

1 match:
5x odds:
10x odds:

2 match:
25x odds:
50x odds:
100x odds:

3 match:
125x odds:
250x odds:
500x odds:
1000x odds:

4 match:
625x odds:
1250x odds:
2500x odds:
Jackpot odds: 0.01%

Average payout:
Average time to achievement:


Also keep in mind, since repeats are allowed, the probabilities are different between random guesses and intentional ones. Choosing 4 different numbers over 4 of the same as your guess, for example, would significantly reduce your chances of a 0 when comparing against a random number, while increasing odds of more soft matches. This is a complex problem and any insight is appreciated. We may need to expand this template to have room for both random and each of the 5 types of spread you can pick.

Heh, OP, you must be taking this way too seriously if you are going to dismiss me simply because of the server I play on.

One of these days you'll win the grand prize OP, then sink with the realization that you should have played the real lottery because you used all of your luck.

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Originally Posted by Jamillion

One of these days you'll win the grand prize OP, then sink with the realization that you should have played the real lottery because you used all of your luck.

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Probability does not work that way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callback

Probability does not work that way.

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Jokes do though.

played the exact same number every single week since gold saucer patch
got last number correct 3 times so far (first hit took over half a year!!), never ever got 2 or more
... yep i love RNG

they really should remove the "from right" rule, thats just stupid

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Originally Posted by Seshayn

Oh look. Someone from Balmung without a brain who misses the point of things. That's totally a new thing.

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Point being that you misunderstand what probability means?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by deos

played the exact same number every single week since gold saucer patch
got last number correct 3 times so far (first hit took over half a year!!), never ever got 2 or more
... yep i love RNG

they really should remove the "from right" rule, thats just stupid

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Having seen someone play 0102, and the draw being 0107, I completely agree that the 'from the right' rule is a big fat middle finger to the players.

If you think that's bad, today I turned in my ticket to see that the winning number was 1033 while my number was 1043. But with the way the lottery works, I was rewarded a measly 2000 GP based on the last number only, forget the other two blatant matches.

http://i.imgur.com/otIqVaO.jpg

I've matched 3 numbers from the left once and 2 numbers from the middle twice. I really hate the method of jumbo Cactpot. I've gotten the one number to the right 3 times, 2 back to back. They really need to change the number matching system.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callback

I would probably also change it to match against all 4 of your numbers, not just the last one(s). Same prizes as current.
...
Better(?) suggestion: Since mini still trumps it by so much, buff it further. Give it Mastermind-style matching, and increase the payout.

base pay: 100.
Every perfect match: x10 multiplier
Every soft match (wrong position): x5 multiplier.

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I like your first suggestion better. The Mastermind-style is overly complicated when applied to a system that allows duplicates, and gives some numbers a better chance than others. I like the simpler suggestion that just counts the number of matches (by position).

Does your 1st digit match the drawn 1st digit? yes or no
Does your 2nd digit match the drawn 2nd digit? yes or no
Does your 3rd digit match the drawn 3rd digit? yes or no
Does your 4th digit match the drawn 4th digit? yes or no

Count the number of "yes" answers and that's how many matches you got. Just remove the current rule that you have to match the fourth digit before it will even look at the third and so on.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callback

Current:
0 match: 89%

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That's 90%

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niwashi

I like your first suggestion better. The Mastermind-style is overly complicated when applied to a system that allows duplicates, and gives some numbers a better chance than others. I like the simpler suggestion that just counts the number of matches (by position).

Does your 1st digit match the drawn 1st digit? yes or no
Does your 2nd digit match the drawn 2nd digit? yes or no
Does your 3rd digit match the drawn 3rd digit? yes or no
Does your 4th digit match the drawn 4th digit? yes or no

Count the number of "yes" answers and that's how many matches you got. Just remove the current rule that you have to match the fourth digit before it will even look at the third and so on.



That's 90%

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Typo.

But again, even with the change AND draws every day, it's still over 2 years average for the achievement. The mastermind-style matching helps to further increase average payout, and make it comparable to the mini. Mini trumps all as it stands.

I've been doing the same, only about 2 times have I matched the last number but I know my luck the one time I hit random the number I have been playing for months will come up.

You have a 3% chance to have never gotten the last number matched in 32 draws.

It's really not hard to believe.