Odds of getting G/E Proces in L58 and 2-Star L60 recipes

I tracked the occurance of Good/Excellent conditions on a Level 58 35 durability recipe (Adamantite Nugget) and a L60 2-Star 70 durability recipe (Adamantite Ingots).
I then did an experiment on a 2-Star Level 60 70 durability craft.

For Adamantite Nuggets, out of 665 applicable steps, I counted 94 Good or Excellent conditions.
For Adamantite Ingots, out of 336 applicable steps, I counted 29 Good or Excellent conditions. See update below.
Applicable steps excludes the last step.

The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L58 d35 recipe seems to be about 1 in 7 (14.14%).
The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.5 (8.63%). See update below.

Based on the sample sizes, the 93% (2 standard deviation) confidence interval is:

For L58: 14.14% +/- 2.45%
For L60 2-Star: 8.63% +/- 2.78%

I will try to get more samples to narrow the confidence interval. Feel free to submit your experiences.

Update: We did some more L60 2-Star, with 404 opportunities for G/E condition, and had 38 occur.
The percentage of occurrence in mats was about 9.43%, and the percentage in finished tools was 9.34%

Adding these samples to the previous once, we get:
The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.0 (9.05%).

Confidence Interval for L60 2-Star proc odds: 9.05% +/- 2.05%

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silverbane

The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.5 (8.63%).

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MMM wow I didn't think it was that much worse for two star. I should count off my goods/excellent's next week for comparison.

I'm almost surprised it is upwards of 8.5%. Most of my 2-star synths are between 28-30 steps, and I would have pegged the rate as 1/30 myself. However, I put a lot of stock in someone actually measuring the steps per good over long intervals. Get more samples. Maybe I'll post my own next time I make some 2-star stuff to add to yours.

Thank you so much for this data! It's good to have this data, and know what to expect in 2 star crafting!

Thumbs up for the initiative. A bigger sample size would be awesome if you have some time to kill but this is good to know.

I don't know if it's just me but does anyone else feel like the actual 2 star gear crafts have even less good and excellent procs than the 2 star submats crafts? Any way OP can maybe test those as well?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hennessy

I don't know if it's just me but does anyone else feel like the actual 2 star gear crafts have even less good and excellent procs than the 2 star submats crafts? Any way OP can maybe test those as well?

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We'll be crafting 2-Stars again this weekend (after the red scrip reset :)) so we'll try to remember to do more tracking, and specifically to track G/E occurrences in 2-star gear crafts separately from G/E occurrences in 2-star mat crafts. I'll update the thread accordingly.

"Science!" -- Thomas Dolby

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silverbane

We'll be crafting 2-Stars again this weekend (after the red scrip reset :)) so we'll try to remember to do more tracking, and specifically to track G/E occurrences in 2-star gear crafts separately from G/E occurrences in 2-star mat crafts. I'll update the thread accordingly.

"Science!" -- Thomas Dolby

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Haha nice, and thanks! I think what you're doing is great btw =)

I've updated the OP with additional data from further 2-star crafting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silverbane

I've updated the OP with additional data from further 2-star crafting.

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Ahh okay so they seem to be the same for 2 star mats and finished items. Thanks for your work! =)

Good and Excellent proc's for me tend to be very high. Of course 75% of them are shoe horned in to derail my rotation. I don't know if that's true at 60 2 star or not but I'm sure it is. Comfort zone, Inner Quiet, Steady Hand II, Waste Not. It's locked in to the rotation and more often than not, the goods will show up there. The amount of good conditions I get between SH II and Waste Not is insane and I'm sure it's the same for everyone else.

It would be interesting, though very difficult to conclude how many proc's come out, compared to how many come out usable.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ksenia

Good and Excellent proc's for me tend to be very high. Of course 75% of them are shoe horned in to derail my rotation. I don't know if that's true at 60 2 star or not but I'm sure it is. Comfort zone, Inner Quiet, Steady Hand II, Waste Not. It's locked in to the rotation and more often than not, the goods will show up there. The amount of good conditions I get between SH II and Waste Not is insane and I'm sure it's the same for everyone else.

It would be interesting, though very difficult to conclude how many proc's come out, compared to how many come out usable.

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it depends on what you say is "usable". I was making some astral birch lumber earlier and I had enough good procs to come out with 451 CP after finishing progress (using maker's mark, comfort zone, steady hand, piece-by-piece x3(because I was getting so many goods)), which let me then build up quality purely with basic touch (I didn't get any good conditions after the first 15 steps or so). To me, that was still usable goods because it let me stabilize the craft afterwards, but I know of many others that will call those "wasted goods".

At the lower levels, if you're getting that many good conditions, you can build up your inner quiet stacks rapidly especially if they happen during waste not (11 IQ stacks by step 10, it's happened to me before), and it's just a matter of knowing how to keep your craft steady whether you're grabbing the CP or mashing precise touch like a madman. At the low levels, it shouldn't come anywhere close to derailing your craft if you handle them correctly. It's a different story after you start hitting star-level crafts when maker's mark is in play.