Dungeon Roulette Bias

Specifically low level roulette.

Now I definitely understand that low level roulette wants to prioritize new players. That makes all the sense in the world. But I was a new player once, and I don't remember Tam Tara Deepcroft and Thousand Maws of Toto-rak being the only dungeons I EVER RAN, EVER.

Seriously. What's with these two specific dungeons? I've been doing a low level roulette every day for months to level my off jobs and I seem to be getting these two dungeons way more than I should.

I was actually thrilled yesterday to get a Haukke Manor (probably the third most common dungeon, but by an extreme margin).

Every time, there's someone in there for the first time. So I do get it. But just a little while ago I got Tam Tara in a party full of people on jobs. And so I have to conclude that nobody needed Tam Tara for story completion. From the look of their gear, Brayflox's Longstop would've been a much more appropriate dungeon to put us in.

I would seriously appreciate if SE could look into this. A dungeon roulette should be random. This does not feel random to me. Furthermore it doesn't help me learn my job when all I do is level 19 dungeons all the way up to level 50. I was in Stone Vigil the other day (manual queue) and I had to reread some of my cooldowns because I honestly couldn't remember what they did. I spend so much time in level 19 dungeons that actually having buttons to push was a new experience for me.

This is not how this is supposed to work.

Roulette is a RNG system that probably does indeed check for new player status too.

As far as I know.. RNG systems tend to pick the middle number sometimes, and often the highest number. Multiple times.

Expert and High level is no different. I've ran AK HM in expert 5 days in a row.

It may make some difference depending on what class you queue with, I tend to get more lowbie dungeons on tank than healer. Also consider that not every player has access to every dungeon, while players are much more likely to have the lower tier dungeons unlocked regardless of level. I know it's frustrating to see the same dungeon over and over again (I got consecutive Tam Tara's weeks in a row), at the worst you could give yourself a break from roulettes. Roulette is going to keep placing you in the lowest common denominator, which unfortunately often ends up being level 20 or so dungeons.

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Originally Posted by Seryl199

Roulette is going to keep placing you in the lowest common denominator, which unfortunately often ends up being level 20 or so dungeons.

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But then you'd think I'd get Sastasha and Copperbell Mines at least as often as Tam Tara. Nope. While I do occasionally get Sastasha (twice in the last 8 weeks), I haven't seen Copperbell Mines in over a month of these. It's either Tam Tara or Toto-rak.

I also do understand how random systems work. But this seems statistically very unlikely.

As for Expert Roulette. I tend to discount aberrations in random samplings there because there are only three dungeons to choose from. Low level roulette has significantly more than that. I don't run high level roulette enough to form an opinion on that one, though I suspect it's probably subject to a similar problem.

That is the very definition of random. Some people will roll the dice and get the same number 10 times in a row. If this didn't happen, then it wouldn't be completely random. It would be coded to make sure you didn't get repeats. That's the exact opposite of random.

I've been running low level roulette for a couple months and it's definately random. You'll see the lower level dungeons more just because there will always be a bigger pool of players for them.

As for statistics. You aren't even close to having the sample size to judge that.

Roulettes make no sense to me. I've had instances where I got Tam Tara Normal and all of us were over 30, but under 50. I've gotten AKHM too many times that I ragequit until a week or two ago. Seriously, getting 5 in is statistically improbable unless the RNG is messed up, which considering gear drops, probably is.

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Originally Posted by Amelia_Pond_Behemoth

Seriously, getting 5 in is statistically improbable unless the RNG is messed up, which considering gear drops, probably is.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Five, or fifty, or even 500 roulettes/gear drops are not enough to establish a 'statistically improbable 'occurrence.

It's not really random at all. The roulette checks which dungeon happens to need the specific classes the most and pair you with them. That's why you'll see so much Toto-rak, Tamtam, Qarn and Cutter's. I've also noticed the dungeons you get the most depend on your role.

Roulette was made to help people who queue without a full party find people to play with, even if it's old content. It's working as intended.

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Originally Posted by ShaneDawn

I've also noticed the dungeons you get the most depend on your role.

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I've seen this stated a few times and it never made any sense to me. Doesn't every dungeon need every role?

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Originally Posted by Callinon

I've seen this stated a few times and it never made any sense to me. Doesn't every dungeon need every role?

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Certain dungeons are run less and need more roles filled than others which get groups easily. If you play Healer in roulette it seems like you get Toto-Rak a lot. Tanks often seem to get Aurum Vale.

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Originally Posted by MXMoondoggie

If you play Healer in roulette it seems like you get Toto-Rak a lot. Tanks often seem to get Aurum Vale.

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I feel like I can confirm this; as I was leveling CNJ/WHM (my first class to 50) I noticed I got dropped in Toto Rak a lot. Only a few times did I luck out. I got Brayflox for one run and Haukke for two others. I suppose you pull something for your role others in the same role don't normally do. I had a PLD in my second Haukke run complain about always getting stuck there or in Aurum Vale.

The BLM just said, "At least it's not Toto Rak." I had to agree. I'd prefer Aurum Vale; at least that dungeon is... not Toto Rak.

You're not the only one, mate.

I got tam-tara and toto-rak so many times, sometimes I can't differentiate between them two...

Halfway through the dungeon:

"Wait. Is this toto-rak?"
"no, it's tam-tara."
"Oh ok. For some reason, I thought it was toto-rak."

I get Aurum Vales sometimes and Cutter's too. Dzamael not so much.

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Originally Posted by MXMoondoggie

Certain dungeons are run less and need more roles filled than others which get groups easily. If you play Healer in roulette it seems like you get Toto-Rak a lot. Tanks often seem to get Aurum Vale.

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Healers who get Toto-Rak more than they'd like (and same for tanks with AV) can probably thank all the other healers and tanks who get the dungeon from Duty Roulette and instantly abandon their party. An analogy would be, those dungeons are like an undesirable table at a restaurant, and DR is like the maitre 'd who tries to seat every party there first so they can get rid of it... it's always going to try and put you there first because the people who came before you turned it down.

I've had this same issue getting the same dungeons repeatedly. IMO it should be the highest level dungeon the lowest member of the party can run. If everyone is 50 then let rngesus decide.