Predict the population 6 months after PS3 release

If i'm still playing 6 months after PS3 release I'll bump this and we can all laugh at our wrong guesses or be amazed if someone nails it.

My guess 100k subs. I think this is pretty optimistic.

if its within the next year they put the game out and start charging (aka before class, transportation and the maps being redone) id say half of that would be generous.

If they can get all that done before then and make the game worthy, 100k+ is perfectly reasonable.

FFXI at it good years had 2mil but i say ffxiv would have a easy 100-500subs by 6months of ps3 release.

I'm hoping double the current population and if SE is smart they merge servers before the console release.

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Originally Posted by Zenaku

FFXI at it good years had 2mil but i say ffxiv would have a easy 100-500subs by 6months of ps3 release.

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I was under the impression FFXI never hit 1 million subs.

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png

That is what I reference for stats.

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Originally Posted by Zenaku

FFXI at it good years had 2mil

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.........

600k and climbing.

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Originally Posted by TonyMontana

I was under the impression FFXI never hit 1 million subs.

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png

That is what I reference for stats.

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It was a good 1-2years that it got 2mil subs they even had to put more mobs in the start areas because all the new players i still remember it :) i saw easy 20 new players around the noob areas and the dunes was full of new people partying.

Don't know why that did not say it o.o i remember them saying it on the POL.

*Gazes into my crystal ball...*

I see...

I seeeeeee.....

Lalafell...

Lalafell as far as the eye can see...! Millions of Lalafell!!!!!

My god...

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Originally Posted by Zenaku

FFXI at it good years had 2mil but i say ffxiv would have a easy 100-500subs by 6months of ps3 release.

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FFXI never had 2 mil subscribers. They announced that the game hosted 2 million active characters at one point, but as far as I know the number of players was at maximum around 500k, where it's remained fairly constant (which is rather impressive).

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Originally Posted by Dreamer

FFXI never had 2 mil subscribers. They announced that the game hosted 2 million active characters at one point, but as far as I know the number of players was at maximum around 500k, where it's remained fairly constant (which is rather impressive).

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Oh i see i guess that what that was it was a long time ago i thought it was 2mil subs.

An Online Game can survive if population is directed to the same places.

Like PSO PSU and MH3 there have always been only a few servers but because the way the games are set up there's never lack of people to play with and the small hubs seemed always lively.

I guess the big issue is that will SE try to combat sudden rush of new players (though it can't possibly be as large as in the release weeks!) by adding new servers or will they prolong the release long enough to deal with the current server issues?

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Originally Posted by Dreamer

FFXI never had 2 mil subscribers. They announced that the game hosted 2 million active characters at one point, but as far as I know the number of players was at maximum around 500k, where it's remained fairly constant (which is rather impressive).

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700k~ actually, of which WoW took a sizeable chunk. It then stabilized at around 500k.

i say there wont be /sea all added by then so no one will know if they were right

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Originally Posted by slipmac

i say there wont be /sea all added by then so no one will know if they were right

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You are most likely right but its still fun to guess.

Population will be 0. Thats my guess, see you in a year or two!.

FFXI capped at around 600k subs.

If they fix the game, a few more patches like 1.18, I predict between 400-500k subs, if they have a bad ps3 launch I predict 0 subs, I assume they will scrap the project if ps3 does bring in several 100 thousands players.

Want it to be so popular, at the point when I log in, I will have to wait in line.
Atleast then I'll know people are playing.

Unless there are DRASTIC changes... and if for some reason they do not offer a subscription method via the PSN store, this game will be DOA on the PS3 and will most likely get scrapped.

Population guess? <100k

It all depends on the next few patches where there rebuilding the game, if these patches are a success then come ps3 launch it could be up to 500k-600k subs, if they dont work out it could mean PS3 launch will flop and they will pull the plug

This is assuming that there is a PS3 release. My guess would be the population would be the same as it is now. Only the bored and the die-hards would give it a go. The stigma associated with this game is massive amongst the mmo-going population.

It's been almost a year and progress on the rebuild seems painfully slow. I wouldn't be surprised if people just gave this game up for dead and are just waiting for Final Fantasy XV.

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Originally Posted by Valkyrienne

This is assuming that there is a PS3 release. My guess would be the population would be the same as it is now. Only the bored and the die-hards would give it a go. The stigma associated with this game is massive amongst the mmo-going population.

It's been almost a year and progress on the rebuild seems painfully slow. I wouldn't be surprised if people just gave this game up for dead and are just waiting for Final Fantasy XV.

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There will be a ps3 release, SE will not pull the plug because there is the the possibility that the ps3 release will save the game. All they need is re-reviews after all the rebuilds are complete, anyone that chooses to play a MMO by an old review bo be honest shouldnt be playing MMOs because they change that much.

Also you seem to be forgetting that it took them 5 years for the release version of the game, by that maths the no the rebuild isnt painfully slow as you put it, Also they have only been rebuilding the game since Jan/Feb when the new dev team came in so we have got alot in 5 months, they werent reduilding anything under Tanaka.

FINAL FANTASY XI never had near 2 million subscriptions. At best it had upwards of 650,000. You're delusional if you think otherwise, go ahead and do some research.

I believe XI only ever actually crossed the "1 million" characters made milestone and later "2 million" characters made milestone. But players created doesn't equal active subscriptions.

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This is assuming that there is a PS3 release.

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Well said. If they weren't basically forced to release a PS3 version for the chance for positive re-reviews, from the standpoint of longevity a PS3 port already makes no sense any more. Back in 2010, barely. Now, with a new generation of gaming consoles around the corner, it doesn't sound too smart to adjust your MMO to what is basically a legacy console.

I really hope they can pull off a player base that's at least solid enough to warrant further development. But TERA and Guild Wars, for all their horrible art style, look interesting and "new", and it's unnecessary to mention that the Star Wars Universe provides a pretty good setting for a mass-marketed MMO also (e.g., http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOvbv-LkK6w ).

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Originally Posted by Rinsui

Well said. If they weren't basically forced to release a PS3 version for the chance for positive re-reviews, from the standpoint of longevity a PS3 port already makes no sense any more. Back in 2010, barely. Now, with a new generation of gaming consoles around the corner, it doesn't sound too smart to adjust your MMO to what is basically a legacy console.

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The only next gen console that has been announced is the WiiU, PS4 and Xbox 720 will be debut at E3 2012, and after that they will probably be released in 2014 or 2015, The reason the WiiU is being released next year is because it is so far behind the 360 and PS3, the only thing the Wii had over them at release was a motion controller, it was far inferior in everything else, now the PS3 and 360 have motion controllers the Wii has nothing except classic nintendo games.

They therefore chose to release a new console that was closer in specifications to the 360 and PS3, at e3 they even said that 3rd party games were rarely on the Wii was because it wasnt powerful enough to port them to it, which Ninetendo knew was a mistake, the Wii is now loosing money because it has nothing over the compatition.

So they arent "round the corner" there is still a few years for the actual next gen consoles, I could see Nintendo releasing a new one around when the PS4 and 720 are released.

By the time they eventually release this game on PS3 nobody will care any more. Square think they have all the time in the world, they clearly don't understand the industry they are working in. People will not wait for this game forever when there are more exciting games that will be released. It's not even a 100% certainty the game will release on PS3 at all. I also expect the next generation of consoles to be announced before this game even has a release date. FF XIV is old news now and will be old news when it releases on PS3. Don't get me wrong I really want this game on PS3 I just think it will come to late for it to ever be very successful. They don't even talk about the games progress. We have seen no footage of it running on PS3 not even a single screenshot. It's hard to believe it really exists. For all we know they aren't even continuing to develop it at the moment.

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Originally Posted by Akira_Tenshi

By the time they eventually release this game on PS3 nobody will care any more. Square think they have all the time in the world, they clearly don't understand the industry they are working in. People will not wait for this game forever when there are more exciting games that will be released. It's not even a 100% certainty the game will release on PS3 at all. I also expect the next generation of consoles to be announced before this game even has a release date. FF XIV is old news now and will be old news when it releases on PS3. Don't get me wrong I really want this game on PS3 I just think it will come to late for it to ever be very successful. They don't even talk about the games progress. We have seen no footage of it running on PS3 not even a single screenshot. It's hard to believe it really exists. For all we know they aren't even continuing to develop it at the moment.

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Just because we havent seen anything does not mean they have pulled the plug, they will tell us if that happens also it would be stupid not to release it on ps3 because that is the only chance for the game to succed now, if they had pulled the plug on the ps3 release they will have taken the game offline by now, they NEED the ps3 release to make this game a success. I can gurentee that it will be out on ps3 next year at the latest

80-100k subs

Well the PC version sold 650K copies, I imagine the PS3 version well sell at least 500K copies, it could be a lot more or a lot less though. Of that only so many people will actually stay subscribed longer than the 30 days. I'd say 250-400K active subscriptions within PS3 release. We'll have to wait and see.

I often show my friends footage of the game and they are impressed. FFXIV is quite an impressive game. Once content is under wraps theres only a few things to "patch up"
So as far as subs go I'd say they can double by PS3 and even more 6 months in.
At ps3 more people will be willing to give it another try, as well as being able to run it in the first place.
Right now I cant even play since my computer is so crappy, so when ps3 comes I'll definitely be on top of this lol

i feel like when the PC was first released, the name "Final Fantasy" will sell the game. only until we found out that it wasn't such a good game, the subs dropped dramatically.

for the ps3 to be released, not only do they need a good product, but they need good reviews. unless they can rebuild their reputation before ps3 is released, no one is going to spend 60 bucks cause it has Final Fantasy in the title.

im optimistic that SE can turn this around and people will come back to ffxiv. im not calling for a server merge but 2k per server on a peak times can be very nice so hopefully subs will hit around 200k-300k. hopefully more than 500k.

Yup, i remember 11 being so busy that there were never enough Lizards to go round.

So many doom Sayers in here, I think this game will get 2 mil subscriptions. It's catering to a much wider audience than FFXI, so there will be more people interested in the game. Casuals will save this game

And to everyone who says this game has a bad rap and will never recover from that I have a few arguments against that...

1: unless you're a die hard Final fantasy fan, you probably haven't even heard of this game.
2: People have a short memory span
3: SE has done 0 advertising for FFXIV
4: You have no idea what this game will be like by the time the PS3 version gets released
5: 99.9999% of negative comments I've heard about this game are from the forums
6: FFXIV is actually a next gen MMO that really doesn't have anything like it coming out on the markets
7: In a couple years, the amount of people with computers that can run this game will increase exponentially

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Originally Posted by Alzelia

So many doom Sayers in here, I think this game will get 2 mil subscriptions. It's catering to a much wider audience than FFXI, so there will be more people interested in the game. Casuals will save this game

And to everyone who says this game has a bad rap and will never recover from that I have a few arguments against that...

1: unless you're a die hard Final fantasy fan, you probably haven't even heard of this game.
2: People have a short memory span
3: SE has done 0 advertising for FFXIV
4: You have no idea what this game will be like by the time the PS3 version gets released
5: 99.9999% of negative comments I've heard about this game are from the forums
6: FFXIV is actually a next gen MMO that really doesn't have anything like it coming out on the markets
7: In a couple years, the amount of people with computers that can run this game will increase exponentially

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Cool lets all hope you are right.

Of course there will be a PS3 launch. It's a PS3 game.
as far as WiiU... Developers are hesitant about jumping on new systems pre-launch (Can you say 3DS debacle)
PS3 owners are currently the largest Final fantasy demographic in the world
Final fantasy XIII (13) did almost 2 million on PS3 in the first week of sales... IN JAPAN ALONE
The PC version of this game (FFXIV) did half a mill with well above average system requirements.
Famitsu will give the PS3 version of this game a 35+ score which will prompt other publications to do the same.
The game will do around 1 million in sales world wide (Which could have been a lot higher with a successful PC launch, but alas, one cannot change the past)
Of those 1 million new players, initially, less than half will stay past the free month. That is the nature of pay 2 play games. If Yoshi P continues pushing the game in the right direction, those numbers will go up slowly over time

LOL. When the FFXIV will release on PS3 it'll sell a million minimum in Japan alone.

Go on with the doom and gloom.

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Originally Posted by Rydin

Of course there will be a PS3 launch. It's a PS3 game.
as far as WiiU... Developers are hesitant about jumping on new systems pre-launch (Can you say 3DS debacle)
PS3 owners are currently the largest Final fantasy demographic in the world
Final fantasy XIII (13) did almost 2 million on PS3 in the first week of sales... IN JAPAN ALONE
The PC version of this game (FFXIV) did half a mill with well above average system requirements.
Famitsu will give the PS3 version of this game a 35+ score which will prompt other publications to do the same.
The game will do around 1 million in sales world wide (Which could have been a lot higher with a successful PC launch, but alas, one cannot change the past)
Of those 1 million new players, initially, less than half will stay past the free month. That is the nature of pay 2 play games. If Yoshi P continues pushing the game in the right direction, those numbers will go up slowly over time

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Unfortunatly this is highly unlikely, yes FFXIII sold well, however because 14 is a MMO, it will sell alot less than that, just because people like final fantasy doesnt mean they will buy it, FFXI got 650k subscriptions at its peak, and that is a final fantasy game, explain that one if your so sure.

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Originally Posted by Abriael

LOL. When the FFXIV will release on PS3 it'll sell a million minimum in Japan alone.

Go on with the doom and gloom.

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ya your right i think is why FFXI stay up to much due to japan alone having great sell on SE games.

Ads for FFXIV in japan was everywhere Computer shops had FFXIV running and even had a sign saying this Computer would run ffxiv at: This setting so yes your right FFXIV would sell big in Japan.

Now why can't they do that here? they never do that much ad for any of there online games -.- which they only have 3 now lol/

They used to run television spots for FFXI in America in late 2003/2004 before Promathia was announced/released. They still run online advertisements for it everytime they release a new collection edition/expansion so I don't understand why people keep saying they never advertise in America, they obviously don't advertise it as much anymore but they used to when it had just launched.

They also advertised the hell out of FFXIII with whatever song they had in it, I'm sure they will advertise FFXIV when they launch it on PS3 too. As for how many players, I don't know or care as long as they continue to update the game regularly which doesn't require that many subs (certainly it does not require a million subs, or even 500k). In my opinion the game would be better served if it doesn't cater to certain segments of the MMO community, but that's just me being selfish not wanting to share a server with them obviously it doesn't speak to SE's goals.

If you want to see a company that doesn't support/advertise their MMO's look at Sony. This is not Sony, so as long as the population doesn't increase at all after PS3 release (hard to imagine that would happen) I'm not too worried about them supporting/pushing the game.

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Originally Posted by Alzelia

So many doom Sayers in here, I think this game will get 2 mil subscriptions. It's catering to a much wider audience than FFXI, so there will be more people interested in the game. Casuals will save this game

And to everyone who says this game has a bad rap and will never recover from that I have a few arguments against that...

1: unless you're a die hard Final fantasy fan, you probably haven't even heard of this game.
2: People have a short memory span
3: SE has done 0 advertising for FFXIV
4: You have no idea what this game will be like by the time the PS3 version gets released
5: 99.9999% of negative comments I've heard about this game are from the forums
6: FFXIV is actually a next gen MMO that really doesn't have anything like it coming out on the markets
7: In a couple years, the amount of people with computers that can run this game will increase exponentially

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Your point #6 intrigues me, what do you mean by, next gen MMO, whats in FFXIV that you cant find in wow/rift/eq2/lotor....

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Originally Posted by Murugan

They used to run television spots for FFXI in America in late 2003/2004 before Promathia was announced/released. They still run online advertisements for it everytime they release a new collection edition/expansion so I don't understand why people keep saying they never advertise in America, they obviously don't advertise it as much anymore but they used to when it had just launched.

They also advertised the hell out of FFXIII with whatever song they had in it, I'm sure they will advertise FFXIV when they launch it on PS3 too. As for how many players, I don't know or care as long as they continue to update the game regularly which doesn't require that many subs (certainly it does not require a million subs, or even 500k). In my opinion the game would be better served if it doesn't cater to certain segments of the MMO community, but that's just me being selfish not wanting to share a server with them obviously it doesn't speak to SE's goals.

If you want to see a company that doesn't support/advertise their MMO's look at Sony. This is not Sony, so as long as the population doesn't increase at all after PS3 release (hard to imagine that would happen) I'm not too worried about them supporting/pushing the game.

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Because 1 Tv ad back when wow was not even main stream mean noting to people. From that day on i have not saw one tv ad for ffxi and even the small of amount they had for ffxi in gamestop was noting like what blizzard and other company does.