Crafting/Gathering Percentages

I'm sure this has been brought up before and will be again so i'll start off by asking:

Has Squenix posted or commented in any way, shape, or form on how messed up their in-game percentages are?

If so, if someone could link me to where they have commented it would be greatly appreciated.

If not on the other hand, aside from a bug report that will likely be thrown out as they dont see an issue with it yadda yadda... Is there any way to get anything done about it? Anyone who has played the game to any extent should be able to acknowledge there is a problem that needs addressing I am just unsure how we as players may go about getting it resolved.

I would like this to serve as a thread for civil conversation on the matter hopefully not to get off-track by bickering over small things. Thank you :)

SE has never acknowledged how screwed up the percentages are and considering their asinine response when asked for the ability to view the % of our combat stats I kind of don't want them to.

It works within the parameters

Are you sure it is bugged? Like failed at 100% success chance?

Not so bad as to have failed with a 100% chance. But failing at 98% chance 5/7 times? failing 7/8 times with an 80% chance followed by failing byregots with a 90% chance... gathering with a 97% chance failing all 4, then 3, then 4, then 2... bringing a grand total of 3/16 gathered successfully with 97% chance...

Of course these are very isolated occurrences to be THAT bad sure... but i've done plenty of counting on my own while lvling gathering in bouts of 10, 100 and 1000 samples at a time to see just how many i fail and they are never anywhere near the success rate it gives.

Honestly, speaking from a technical standpoint alone... I would say their rng mechanic is buggy. Or at least i assume that is how their percentages come to the final result of success/fail. Roll a die if it is above a certain number you succeed etc...

To further support my thoughts that it is not just the crafting/gathering (though that is clearly the most noticeable), In looking at rolls in dungeons it always seems as though rolls are lower, in the sub-40's area. Even among a group of 8 members it is who wins the highest, low roll... I dont have specific statistics to back that up but just a personal observation. Of course that is not to say there are NO high rolls, just that i see them more seldom than low rolls all around.

I have failed at 98% before but I have also HQ'ed at 2%.

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Originally Posted by gadzi_h

I have failed at 98% before but I have also HQ'ed at 2%.

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It isnt so much a matter of possibility, it is the frequency at which it happens. Though in your example i am sure you have completed a craft at 98% chance much more often than at 2%. So the comparison is difficult to make with such a small sample.

SE should offer the cake of winning here too. They should give the people a small amount of EXP if the gather failed, so everyone could feel like a winner.

*98% ... shakes head and leaves the room*


PS: If SE would be intelligent they'd have had reduced the success rate already and offered a solution like mine. Boy, it's alomost 100% what else...

Yea small sample size doesn't allow for proper testing. When I macro craft to be lazy a few hundred ingots my hq rate overall is inline with the % my crafting macro gives, +/- a few which is expected due to item condition variables.

Just to be clear, a one in 6 chance that a dice will land on 5 does not mean that one of 6 rolls will be a 5. You could throw the dice 100 times and not get a single 5.

Likewise, the RNG doesn't refer to previous rolls. Each and every time, it's the same chance as if it'd been the first roll.

Some people get lucky and can get great things despite greater odds, other people not so much.

Heck, for every roll you think you should have succeeded, the person next to you could have gotten that success instead.

Over the millions and billions of calculations, I do believe all the luck equals out to something in the general vicinity of the rates we're told.

That still doesn't mean that 5 will come up any sooner than luck would have it do so however.



Edit: And just to be clear, I'm the unlucky sort who'd roll a 5 for 20 turns in a row if 5 meant I couldn't do anything and with everyone rolling completely different numbers with the exact same dice as me throughout the game >_> Over a few hundred rolls in the game, that might equal out to about a 1 in 6 chance but I'd still lose LOL

People complain about the craziest things. RNG is Random.. shock and awe. I don't see anyone here complaining that they got 5 HQ gathers in a row when their HQ rate is 20% or lower. I don't see people complaining when they HQ 2 or 3 craft with 10% or lower.

If it goes against you it must be broken!

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Originally Posted by mbncd

Just to be clear, a one in 6 chance that a dice will land on 5 does not mean that one of 6 rolls will be a 5. You could throw the dice 100 times and not get a single 5.

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Yes, but the chance of that is only .0000012%, so rather unlikely.

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Likewise, the RNG doesn't refer to previous rolls. Each and every time, it's the same chance as if it'd been the first roll.

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That's not really true, pseudo RNG have a state and are generally designed to provide good distribution of the generated numbers. The amount of unlikely craft/gather sequences makes it very unlikely that SE uses a standard pseudo RNG. They doing something weird with it, but without any official statement it's impossible to tell whether it's intentional or not.

98% no for mean 100%. If RNG make for roll of not 100% but instead 98% 2% will be for miss.