Materia melding failing 21 times in a row

I try to do materia melding but it failing 21 times in a row.
It said 35% chance to success but failing 21 times in a row is almost impossible.
The possibility of failing is 65%
The possibility of failing 21 times in a row is equal to 0.65^21
or 0.01178095479%, this number is below 3 sigma and I don't believe this can be happen.

Item name: Aetheryte Ring
First slot: Control+3 materia (100% chance no problem)
Second slot: Still none (Trying to meld CP+3 materia but failing 21 times in a row)

I am running out of gil, otherwise I would buy more materia and I believe it will keep failing again.

ISP: 3BB
Type of Internet Connection: DSL
Internet Connection Speed: 12m/s
Frequency: Once
World name: Zeromus
Character name: Acholate Narfelas
Class/Level: Goldsmith 50
Race: Hyur F
In-game time: Dunno
Area and coordinates:
Steps:
I buy materia every town, and melding in front of market board

Browser: Google Chrome, Version 31.0.1650.63

With those odds, I'd buy a lottery ticket if I were you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Acholate

It said 35% chance to success but failing 21 times in a row is almost impossible.

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Something that is ALMOST impossible can still happen. It's very unlikely that this would happen to any particular person, BUT when you consider the entire population it's almost inevitable that this sort of thing will happen to SOMEONE. You basically "won" the anti-lottery. The odds of being a big winner on power ball is much lower than your situation, but some lucky few still manage to win it.

if you are failing that much, you probably should take a break and stop melding. don't meld till u become broke. maybe you will get better luck the next day.

The Materia system on this game is done rather poorly and not worth the trouble if you ask me anyway. I would put your time and effort into something else and save yourself the annoyance.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Inquisitor

Something that is ALMOST impossible can still happen. It's very unlikely that this would happen to any particular person, BUT when you consider the entire perhat hopulation it's almost inevitable that this sort of thing will happen to SOMEONE. You basically "won" the anti-lottery. The odds of being a big winner on power ball is much lower than your situation, but some lucky few still manage to win it.

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I know there is a chance something like this could happen, but I feel that if I continue, it will keep feeling. Unfortunately, I am running out of gil to try any further.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Myomi

if you are failing that much, you probably should take a break and stop melding. don't meld till u become broke. maybe you will get better luck the next day.

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You probably right. But I am so pissed off and start to thought this is a bug when I failing around 12 times. I keep melding further because I am curious how this could happen and wanted to prove that this is definitely a bug.

It isn't a bug. It certainly sucks, but you have to remember that every time that you try to meld, it re-rolls for that specific try. A 35% chance means that over thousands and thousands and thousands of melds, the results THEORETICALLY should balance out to 35/100. It doesn't actually mean that if you meld 100 times, that 35 of those times will have been successful. I feel for you though, I have certainly blown up more than enough materia myself!

the RNG on materia melding is just flat out frustrating most of the time. not much can be done about it.

I have been having similar issues. Not quite as bad but still very frustrating. I wish they would implement a system that after 3 failed attempts on the same item, your success rate increases by say 5% for every consecutive failure from then on. That's hardly asking for a lot.

I once failed a 24% success forbidden meld 30 times in a row.

It was a bad day. On the flip side, they were only Tier II/III crafting materia...

I'd very, very much love to hear it's a bug when I fail 80% success rate TWELVE times in a row before in crafting. >.< But you may very well be in the same boat as me and Murphy's Law just loves us. :p

Greetings,

We thank you for posting your concerns regarding a possible system error. I have made sure to submit all of your information to the development team and they will thoroughly investigate this matter based on your report. Unfortunately, I cannot guarantee that a direct response will be posted on this thread, but I do recommend checking Here or Here for any details regarding the development team's investigation.

Thanks for your report!

- Furlamseere