Just a theory. the JP servers are up. I can create a new toon on a new JP server without problem but still can not log in (1017). the conspiracy....
The Japanese are the bread and butter for SE so they block all ISPs not originating in Japan region to ensure they get to play at 3 in the morning. Hopefully some computer savvy programmer can tell me that is not possible.
one time I got in the queue #138, but then got dumped to 1017.
[edit- no sooner I post this, I got in]