Crafting probability does not match with display

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/9938/owuc.png

Have been craftingsince server got up and this is very common.

With something that's supposedly 90% & 80% success rate, there shouldn't even be a 4 in a row occurrence if you take the rule of probability into account.

Most I had was on my weaver failed basic synthesis (90%) 5 times in a row.

I don't really have a problem with this but I would account it as an error or just pure bad luck (that happened over and over again from obt onwards)

Please clarify. Thank you.

90% success rate doesn't mean you cannot fail 5 times in a row. You're just unlucky.

You can have another point of view: 10% of failing rate. Which mean on each try you can fail.

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Originally Posted by thiel

90% success rate doesn't mean you cannot fail 5 times in a row. You're just unlucky.

You can have another point of view: 10% of failing rate. Which mean on each try you can fail.

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Yeap I know what you're saying :) thus I said I may just be very unlucky.

Would just like an official clarification as I'm gonna do an out of 100 test after this (just finished my gathering before servers went down anyways). Just felt a little off as compared to back in Phase 3.

Test Results

100 synths of level 1 bronze ingots on blacksmith using only basic synthesis - 72/100 success.

100 touches of level 1 bronze ingots (4 x touch till break) - 65/100 success.

% is /100 even though if it's a try it shouldn't be that far off.

...try a different order of crafting, you seem to be doing it mildly backwards to me. synthesis untill the craft is 1 step from being complete (unless the status is good or higher, in which case, you use a "touch" action) replenish durability with master's mend or other similar ability> hit number 5 THEN number 4 (to save 1 move for number 4...sorry I don't remember what they're called, and I'm at work, just going off of your screenshot), then use "touch" actions until you have 20 durability left (or 10 if you like to live on the wild side!...I like to play it safe if I'm crafting anything at or above my level) then finish it off with the last synthsis action....I have yet to find a useful time to use the "observe" action at lower levels, as there are better actions to take, on pretty much every "turn" during crafting..

I agree that the success rate of synth does not appear to be 90%.

Honestly, to get an accurate test, you'd have to do 1,000 or even 10,000 tests. Odds of probability are that there are going to be some outlayers. Not saying it might not be off, but a test of 100 is almost never accurate. Even if its working, you're going to have some people go over that percentage and some under.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Punainen

I agree that eyeballing it is not a statistically relevant source to determine an outcome.

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fixed.
/10char