How many people do you know who are waiting for 2.0?

I myself know at least 3 people who are wanting to try out the new game on PS3 when it comes. How many do you know?

Because last I checked, currently the active server populations are around 9000 total. With about 43,000 players registered on lodestone. (Not an accurate number, not even official, but still).

That's sad. By any MMORPG terms, that's really bad numbers.

So I got to thinkin'. And I came up with an equation to determine the Number of players on 2.0 release.

P + (P * X) + B - C = N

where
P= current player base = ~43,000
X= average number of players that P know will play in 2.0
B= Unknown population that will buy 2.0
C= Current players who hate 2.0 and leave. C is a % of P, and therefore cannot be greater than 43k.
N= Playerbase upon 2.0 launch

Since B is unknowable, there's not much we can do to determine that. We can surf 4-chan or look at comments on the trailer, but it wouldn't give us any hard numbers to use. Those B people will just show up at 2.0 and be like, "HEY WOW, I'VE NEVER PLAYED THIS GAME BEFORE LOL" and us P people will be all like "LOL LOOK AT MY GOOBBUE U JELLY?" and so on and something like that.

C is inconsequential. C represents the players who are stubbornly playing now, despite knowing that their belovedly broken game is going to be fixed. It's basically a number that represents people who like the game better as it is now. C can also never be greater than P. So we'll call C a % of P. Probably a very, very small percentage. Like say, 1% of P, or 430 people. Probably even less than that. C people probably still know X people, that's why it's left outside the parentheses. Why am I even bringing C up? (because I'm predicting forum twats trying to start pointless arguments)

But X. X we do know. Maybe not as a whole, but it's something we can figure out. Right here in this thread, maybe. If say on average, everyone here reports that they know about 3 people waiting to play, that triples the player numbers.

43k + (43k * 3) + B - C = 172,000 + B - C = N

So help me in my little math experiment! Post how many people you know that will try this game at 2.0 launch! Let's determine X~

Current Value of X = 38 / 9 = 4.2
(as of 9:30 AM Central 7/29. based on 9 replies that supplied numbers)

5+ from Dtoid
6 old XI friends
4 friends in real life.

Your data won't work unless for each person in X is given a name as well. If my LS mate and I both post we know 3 people it is possible that we know the same 3 people. So if you were to do this properly you would need to have a list of names, remove the repeats, tally up how many people are on the list, and then divide by the number of people who posted to find the proper value for X.

Also your formula would have the be:

P + (P * X) + B - C = N

This is because yeah you are adding the people we know of that will buy the game and the unknown population as well, but you are completely leaving out the current playerbase in the final number.


To help the thread, I currently know 0 people. I will get back to you if I remember any.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Isaaru

Your data won't work unless for each person in X is given a name as well. If my LS mate and I both post we know 3 people it is possible that we know the same 3 people. So if you were to do this properly you would need to have a list of names, remove the repeats, tally up how many people are on the list, and then divide by the number of people who posted to find the proper value for X.

Also your formula would have the be:

P + (P * X) + B - C = N

This is because yeah you are adding the people we know of that will buy the game and the unknown population as well, but you are completely leaving out the current playerbase in the final number.


To help the thread, I currently know 0 people. I will get back to you if I remember any.

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Ah, you're right there! I'll adjust.

As for individual names, Yeah, you're totally right. But this is a for-fun thing, and I don't have time to be any more tedious than averaging up people's numbers here. And also, I doubt everyone would be willing to post names of each individual person they know, to the point that I could cross-check names already on the list accurately (we all know someone named John. Does that make John the same person? Nah). So I'm not gonna do it, sorries~

Yeah I understand, just thought I'd post it. I like math :D

I'll be sure to post back if I do remember or hear from anyone!

how many stay around after there free month and how many currents will stay after the next big mmo.

Myself and two other people.

you're using math when you should use SCIENCE !

If someone has already bought the game, I would expect them to come back to test out 2.0 despite what they claim on forums...etc. There will be a free month on 2.0 release so there is no additional investment needed. This "no-investment needed" crowd will be the key review revision crowd.

According to:
http://www.vgchartz.com/game/35106/f...sy-xiv-online/
Total sales = 640k

This ~600k number overlaps with X, so I'll redefine it a little.
X = People who is interested in 2.0 but has not bought the game
R = Returning players interested in 2.0.

P + (P * X) + B + R - C = N

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At the end of the day, I would think B+R >> P + (P * X) - C, so you can probably just estimate the numbers with that alone.

Given the bad 1.0 release, I would expect the B crowd to hold a little until the R crowd gives some reviews before buying, i.e. unlikely to jump in blind.

All things considered, I would give 300k (~50%) as a ballpark number for 2.0 launch. Whether this increases later, will depend heavily on R crowd's reviews.

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That said, I only know about 2 people in B, about ~10 in X (former LS mates who dropped the game).

My friend Ronnie (who I will be buying FFXIV :D)
My friend Ros Krieger is playing it casually until 2.0, and has another 5 or 6 people, each which told 7 or 8 people... Got a lot of cool cousins which is cool.
A bunch of my old guildmates from Shin Megami Tensei: IMAGINE before it was taken by atlus and practically forgotten.

2.0's gonna be fun. Might start my own Free Company.