Empyreum Lottery Tips

General Tips

• The number of entrants on a given plot will be public. This will have significant ramifications on the distribution of entries.
• It is best to enter later in the lottery period to ensure your chosen plot has the least amount of entrants. There is one exception to this at the end of the post.
• This will be common knowledge, so most identical plots (same plot, different ward) should have a similar amount of entrants as people logically enter the smallest pool.
• Be careful to check if you are in a Personal Lottery Ward or of FC Personal lottery ward. It's possible there won't be a warning at the placard since there is only one choice at that point. It is possible that the main division is for FC use and the subdivision is for personal use.

**NOTE**: From here on I will be assuming identical plots (same plot, different ward) will have near similar amounts of entries.

How to increase your odds of getting an FC house

• Consider having a person or two enter on few low entry smalls to hedge your bets.
• For a specific plot, it is best for your FC members to split their entries across as many wards as possible.

Example with 2 FC entrants:
Consider a case where every plot only has 1 other entrant. If you both enter the same plot you only have a 67% chance of winning. If you enter two separate plots there is a 75% chance you get a plot. There is a 25% chance you win both and must pay a penalty, but it was probably worth it.

Example with 10 FC entrants:
Assume the desired plots all have 89 entrants. If all 10 members enter on a single plot, your odds will be 10 out of 99 which is 10.1%. If instead each member split into their own unique lottery you would have 10 chances to win a 1/90 lottery - This is a 10.57% chance.

How to increase your odds of getting a personal house

• Friends should never enter a lottery for the same plot as it makes it impossible for both people to win.
• If you and your friends will be tenants together, it is still best that each person enters a lottery for a different identical plot (same plot, different wards).

Example with 1 Friend:
Consider a case where every plot only has 1 other entrant. If you both enter the same plot you only have a 67% chance of winning. If you enter two separate plots there is a 75% chance you get one plot, and a 25% chance you both get a plot.

THE BIG EXCEPTION - How to Practically Guarantee your VERY Large FC Wins

• If you are the owner of a very large, very well funded FC then it is likely your best choice is to have everyone enter the lottery for the same plot, as soon as possible. This will discourage competition and if your entries are greater than the average for identical plots (same plot, different ward), then no rational player would compete. Otherwise, you ensure the least amount of competition possible.

I think you're making some bad assumptions here.

Common knowledge, like common sense, isn't actually common. Most players aren't after min/max optimization and so aren't searching for tips/tricks. They usually approach content based on convenience or impulse, and sometimes even superstition ("12 is my lucky number so I want my plot to be in ward 12").

Entries will not end up evenly divided between the same plot in different wards (larges will probably be an exception due to scarcity) because of what I said about convenience, impulse and superstition. Subdivisions get far less attention than the main wards since players are dumped in the main wards on entry (the main ward is convenient - the subdivision is not). There are also FCs that are "friends" and will likely want to get their plots in the same ward so will put all their entries into the chosen ward.

Your own numbers show that FC entry splitting for the same plot across multiple wards FCs doesn't create a statistically significant improvement to chances of winning so why suggest it? FCs are going to be better off having one or two entries on small plots with no or low entry counts (back up for the sake of at least getting any house at all) then putting the rest of their entries on a single desired plot with the lowest entry count as close to the end of the lottery period as possible.

I agree that waiting as long as possible to place entries is a good idea with one exception, but I don't agree about the exception. A FC with one billion gil would still only have 20-25 entries for a large. That's not a huge amount when there are only 144 larges total, at least half of those are going to be in individual wards, and it's really not that hard to get 40-50 million gil (FCs are already reliant on member donations when they don't have a house, I could fund several 50 million gil entries by myself knowing I'd get the gil back on either all or all but one). It might be a deterrent at the beginning of the lottery period but won't be for long.

On the other hand, a FC that's desperate for any house at all is going to have a better chance by finding a small in a bad location and dumping all but one of their entries on it at the start of the lottery period. Immediately seeing a large number of entries on a bad small will send other buyers off to different plots that have no or low bid counts. The reserved entry can be saved for the end of the lottery period in case others do start bidding on the bad plot and another plot can be found with no or only one bidder.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

words

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Apologies if the OP wasn't totally clear as I ran out of characters, I wasn't asking for feedback. All scenarios described are mathematical facts.

Everyone is welcome to post your own tips and tricks in this thread too!

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Originally Posted by BloodyStream

Apologies if the OP wasn't totally clear as I ran out of characters...

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On this, when you make post and hit the text character limit, go ahead and Post the message, then go back in and Edit it.
This way you can add on to the post above the text character limit.

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Originally Posted by Jojoya

Common knowledge, like common sense, isn't actually common. Most players aren't after min/max optimization and so aren't searching for tips/tricks.

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I don't think it's unreasonable for someone to go "this is a new system, let me throw out some advice for those looking for it". No where in the post does OP say "you ARE required to listen to this". Besides, common knowledge becomes common sense once it's shared around with others. If you're not looking for tips (or looking to provide tips), this post isn't for you. You don't need to provide an "um actually" to every single post you come across.

A tip that sort of builds off what OP was saying is to view this as teamwork. Get help from your friends, FC mates, and so on. Your chances will be much higher if you work alongside others as opposed to working alone. For those planning on rushing to a plot when 6.1 comes up, I suggest trying to save up money now. For free companies, this absolutely goes a lot faster when the group collaborates! Gather as a group! Craft as a group! Put funds together and things will go a lot quicker.

One thing not mentioned here is that bids for plots are lodged at a placard. This means a large FC could camp a placard and intimdate *cough* inform potential competitors that this plot is spoken for.

If the placard isn't camped, then there will be no way for a potential bidder to know if many FCs have lodged bids, or a single FC, so camping would make sense.

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Originally Posted by KidHeracles

This means a large FC could camp a placard and intimdate *cough* inform potential competitors that this plot is spoken for.

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This is an unbelievably bad idea. If a house is up for a lottery, then anyone with the right to place a bid on it is allowed. Attempted intimidation or interference with someone else putting in a bid is 100% harassment and against ToS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KidHeracles

One thing not mentioned here is that bids for plots are lodged at a placard. This means a large FC could camp a placard and intimdate *cough* inform potential competitors that this plot is spoken for.

If the placard isn't camped, then there will be no way for a potential bidder to know if many FCs have lodged bids, or a single FC, so camping would make sense.

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This is reportable behavior. I would advise against it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KidHeracles

One thing not mentioned here is that bids for plots are lodged at a placard. This means a large FC could camp a placard and intimdate *cough* inform potential competitors that this plot is spoken for.

If the placard isn't camped, then there will be no way for a potential bidder to know if many FCs have lodged bids, or a single FC, so camping would make sense.

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I think people underestimate the interest there will be in housing. You'd need an awfully large FC with a huge war chest (billions of gil) to intimidate others from casting their lot on that plot.

Consider the following, some estimates say that FFXIV has anywhere from 3.6M daily players (not unique players) to 36M total players. There are roughly 70 servers. That's about 51,000 players per server on the low end. As of today, there are 5.760 plots per server (24 wards, 60 plots per ward, 4 zones). That results in about 10% of the game's population having a house. If every plot were the same value to the playerbase, we will have 1,440 new houses on servers that have about 46,000 players that want a house. That yields roughly 30 players per plot of land all vying to win that lottery.

So even if you had 100 players in an FC each with 70M gil, I'd expect to see 30 other players show up to compete that plot of land regardless of how many tickets your FC has for that plot of land.